Last November, the Notre Dame faithful expected the undefeated Fighting Irish to storm the Coliseum and obliterate an erratic 5-6 USC team led by a precocious freshman quarterback. The visitors narrowly averted the same disaster that had befallen other unbeaten or highly-rated Irish teams in the last century. Nearly one year later, another talented but mistake-prone group of Trojans (3-2), improbably led by yet another freshman quarterback, hope to stun ninth-ranked Notre Dame (4-1) while saving their season and quite possibly their own head coach. Saturday’s showdown will be played in South Bend and televised by NBC beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Coach Helton is in his fourth full season at USC. He took over during the 2015 campaign when Steve Sarkisian was fired, and has compiled a 35-19 record. That success rate has not satisfied various well-heeled Trojan boosters, who began to grumble in earnest after an overtime loss in September to a mediocre BYU team. Even though Helton lost starting quarterback J.T. Daniels in the opening game to a season-ending knee injury, he is not getting much slack. A victory on Saturday and a successful run through the rest of the PAC-12 schedule might save him, but the fact that Urban Meyer is available has USC fans pining for a return to the program’s glory days.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has quite a bit of incentive in this matchup. The Irish still harbor playoff aspirations, provided they can succeed in high-profile rivalry games this month as the logjam in the SEC sorts itself out. Coach Brian Kelly’s defense has played well of late, while the offense continues to evolve as key weapons return from injury and quarterback Ian Book works to improve his poise in the pocket and accuracy downfield. On the recruiting front, Notre Dame is hosting a large number of top players this weekend and definitely wants to impress them.

The Irish attack was bolstered when tight end Cole Kmet and wideout Michael Young recovered from broken collarbones and returned to their starting roles. The emergence of backup tight end Tommy Tremble also helped. This week, tailback Jafar Armstrong and slot receiver Lawrence Keys are expected back, which essentially brings the unit up to full strength. On defense, cornerback Shaun Crawford remains out with a dislocated elbow, and his absence will be felt as the team attempts to cover the dangerous Trojan receivers.

USC also has its own injury issues, Besides Daniels, tight end Josh Falo, tailback Vavae Malepeai, guard Andrew Vorhees and cornerback Isaac Taylor-Stuart are not expected to play. The good news is that other players who have missed time with various maladies will likely be on the field this week, although possibly at less than 100%. This group includes quarterback Kedon Slovis, wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown, cornerback Olaijah Griffin, safety Talanoa Hufanga, and defensive end Christian Rector.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

The Trojan defense is very young, but the talent level is undeniable. The front seven in particular boasts a set of players with enormous potential. Rector is the lone senior along the front four, but 300-pound sophomore tackles Jay Tufele and Marlon Tuipulotu are emerging as a disruptive nuisance for opposing linemen.  Freshman end Drake Jackson, a prize recruit, leads the team in sacks and may be the best player in this group.

Senior middle linebacker John Houston, the team’s leading tackler, is flanked by sophomores Hunter Echols and Palaie Gaoteote. This trio has excellent size and range, and represents a departure from the relatively small linebackers USC has fielded in recent years. Gaoteote is already beginning to receive recognition as a future star. In passing situations, Echols typically gives way to nickel back Greg Johnson.

Notre Dame must find a way to run the ball in order to keep the explosive USC offense on the sidelines. Tufele and Tuipulotu will be difficult to move in the middle, but Kelly must exercise patience and keep plugging away on the ground as the Trojans have worn down in the second half of previous games. In fact, they have yielded an average of 175 rushing yards, which is high considering their personnel and list of opponents.

In the passing game, the battle between Irish tackles Robert Hainsey and Liam Eichenberg and Rector/Jackson will be fierce, but USC will be equally determined to collapse the pocket with a strong push up the middle. It’s no secret that Book has been vulnerable to such attacks as he does not instinctively slide away from pressure while maintaining eyes downfield. The Trojans have given up some pass plays in the middle of the field but have proven to be very stingy in the red zone.

USC’s secondary is completely revamped after losing its top five experienced 2018 players through graduation. Helton has finally settled on a handful of freshmen and sophomores as his starters from a crowded depth chart. At safety, Isaiah Pola-Mao and Hufango show great promise and athletic ability, but can be caught out of position when overly aggressive.

Freshman Chris Steele, another highly rated recruit, is expected to start at cornerback opposite Griffin if Stuart-Taylor is not ready to go. Johnson has been the most vulnerable cover man, so Chris Finke and Keys may be able to do some damage from the slot position. Steele is raw as well and should be tested by Chase Claypool and others. In fact, Book will have a lot of options with Kmet in the lineup and Armstrong available to line up behind him or out wide. As always, Book will need time in the pocket to take full advantage of his opportunities.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Slovis has exceeded the expectations of those who feared the season was over in Troy after Daniels went down. His 78% completion percentage ranks second in the nation, but he threw three interceptions at BYU in his only road start. “I don’t think that the moment was too big for him at BYU,” Offensive Coordinator Graham Harrell said. “He threw a pick early and kind of got in his own head. I don’t think it was the atmosphere or the moment or anything like that.”

The Irish need to pressure Slovis into mistakes, but that will require a mix of coverages and rush strategies since he throws most of his passes from a quick three-step drop. His receivers are among the best in the country. Michael Pittman is a matchup nightmare at 6’4” with excellent hands and speed, while Tyler Vaughns, and St. Brown are nearly as dangerous. Note that Vaughns caught 12 passes last year against Notre Dame. The Trojans have not thrown many passes to the tight end this year, and the loss of Falo makes that option even less probable.

Pittman did not lack confidence regarding the Trojans’ chances this week despite a forecast for cold weather that concerned his younger teammates. “I told them to embrace the suck,” he said. “It’s going to be cold. But it’ll be fun when we’re running up the score.”

The Trojan running game has been less productive this season, averaging only 137 yards per game. They do have the ability to make teams pay for overplaying the pass, though. Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are capable tailbacks who can fill in for the hobbled Malepeai if needed. Notre Dame is likely going to go with five defensive backs in most situations.

USC is strong on the left side of its offensive line with tackle Austin Jackson and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker. The right side and center Brett Neilon are just average, and Notre Dame’s pass rush can have some success here. End Khalid Kareem is a player to watch for the Irish. USC may have to deploy backup tight end Erik Krommenhoek just to help block him.

Of course, the larger focus will be on the defensive backs, who will have their hands full all evening. Crawford’s continued absence means that Tariq Bracy will start at cornerback with veteran Troy Pride. The Trojans picked on Bracy last year and will test him again.  The Irish may have to employ freshmen K.J. Wallace or Isaiah Rutherford at corner when the Trojans go to a four-wide alignment, which could be problematic. Reserve safeties Kyle Hamilton and Houston Griffith will also be called upon to assist. It would also benefit Notre Dame’s cause if starting safeties Alohi Gilman and Jalen Elliott have strong games. Both have not yet played to the high level they demonstrated in 2018.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The new punter for the Trojans in 2019 is 6’5” 240-pound Ben Griffiths, a 28-year old native of Australia. Despite his size, Griffiths averages a pedestrian 40 yards per try. Veteran place kicker Chase McGrath has not missed an attempt this season and also has good range. Vaughns is the primary return man on punts and Velus Jones, who has a 100-yard touchdown to this credit, brings back kickoffs.

Notre Dame’s coverage teams have displayed good energy this season, while the return teams have not been special. Finke is left to his own devices to make yards on punt returns, while the coaches prefer to down the ball on kickoffs rather than risk a mistake. Jonathan Doerer remains solid on short field goals and extra points, although someday he will be called upon to make a kick over 40 yards when it matters.

SUMMARY  

The Trojan passing game must be keeping the Irish coaches awake at nights this week, and rightfully so. The Irish came out with soft coverage last year in a show of respect for USC’s speed, but Daniels eviscerated them with a first half passing clinic. This year, Notre Dame has demonstrated a maddening habit of being unprepared for an opponent’s method of attack, but this week they cannot wait until the second half to make adjustments. Defensive Coordinator Clark Lea must vary coverages and bring pressure from unexpected areas to coax Slovis into poor decisions, while protecting his young cornerbacks from undue exposure. That is indeed a tall order.

On offense, Notre Dame must be able to sustain drives and control the clock. Three and out possessions will compound the pressure on the defense to chase the Trojan receivers all over the field and keep them in check. A contest that deteriorates into a shootout does not favor the hosts, who rely more on their defense to seize control of games.

Here are a few questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Will the Irish defensive front be able to dominate the Trojan offensive line?

Which team will commit the fewest turnovers and costly penalties?

Can Notre Dame run the ball and limit the number of USC possessions?

Which quarterback will be most accurate on third down throws?

Can the swift Trojan receivers turn short receptions into big plays?

Which special teams will make plays that alter momentum or field position?

Will the Irish defense be able to prevent another fast start by the Trojans?

PREDICTION

The Trojans will be refreshed after a bye week and highly motivated to turn their season around for themselves as well as their coach. They are a dangerous opponent, especially if matters go well for them in the early going and Slovis finds a comfortable rhythm. It is imperative for Notre Dame to weather the aerial storm and manage no worse than a tie score at intermission.  From that point, Notre Dame’s superior depth should be enough to win the second half and therefore the game. It will not be a walk in the park, however, and an upset is a definite possibility if USC takes care of the ball. The young Trojans are notoriously undisciplined and have rarely played to the level of their overall talent this season, but the Irish should not assume it will happen again on Saturday night.

NOTRE DAME 31  USC 27

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