In all that you ignore the expected value of the death
by airborneirish (2024-01-29 23:40:17)

In reply to: You are not using the SSA table correctly at all  posted by OrangeJubilee

Cannot Reply Return to Political

You still come up with a 1/3 chance that he kicks the bucket while in office. But you don't want to say that's likely? Fine.

What is the cost of his death? What is the expected value of handling that? How do voters consider the "cost" of a Harris presidency? How does that influence their decision whether to vote and how?

Think harder. Some of you blow my mind with the knots you're willing to twist yourself into to justify sub optimal decision making.

You want to quibble on whether it's likely ... What is the minimal acceptable likelihood a president kicks the bucket in office?

Said another way, how does the random chacne that biden kicks the bucket as president? How does that compare to a 55 year old male with a Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) diagnosis? How would you regard the decision making of a party that trotted such a person out as the candidate for POTUS?

But yes let's measure dicks over the hasty calculations done on the PBR instead.





Stop walking away from your words
by OrangeJubilee  (2024-01-30 08:53:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

and changing to some side question without acknowledging the previous posts you made. This isn't a CNN town hall debate.

MarineDomer: "That is just wrong"
AirborneIrish Response:
"Instead Biden has around a coin flips chance of living 4.5 more years from today."
"Thus it is very likely he dies while in office." Followed by a comment that MarineDomer is making an error.

My post clearly shows my work (SSA tables are linked in another post if you want to cross-check, it won't let me re-link them) and that both of your statements are demonstrably false.

It is not a coin flip. It is certainly not (your words) "very likely". If it was, then how would you describe the 70% chance he does not die in office? Very Strenuously Likely? It is just prima facie wrong, admit it and move on. And even worse, these numbers are for average people at 80, I am sure for health, genetics, and medical care his odds are lower.

If you ran the numbers for a 76 year old making it to 80.5, there is a 20% chance of death. So it isn't like it went from zero to 30% or something.

Think harder? I have thought pretty hard using actual data, and will only address a bunch of new questions moving the goalposts after you agree it is neither a coin flip nor likely he dies in office.


Dude, respectfully, you’re barking at the moon here…..
by Marine Domer  (2024-01-30 08:35:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

No one is arguing that Biden will be just fine, or that his dying in office wouldn’t be a bad thing. I made the simple, and very accurate, point that it is not “likely” that either Trump or Biden will die before 2029 statistically. You then came at me with “you look silly to us math guys.”. Who’s engaged in silly dick-measuring here?

Franky, I don’t know what you mean by a “math guy” anyway.

No rational person refers to a 1/3 chance as likely, much less “very likely.”. Your own little number percentage chart showed that, and yet you continue to want to be the one to pick a fight.
whatever
by airborneirish  (2024-01-30 12:27:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

You refuse to acknowledge there are three perspectives: Legal, academic, and practical. That's all I'm saying. You keep sticking to the legal perspective but we aren't at trial and I'm saying if I have to pick which to go with I pick the practical one: one that sets thresholds for probabilities that are contextual. This admittedly bleeds the concepts of expected value back into "likelihoods or aka pure probabilities" but certainly for me, a guy having a 1/3 chance of dying in the next 4.5 years is a likely outcome... Look at the probability of HRC victory of Trump. It's a very likely outcome given the roulette board.

You want to bet the farm on a 1/3 chance of going BK? I do not.
OK, I don't want to argue any further on this....
by Marine Domer  (2024-01-30 16:18:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

We are talking past each other. My argument was not a legal one, but a mathematical one. You then basically called me a dummy and said I don't understand the math, while bringing in issues that are semantic, and not anyone's idea of math.

If I was addressing the question "Should we elect either Donald Trump or Joe Biden?" I've already answered that in the negative. IF I was addressing the question, "Is there a not insignificant chance Biden could die in office, or become disabled before 2029 to the point he was incapable of serving?" I've already answered that in the affirmative. If the question was "wouldn't that be a bad thing if it happened?" I answered that as well in the affirmative.

As to the definition of likely, I guess you have your definition, and it differs from any I've ever heard. But we won't ever agree on that.