For the 11th year the NDNation Probability Poll is in and the relative success of 2015 combined with the giant let down of 2016 left a bitter taste on the mouths of the faithful heading into 2017.
The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just ” is ND better than X”? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:
2018 Findings
- On average, fans expect approximately 7.2 wins this year (Down from 8.9).
- At the most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 5%) fans are slightly more optimistic and expect 10.7 wins (UP from 10.3.)
- The pessimists are wildly more pessimistic; the pessimistic boundary expects 4.8 wins this season (Down from 7.5.)
There seem to be five levels of opponents
- The Underdogs: Southern Cal, Stanford, Georgia
- The coin tosses: Miami, Michigan State
- The slight favorites: UNC, NC State
- The solid favorites: Navy, BC
- The heavy favorites: Wake Forest, Temple, Miami(OH)
Here are the rolled up results with the 5% cutoff:
| 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | |
| Temple | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 17% | 24% | 30% | 16% |
| Georgia | 2% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 18% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| BC | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 11% | 17% | 25% | 24% | 13% | 6% |
| MSU | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 27% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% |
| Miami (Oh) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 17% | 37% | 30% |
| UNC | 1% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 24% | 26% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% |
| Southern Cal | 6% | 13% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| NC State | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 16% | 26% | 23% | 13% | 5% | 3% |
| Wake Forest | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 8% | 19% | 28% | 25% | 12% |
| Miami | 1% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 16% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| Navy | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 15% | 19% | 24% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| Stanford | 4% | 10% | 15% | 19% | 18% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
And here’s the roll-up of the pessimistic, optimistic and upper bounds:
| Opponent | Lower | Avg | Upper |
| Temple | 60.0% | 80.4% | 100.0% |
| Georgia | 10.0% | 43.4% | 70.0% |
| BC | 50.0% | 71.2% | 100.0% |
| MSU | 30.0% | 54.2% | 100.0% |
| Miami (Oh) | 70.0% | 85.7% | 100.0% |
| UNC | 30.0% | 58.7% | 90.0% |
| Southern Cal | 0.0% | 32.1% | 60.0% |
| NC State | 40.0% | 61.5% | 90.0% |
| Wake Forest | 60.0% | 77.6% | 100.0% |
| Miami | 20.0% | 47.9% | 70.0% |
| Navy | 60.00% | 67.3% | 90.0% |
| Stanford | 50.00% | 37.2% | 100.0% |
| Totals | 4.8 | 7.2 | 10.7 |
Tom says:
14-0 National Champs! You heard it here first!
Lazarus says:
ND Choo Choo!
radical says:
We’ve gone beyond Poe’s Law, we’re now living in Poe’s Universe — it’s irony all the way down.
Jimbo says:
You can’t be sober lol. ND has the best 4 loss coach in the country. 8-4.
BiggestNDFan says:
No, Tommy Boy, they didn’t hear it from you first.
They heard it from me first. As you well know. I’ve been predicting an undefeated 2017 season since my mom first let me go on the computer eight years ago. I said no matter who was coaching in 2017, no matter who the players, no matter who the opponents, no matter what the playoff system, ND would win every game!
That’s why I’m a bigger ND fan than you are. Because you didn’t have the guts to predict it back then.
And you know what? I’m hereby predicting undefeated national championships in 2018, in 2019, and in 2020. Too late. Once again everyone heard it from me. Go cry, Mr. Pinocchio.
And you know why else I’m a biglyer fan than you? Because I’m predicting ND’s first team defense won’t be scored on this year. Every opponent point will come in garbage time against our scrubs. You didn’t say that one first, did you?
Also, my predictions are not based on any analysis or thought–just the gut feeling of being a Big ND Fan! Which proves they are pure. You hesitated–just for for half a second to consider the changes on our coaching staff–before making your prediction. Which means it is tainted. And not that of a real Irish fan. You liar.
Everyone on all the ND message boards admires me for my fanhoodness. Which is longer than yours.
Go Irish, beat Tulane! Nuff said
2017 says:
They could win every game. USC is not all that. The biggest challenge is ND vs. ND and just playing mistake free football.
Rallying Son says:
GREAT POST, TOM!!!! YOUR THE MOST AWESOMEST TRUEST FAN OF ALL TIME!!!!! WE WILL NEVER EVER EVER FORGET WHERE WE HEARD IT FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tom says:
Thanks. If you don’t believe it can happen, it won’t. Go Irish!
RunTheBall says:
The schedule appears very tricky with tough games scattered throughout. I’m not as high on Miami as others but USC could win it all and Georgia and Stanford should contend for conference titles. I’d love to see us pound the run and dominate time of possession. If they can, maybe this defense can be competent but if not they will get exposed badly! Don’t buy into the idea this is a good defense -it’s not and had little depth on top off it. I’ll say 8-4 with blowout losses to Georgia and USC. Heartbreakers to UNC and Stanford.
Dan says:
I predict that after the dust settles we’ll look back on the season and see missed opportunities at Stanford and UNC, close losses. We’ll also beat Georgia and get pounded by USC. I feel confident about Michigan State and Miami.
ChazND says:
I can’t see more than a plus five hundred season with BK. Too many seasons lost with talent. Watch what Joe Moorehead does with Penn State this year on offense … he’s the man who can restore this program to relevance and he wants to be here
Jack Weiss says:
If our offense doesn’t average over 35 a game, something”s very wrong…even agains the big guys. Of course, the jury is out on our defense. But look, it’s got to improve over the gaffs in the second halves of games last year. And yeah, if we can keep the ball off the ground and have someone other than BK calling plays, we should light it up.
MTW says:
If we beat Georgia and Wimbush gets ” comfortable “, anything possible since offense on paper can outscore anyone.
(Please keep Kelly away from play calling)
If we lose to Georgia, 8-4