Led by Coordinator Brent Venables’ stout defense and sophomore dual-threat quarterback DeShaun Watson, the #11/12 Clemson Tigers hope to slay the #6/7 Fighting Irish in college football’s original Death Valley Saturday night (8 PM, ABC TV). This game looks to be a key resume builder for two programs with playoff aspirations.

The Irish and Tigers have met only twice before, back in the heyday of Clemson football. The 1977 national championship Irish went to Clemson in November and won, 21-17, while in 1979 the Tigers returned the favor, 16-10. Under Head Coach Danny Ford, Clemson and colorful freshman defensive lineman William “The Refrigerator” Perry would win the 1981 national title, but in November of 1982 would receive harsh sanctions from the NCAA for numerous violations spanning 1977 to 1982.

Clemson faithful have been known to leave their signature white-on-orange tiger paws on anything and everything in sight. The Irish can expect a raucous crowd of 81,500, but one that can be rattled if the Irish can gain an early advantage. “Clemsoning” is defined by the Urban Dictionary as “The act of delivering an inexplicably disappointing performance, usually within the context of a college football season,” but the Irish and their faithful can count on that happening this Saturday at their own peril. A stiff defense to complement the Tigers’ tradition of dynamic playmakers (Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Spiller were all N.F.L. 1st round picks) could make them a championship team. As it is, Clemson joins Alabama and Oregon as the only Power Five programs with ten wins in each of the past four seasons.

Through three games, the Clemson defense has sustained the excellence shown under Venables last year when it finished tops in the nation in yards allowed per game (260.8), yards allowed per play (4.03), tackles for loss per game (10.1) and eight other defensive categories. Yes, they led the nation in 11 defensive categories. The good news is only three defensive starters return; seven of last year’s were NFL draft picks. The bad news is Clemson appears to have reloaded and are led junior DE Shaq Lawson with 2.5 sacks so far this year after recording 3.5 all last season. The 2015 Tigers have surrendered only 281 rushing yards total through three games and absolutely clamped down on Louisville, giving up 19 yards on 28 rushes.

These two teams have a number of striking similarities: both lost a key playmaker on the opening drive of the season (Tarean Folston for ND, WR Mike Williams for Clemson after he slammed into the goalpost on a TD catch). Both have sophomore quarterbacks whose names are homophones (DeShone/DeShaun). Both use nearly identical offensive formations and make extensive use of WR screens and other quick passes counting on dynamic playmakers to excel one-on-one in the open field.

Notre Dame’s Offense versus Clemson’s Defense

The Irish are easily the best offense Clemson will have faced thus far, but Clemson’s D likewise looks far superior to ND’s previous opponents. DE Lawson leads a dynamic group that will challenge ND’s offensive line to match their athleticism. Four different defensive linemen for Clemson have recorded at least one sack so far this year. Carlos Watkins, a 6’3”, 300-pound lineman, returned an interception 15 yards for a touchdown against Appalachian State.

Weakside linebacker Brian Boulware is a 5’11”, 240-pound sparkplug who likes to come on delayed blitzes up the middle. Against Louisville, Clemson also used some well-timed safety blitzes from the blind side for additional pressure, producing a sack by safety T.J. Green.
The strength of the Clemson defense may be its secondary, led by cornerback Mackensie Alexander, a first team Freshman All-American last year. Passers are avoiding his side of the field, but three other Tiger DBs already have interceptions this year, as does LB Boulware.
In his first start in a very hostile environment, DeShone Kizer will have to maintain his poise and elusiveness. If the Irish offensive line can continue to dominate, the Irish will stay balanced and on schedule (sorry for the cliché) leading to big play opportunities. Venables has said he looks forward to the matchup of Will Fuller versus cover man Mackensie Alexander, and whoever gets the better of it could go a long way toward determining the winner. This should be a great chance to use Notre Dame’s other gifted receivers to keep the defense honest. Louisville managed to move the ball on occasion, but the Tiger defense killed a number of drives with tackles for loss. The Irish need to avoid negative plays and bully the young Tigers, which will mean Kizer recognizing blitzes and getting the Irish into the right play. If C.J. Procise goes for 100 yards, that should signify an Irish victory, barring turnovers.

Clemson’s Offense versus Notre Dame’s Defense

QB Watson was considered by many the top signal caller in the recruiting class of 2014, and he saw significant action (8 games) for the Tigers as an early enrollee true freshman despite two injuries that made him miss five games. He runs well but is considered a gifted passer, with his QB rating of 165.31 actually down from last year’s 188.57. One reason for the decline: he already has more interceptions this year (3 against 7 TD Passes) than he had all last season, when he gave up 2 picks but threw 14 TDs. Against Louisville, he threw interceptions early in each half, turnovers that helped keep the game closer than it needed to be. His other interception was on the opening drive against App State, perhaps suggesting that his decision-making is lacking on early, scripted plays.
The Tigers’ bread-and-butter is wide receiver screens out of trips formations, daring the defense to play tight by getting the ball in the hands of highly recruited skill players like WR Artavis Scott (another Freshman All-American last year) and Ray Ray McCloud. The Clemson receivers block well for each other, and even when opposing defenses tackle effectively in the open field their offense routinely chews up 5 to 8 yards per completion. Scott has 20 receptions so far this year for 188 yards and two TDs; McCloud is next with 13 catches for 113 yards. Charone Peake is a deep threat with two TDs among his 7 catches for 110 yards.
Sophomore running back Wayne Gallman is a powerful workhorse averaging 5.85 yards per carry and 103.3 per game. The Tigers run the kind of up-tempo spread offense that caused the Irish defense so much trouble much of last season. This matchup will be a true test of whether Brian Van Gorder’s crew has found a way to stop or slow the attacks that caused havoc in 2014 and whether the pass defense can improve on its performances against Virginia and UMass.
On the line, Clemson’s starting left tackle is 6’6”, 285 pound freshman Mitch Hyatt. The Irish are likely to target him with blitzes and pressure to disrupt Clemson’s flow. As much as any opponent this side of USC, Clemson offers the Irish secondary the chance to match blue chip versus blue chip and see who wins. Clemson’s receivers have size and speed, so expect any mistakes by the Irish backside to be costly.

Special Teams

Again like the Irish, the Tigers have a freshman place kicker, Greg Huegel, who is perfect so far on PATs and four for five in field goals. His first field goal of the year, however, was a “best of three” as Wofford was offside on misses from 49 and 44 yards, enabling him to finally make a 39 yarder. Punter Andy Teasdall averages 38 yards per kick. If Tyler Newsome continues to punt with the distance and accuracy shown against UMass, ND has a decided advantage in that phase, though the Irish need to sort out the problems that have led Justin Yoon to clank a few against the upright.
Scott and McCloud share the punt and kick return duties. Both are dangerous, though the longest return to date was a 29-yarder by Scott. The Clemson coverage teams gave up a kickoff return TD to Louisville and App State nearly broke the opening kickoff as well. With only 21 percent of Huegel’s kickoffs leading to touchbacks, it looks like Amir Carlisle should have some opportunities if the Irish blockers can give him a crease. Against Clemson, returners have routinely fielded kickoffs at the 10 and taken them past the 35.

Summary

Dabo Swinney’s name and locker-room dancing have inspired some lampooning, but he has rebuilt Clemson into a contender. If they can live up to their billing as preseason favorites to win the ACC, they may return to the elite status the program projected in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. A road win for the Irish against a talented team with 16 days to prepare (!) would solidify the Irish as a legitimate playoff contender.

And a few questions whose answers may determine the outcome:

1. Will Kizer and the younthful Irish be able to handle the “Death Valley” atmosphere?
2. Will the long layoff aid the Tigers in a measurable way?
3. Can the Irish offensive line continue to dominate against a very talented defensive line?
4. Will BVG’s defense contain Clemson’s playmakers and find ways to force Watson into turnovers?
5. Must Fuller become a decoy, or can he continue to excel against a reputed lockdown corner?
6. Was Clemson’s win over 0-3 Louisville deceptively good, or are they not really a top ten team?

Prediction*

The Irish have started strong each game so far outscoring opponents in the first quarter 47-6. But the second quarter is an entirely different story, as the Irish have been outscored 30-35. Notre Dame should have a tougher time under the lights at Clemson, but expect BK and crew to have them sharp and ready. If they get the early lead, they must avoid the second quarter swoon. The keys will be maintaining sharpness as they seemed to do against Texas, Kizer keeping his poise, and the pass defense having short memories in case they give up a big play. With our O line, we can be dominant.
Expect the Irish defense to show improvement and the many outstanding weapons on offense to be too much for the Tigers to handle for a full 60 minutes. Irish win, 34-24.

*As one presently tied for 172nd in the OWHF prediction contest, I freely admit I’m lousy at predictions since I go more with my heart than my head.