Kabong steps in for Vannie, who is taking some time off.

Only four times in the last 20 years have the Fighting Irish managed to complete a season with a win total in the double digits.  Brian Kelly and his charges will attempt to make it five on New Years Day when they take on the LSU Tigers in the Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.  While the game falls outside the vaunted “New Years Day Six”, attrition on both sidelines has created an interesting storyline, as both teams’ fanbases look to see which group will overcome their recent adversity.

To call the Tigers’ route to the post-season uneven is an understatement.  The addition of Pitt’s Matt Canada was supposed to revitalize the LSU offense under interim-turned-head-coach Ed Orgeron.  But the two reportedly clashed over philosophies, and the Tigers found themselves at 3-2 after a wipeout at Mississippi State and being stunned at home against upstart Troy.  After a closed-door meeting between the two to “get on the same page”, the Tigers righted the ship, winning at #21 Florida and against #10 Auburn, and gave #4 Alabama all they could handle in Tuscaloosa.

Notre Dame Offense vs. LSU Defense

Statistically, the 11th-ranked Tiger defense will be the third-best unit Notre Dame will have faced this season.  They give up less than five yards per play and 18 points per game.  But those stats were generated against offenses a lot less powerful than Notre Dame’s.  The Irish offensive line represents a challenge the likes of which LSU hasn’t seen, and the Tigers will have to meet that challenge without three of their linebackers — Arden Key, Donnie Alexander, and Corey Thompson will not suit up and will be replaced by underclassmen.  Irish back Josh Adams, who looked very gimpy down the stretch this season, contends he’s tanned rested and ready for the game.  If it allows him to be the Josh Adams who was in Heisman contention, that’s good news for ND fans, especially against a depleted Tiger front seven.

But whether or not it’s enough to offset the loss of three of Brandon Wimbush’s top pass targets remains to be seen.  Chase Claypool was injured during bowl preparations, and his fellow receiver Kevin Stepherson was suspended after being arrested for shoplifting prior to departing for Orlando.  With tight end Alize Mack also suspended, almost half of Notre Dame’s receiving yards this season will be watching the game on television instead of from the sidelines.  Leading receiver Equanimious St. Brown remains available, but it will be up to players like Durham Smythe and Miles Boykin to pick up the slack and prevent LSU from targeting Wimbush and Adams.

Notre Dame Defense vs. LSU Offense

Tigers star RB Darius Guice has decided not to follow the recent trend of high potential draft picks skipping non-playoff bowl games, so Notre Dame will get a full dose of his 100+ yards per game.  But Guice missed practice time to deal with what was called “nagging injuries”, so he may not be at 100 percent.

Danny Etling, on the other hand, certainly will be.  The senior is an outstanding field general who throws an interception only once in every 73 passes, which is good enough for second best in the history of the SEC.  While the Fighting Irish front seven is stout, Notre Dame’s defensive backfield has been much more problematic, and probably won’t make Etling’s life too difficult on Monday.  The hope for Irish fans will be the ability of Te’von Coney and Jerry Tillery to overwhelm the inexperienced LSU offensive line and pressure Etling into sacks and mistakes.

Special Teams

For once, it’s the opponent that has to worry about their special teams.  Kickoff specialist Cameron Gamble is ineligible for the game, so the Tigers will have to find someone else to handle the job.  More returnable kickoffs may be an opportunity for CJ Sanders to finally show some of the speed we’ve seen tantalizing glimpses of along the way in 2017.  While there isn’t a lot of change on the ND side, it’s not like Special Teams have been a boon, so….

Summary

Both teams are going into this game with unknowns, and as trite as it will sound, the winner will be the team which overcomes its recent adversity most successfully.  Brandon Wimbush may have no one to throw to, but the LSU defense has no one to sack him.  It’s the quintessential stoppable force meeting the movable object.  This is why Adams will be critical to Notre Dame’s success, even more than he usually is, and it will be the ability of the Irish defense to stop the Tigers which will decide the game.

Here are the questions rattling around in my brain right now:

How much improvement should we expect to see in Brandon Wimbush after a month of work?

Are Adams and Guice as healthy as we’re being told?

Can Notre Dame’s cornerbacks make a difference against Etling?

Will Canada’s impending departure affect how the Tigers play?

Can CJ Sanders take advantage of LSU’s kickoff instability to make a game-affecting play?

Who would win a pie-eating contest between Brian Kelly and Ed Orgeron?

Prediction

With the Fighting Irish receiver corps decimated, the Tiger defense will focus on stopping Adams and Wimbush on the ground and put pressure on Wimbush to make good decisions throwing the ball.  But without their missing linebackers, LSU won’t be able to bring the pressure they would like, and Wimbush will look improved over his late-season outings.  Notre Dame will return to the grind-it-out ground-based style that won them plenty of games early in the season, keeping the ball away from Etling and Guice, and while they’ll do some damage, it won’t be enough.

NOTRE DAME 24, LSU 14