The 10th Anniversary NDNation Probability Poll

Posted on by SEE

The 10th NDNation Probability Poll is underway. In theory, the probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just “ND is favored over X!” We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Last year, the optimists won out (and this was before the big injuries.) Fans expected 8.3 wins overall and the optimists expected 10.4 wins.

Without further ado, the 2016 survey:

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12 thoughts on “The 10th Anniversary NDNation Probability Poll”

  3. Huh says:

    > Fans expected 8.3 wins overall and the optimists expected 10.4 wins.

    What does that mean? Are you just calling anyone above the average an optimist?

    It’d be interesting to see some analysis over all 10 years of just the overall expectation vs reality (not separating “optimists” or “pessimists”). Or even a breakdown of each type of game now that there’s a little bit of data, for example, for all the games the collective ranked as 65%-75% winnable, ND won X% of them.

  5. PC says:

    I’d generally consider myself an optimist going into a season but I don’t love the fact our Irish will be relying on so many inexperienced players. I’m taking a wait and see approach on the 2 Qbs because I cant see Kelly staying with it for long. Inevitably someone will outplay the other and this battle will take care of itself. Its probably one of the hardest years to predict because while the schedule seems fairly manageable the inexperience at WR and holes on D leave me thinking 10-2 with losses at NC ST and USC.
    Here’s hoping we stay healthier then last year and are fighting for a playoff spot into November!

  6. CD1 says:

    Worried about the defensive secondary…they will learn throughout the year, but not sure if they have enough experienced not to get burned — especially in the BVG scheme. 10-2 or 9-3 seems the most realistic to me…but I’d love to be wrong!

  7. NDBonecrusher says:

    Agree with PC. Trying to predict this year is harder than trying to predict the election, and can make us look just as foolish! We only have a few “facts”, which are big on observation and small on data. The schedule seems favorable for a playoff run. Opponents are very green at QB. We are very green at WR and defensive secondary. Not having Jones sucks. We ought to be able to run the ball all day. Whichever QB is behind center will be more than adequate. Hell if I know what any of this will translate into, but that’s not keeping me from being in the optimist column. Hoping for a playoff spot is not silly.

  8. elgreco89 says:

    Just have a bad feeling about this season. In college football a great QB can take you far. But we have no defense. I say 8-5. (with a bowl loss)

  9. irishhawk50 says:

    We all seem optimistic and I guess with good reason considering the talent on the offensive side of the ball and a “down” year for most of our better opponents. However I still don’t have faith in BVG and considering the talent he had last year and what he produced (the D lost both the Clemson game spotting them 14 and the Stanford game not holding them for less than a minute to end the game). I am worried about what he can do this year. I hope I am wrong, but 10-2 might be optimistic.