Notre Dame will try to end a two-game losing streak when the Fighting Irish host the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon on Senior Day. This is the first meeting between these football programs, and both teams are 7-3 on the season with common opponents in Syracuse (wins) and Florida State (losses). The Irish have cooled considerably after a fast start under the weight of offensive turnovers and injuries to key defenders. The Cardinals have suffered from inconsistent performances during the past month as they fought through their own health issues, but are coming off a bye week. The game will be nationally televised by NBC beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

The Cardinals are coached by Bobby Petrino, who is ten games into his second tour of duty there. He coached at Louisville from 2003-2006 with two top-ten finishes before embarking on a disastrous NFL experiment in Atlanta. Petrino followed that aborted 2007 season with a well-publicized crash and burn at Arkansas after leading the Razorbacks to a top five finish in 2011, and a year of relative exile in 2013 at the helm of Western Kentucky. His reputation as a maverick dates back to the days when he was growing up in Montana and watching Notre Dame highlights and games. His grandparents rooted for the Irish, so Petrino said he rooted against them, just to be different.

Unfortunately for Brian Kelly’s squad, defensive linemen Sheldon Day and Daniel Cage are unable to play after suffering knee injuries against Northwestern. Their status for the rest of the season is not yet clear. Safety Max Redfield is back in the starting lineup after riding the pine last week, and cornerback Cody Riggs may once again have only a part time role due to a foot issue. There is also a number of walking wounded on the Notre Dame sideline. Quarterback Everett Golson, wide receiver Corey Robinson, defensive lineman Jarron Jones and linebacker Jaylon Smith are not at full strength.

For Louisville, star linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin (hamstring) has made enough of a recovery that he might play. Mauldin is among the team leaders in sacks despite missing two games. Pio Vatuvei (elbow) hasn’t played in a month, but he may also be back. Wide receiver James Quick, who was suspended for the team’s previous game for an unspecified violation of team rules, will most likely find forgiveness this week and rejoin the lineup. The bad news for the Cardinals is quarterback Will Gardner (knee) is out for the remainder of the season. Petrino is not as concerned as one might expect as freshman Reggie Bonnafon started three games earlier this season, and performed well. Several other players have been playing through various aches and pains, including cornerback Terell Floyd and linebackers Keith Kelsey and James Burgess.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. LOUISVILLE’S DEFENSE

The Irish misfortunes of late are closely connected to the number of turnovers they have committed. Last week, a fumble inside the Northwestern one yard line killed what should have been a game clinching drive, and everyone remembers the charitable contributions (28 points) that Golson handed to Arizona State.

When Notre Dame elects to put the ball in the air against Louisville, the risk of a bad result may be even greater. Safety Gerod Holliman has 13 interceptions, just one shy of the NCAA record of 14 set in 1968 by Al Worley of Washington. “If he (Golson) stares down anybody in (Holliman’s) ZIP code, he’s going to take the ball away,” Kelly said earlier this week. “He’s got great ball skills. His scheme allows him some freedom. He’s always in position to be that extra player roving.”

The rest of the Cardinals defense is statistically very impressive, although they did collapse at home against Florida State in the second half of a 42-31 loss. On the season, they have surrendered only 87 rushing yards per game (2.8 per attempt) and fewer than 200 passing yards. Louisville has also recorded 33 sacks, compared to 18 by Notre Dame. As you might expect, they lead the country in overall interceptions with 22. The best cornerback for the Cardinals is Charles Gaines, while his 5’9” running mate Andrew Johnson may be a target on Saturday if Notre Dame can isolate him in coverage.

Louisville’s active front seven is deployed in a 3-4 alignment and led by end Sheldon Rankin and linebackers James Burgess and Keith Kelsey. The talented Mauldin is the designated pass rusher who moves up to the line on third down from his outside linebacker position. The entire unit works well together as evidenced by their opponents’ low 29% conversion rate on third down. The key for Notre Dame is to avoid third and long situations as the pass rush is above average and Holliman stands ready to pounce on any imperfect throws by Golson.

LOUISVILLE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Bonnafon has excellent speed and runs the read option effectively. What will make him a future star is his ability to throw the short and intermediate passes accurately, so he has a well-rounded skill set. The return of Quick and DaVonte Parker’s recent recovery from injury bolsters the receiving corps and provides experienced help for the freshman signal caller. The 6’3” Parker is a dangerous threat and will create a mismatch if the Irish attempt to use man coverage to check him. Not to be overlooked are slot receiver Eli Rogers and tight end Gerald Christian, who are very integral parts of the Louisville passing game. The fact that these other targets have been forced to fill the void while Parker missed most of the first eight games will serve the Cardinals well now that he is back.

A trio of running backs has shared the ground-based workload this season. Dominique Brown is the starter while Michael Dyer and Brandon Radcliff will see action. All are tough, physical runners but are rarely targeted in the passing game. The performance of the offensive line will determine how successful Louisville will be on Saturday. The unit was shaky earlier in the season but the starting lineup has stabilized and begun to show improvement. The best players in this group are massive tackle Jamon Brown and veteran guard John Miller.

The battered Irish defensive line may be in for a long day if they cannot pressure Bonnafon into freshman mistakes. His running ability and Petrino’s balanced attack pose a difficult challenge, especially if Bonnafon is allowed to settle into a rhythm and gain confidence.

Petrino will take steps to protect his young quarterback as the Cardinals will be vulnerable should Bonnafon go down during this game. With Gardner already on the shelf, there is no one else available with a hint of experience. Bonnafon will undoubtedly be under orders to run sparingly and avoid big hits by sliding or getting out of bounds. When he drops back to pass, Bonnafon is most likely to make short throws to build confidence, so the Irish must not play too soft in coverage from the outset.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame has regressed across the board in all phases of special teams as the season continues. Kicker Kyle Brindza has been wildly inconsistent, and his holders have contributed to the problem. Brindza’s punting is still solid, but too much punting means the team is probably losing. Amir Carlisle has done a credible job on kick returns when he gets a few blocks, but that doesn’t happen very often. The punt return game has disintegrated into oblivion. Fortunately, the Irish coverage teams have done a credible job and no opponent has burned them for long returns that have significantly altered field position.

Meanwhile, Louisville has an excellent place kicker in John Wallace, who is 13 for 16 on field goals and has range beyond 50 yards. Wallace has come through in pressure situations with several game-winning kicks, and would give his team an advantage in a close fourth quarter or overtime situation. Punter Ryan Johnson is reliable although the height and distance on his kicks are not exceptional. Rogers and Quick handle the punt return chores and usually deliver some meaningful yardage. Gaines is the primary kick returner with Quick alongside. Again, their results are relatively average.

SUMMARY

Louisville is calling its injured players to duty and obviously considers this game to be important to its football program. While they must rely on Bonnafon to lead them, he has seen enough action for his teammates to be confident in his ability. Notre Dame players and coaches have taken a few highly publicized hits lately following mistakes both on the field and in sideline strategy, and the growing injury list makes one wonder whether they can find 11 able-bodied warriors to send into battle. Kelly has had his back against the wall before and won games when it appeared the odds were stacked against him, so it would be foolish to write off this team.

It won’t be easy for the Irish, however, especially if the defensive line cannot win its share of battles with the improved Louisville front line. They must stop the run and force Bonnafon to become a pocket passer. On offense, Notre Dame knows it must score plenty of points to win, but before filling the air with passes they must weigh the need to score against the risk of turning the ball over to the opportunistic Cardinals. Another high scoring affair appears likely, and the team that makes the fewest mistakes will emerge with a victory.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Which quarterback will be most efficient, the freshman Bonnafon or the senior Golson?

How will the resurgent Cardinals offensive line fare against the patchwork Irish defensive front?

Will Parker be able to find holes in the Irish secondary?

Can Brindza get back on track for Senior Day?

Will Holliman put his name in the record books at the expense of Golson?

Can Notre Dame run the ball against the stingy Louisville front seven?

PREDICTION

Once again, the Irish will face a motivated opponent making its first appearance in Notre Dame Stadium. Recently, these meeting have resulted in a memorable day for the likes of South Florida, Tulsa and UConn, and Louisville is a far better team than anyone in this group. The Senior Day atmosphere should give a boost to the hosts, but the 2014 Irish remain a young team that may not have enough left in the tank to beat Petrino’s Cardinals.

LOUISVILLE 38 NOTRE DAME 28