Notre Dame will host archrival USC on Saturday in a game that has become even more significant than usual in determining the near term future of both programs. The Fighting Irish are hanging onto slim playoff hopes and have precious few remaining opportunities to put an impressive victory on the board against a quality opponent, while the 3-2 Trojans are simply a mess after losing two of three conference games and parting ways with their troubled head coach in a very public and embarrassing manner. The game will be nationally televised on NBC beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time. Notre Dame will use the occasion to honor alums Tim Brown and Jerome Betttis, who were recently elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

USC coach Steve Sarkisian, who was 12-6 in his second year at the helm, was fired earlier this week and replaced on an interim basis by Offensive Coordinator Clay Helton. Sarkisian sought treatment for substance abuse and was placed on a leave of absence by the school on Sunday, but was fired the next day by Athletic Director Pat Haden when stories of his various alcohol-fueled escapades at USC and Washington began to surface in the media.

Helton is in his sixth year at USC, and has previously served as interim head coach in 2013 in a Trojan victory over Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl. This occurred as Sarkisian was preparing to join the Trojans after being selected to replace then-interim coach Ed Orgeron, who had been leading the team since Lane Kiffin was fired in September 2013. Despite this relatively unstable environment, USC will field one of the nation’s most talented teams against Notre Dame, whom they defeated by 49-14 last November in the Coliseum. One positive note fans should remember about Sarkisian is that he graciously called off the dogs very early in last year’s contest when he could have easily rung up 70 points and humiliated the depleted and defenseless Irish.

Quarterback Cody Kessler is surrounded by elite skill position talent, but mediocre play by the offensive line has put a damper on the offensive fireworks this season. To make matters worse, center Max Tuerk went down with an injury last week against Washington and is lost for the season. Notre Dame escaped last week’s battle with Navy without losing any more players to injury, but the Irish remain five starters down from the preseason after Tarean Folston, Jarron Jones, Malik Zaire, Drew Tranquill and Durham Smythe were lost for the year. Guard Quenton Nelson and safety Avery Sebastian remain out of the lineup, but are expected to return later this month.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

The Trojans have the athletes to follow the Clemson plan, which is to load up against the run and let its best cover man shadow Will Fuller. Cornerback Adoree Jackson is all of that and more for USC. Jackson is a dominant player who is also the team’s third leading pass receiver and returns both punts and kickoffs. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Irish fans will hold their breath whenever he touches the ball. To combat USC’s strategy, Notre Dame must involve its other receivers and tight ends in the passing game while running the ball right at the Trojans instead of the slow developing stretch plays that won’t work against a team as fast as USC in pursuit.

The down linemen in Troy’s 3-4 alignment are seniors Antwaun Woods, Claude Pelon and Delvon Simmons. All are a bit banged up, and the latest word is that Pelon will be unable to play on Saturday. Greg Townsend is next in line. A very deep and fast linebacking corps is led by veteran Su’a Cravens, while freshman Porter Gustin has been coming on strong of late to move into the rotation. The best player in this group may be another freshman, Cameron Smith, who leads the team in tackles.

USC’s secondary is well-stocked with talented athletes. Senior Kevon Seymour is a three year starter at cornerback opposite Jackson, and freshman Iman Marshall has played well in reserve. Veteran safeties John Plattenberg and Leon McQuay complete the starting group with Chris Hawkins and Marvell Tell right behind them.

Notre Dame may experience tough sledding against USC’s swarming defenders early in the contest. Coach Brian Kelly must not abandon the run, but instead keep pounding away at them with C.J. Prosise and maintain possession of the ball with an efficient passing attack. DeShone Kizer must be poised enough to locate an open receiver rather than try to force the ball into coverage. This strategy should pay dividends in the second half, provided the Irish do not find themselves significantly behind on the scoreboard by then.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The ability of USC’s offensive line to protect Kessler is likely to be the key to the outcome. The senior lit up Arizona State on the road two weeks ago with a 375-yard, five touchdown performance in a 42-14 romp. At that point in the season he had completed 73% of his passes for over 300 yards per game, with 15 touchdowns and only one interception. A few days later, Washington pounded him with a relentless rush. Kessler, who was visibly shaken, managed only 159 yards and two interceptions with no touchdowns.

Notre Dame will undoubtedly remember the “good” Kessler, who threw six scoring passes against them last year, as Brian VanGorder attempts to duplicate the defensive success enjoyed by the Huskies. Kessler’s primary target is deep threat JuJu Smith-Schuster, while Steven Mitchell and Darreus Rogers are more possession type receivers. Mitchell is nursing and injury and is doubtful for Saturday. Tight end Taylor McNamara operates mainly under the radar in the passing game. The injury situation increases the likelihood that the versatile and explosive Jackson will see additional snaps on offense. Although this is definitely not good news for the hosts, Helton is concerned about playing his star for upwards of 100 snaps. “It doesn’t make him totally effective,” said Helton, who added that it’s most important for Jackson to be effective on defense.

As one might expect, USC is in great shape at running back with two exceptional players. Senior Tre Madden runs downhill at 225 pounds and is effective as a pass receiver, while freshman Ronald Jones is a gifted runner who combines raw speed and elusiveness. Just for good measure, Justin Davis has also earned a share of the workload and performed well. Late reports indicate that Madden is nursing a sore knee, so expect to see Jones take on an expanded role.

Despite the loss of Tuerk in the middle, the Trojan offensive line is big and talented. Right guard Damien Mama will attempt to lean his 355 frame on Notre Dame’s Sheldon Day, and right tackle Zach Banner is listed at 6’9” and 360 pounds. The Irish front seven would appear to be at a disadvantage against this group, particularly in terms of stopping the run and holding up through four quarters.

SPECIAL TEAMS

As should be obvious by now, Jackson’s presence as the primary return man on special teams should encourage the Irish to boot the ball as far away from him as possible. Tyler Newsome continues to punt the ball well for Notre Dame and kicker Justin Yoon had the best game of his young career last week against Navy. C.J. Sanders can be an effective returner when his blockers make room for him to operate, but unfortunately this is a rare occurrence.

USC’s kicker Alex Wood is generally reliable inside 40 yards, but he is measurably less accurate on longer three point attempts. Punter Kris Albarado is solid and the Trojan coverage teams are statistically quite strong.

SUMMARY

In analyzing USC, the high degree of talent and athleticism is undeniable. Despite these riches, the Irish do match up fairly well across the board except at linebacker, where the Trojans have a decided edge against anyone not named Jaylon Smith. The element that has been very difficult to determine over the past several years in particular is how motivated, focused and disciplined the Trojans will be for three hours on Saturday evening. Inconsistency has been their hallmark in recent seasons, and the events and distractions of the past week make it almost impossible to anticipate how well they will play. USC usually gives a strong effort against Notre Dame, however, although the Irish have plenty of motivation of their own after last year’s debacle. The ultimate winner in this matchup may very well be NBC, who will enjoy a ratings bonanza despite blemishes on the win-loss record of each teams.

On balance, the play of the respective offensive lines remains critical. The team that can best enable its talented running backs to break off large chunks of yardage while protecting its passer should prevail. Kessler can be deadly if he has time to throw, while Kizer is less polished as a passer but better equipped to escape the rush when necessary. Defensively, the pass defense at the back end by both teams has been susceptible to big plays, so the group that does a better job covering the opponent’s explosive playmakers will help their cause immeasurably.

Here are a few questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Will the Irish start fast and gain an advantage in the first half?

Which team will hurt its cause with turnovers and penalties?

Can Notre Dame contain USC’s powerful running game?

Which team’s elite skill players will make game-changing plays?

Can Kizer keep his cool and deliver the ball to an open receiver?

Will Kessler have the luxury of time in the pocket?

Will Helton end up in hot water or soaked in Gatorade?

PREDICTION

Helton’s appointment to Interim Head Coach was enthusiastically received by the Trojan players, who reportedly have had an excellent week of practice. Notre Dame can forget the notion that USC will lay down in this ballgame, and the Irish will be in serious trouble if the Trojans perform to their potential. Conversely, the Irish and Kelly are fighting to retain their identity as an elite program. This game has become critical in the wake of the defeat at Clemson, not only for this season but in the recruiting world as rival programs in Columbus, OH and Ann Arbor, MI are asserting themselves. On balance, this game looks to me like a 7-10 point loss, but USC’s internal issues and the fact that Notre Dame absolutely must win makes me believe the Irish will find a way to do it.

NOTRE DAME 27 USC 24