I was with most of your post until the last paragraph
by DBCooper (2024-02-06 16:03:44)

In reply to: Did you really expect something more substantial?  posted by gregmorrissey

Cannot Reply Return to Political

I think it matters alot if Russia takes over Ukraine. Do you think Putin stops there? If you do then, yeah it probably doesn’t matter a lot to the common US citizen except for theoretical issues with us not helping out. But, if you don’t think Putin stops there, as I don’t, the next steps are the really scary ones. Does he go after Moldova next or does he feel the Baltic states, or Finland or Poland, deserve a lesson?

If China takes over Taiwan there is a very real path it could lead to a worldwide Great Depression , forget about the possible war that develops if we decide to defend Taiwan. But either way I think it does matter to the US citizen.

Again with Gaza it depends on the next steps. If Israel decimated Gaza does Iran finally get off the toilet and get personally involved. Do other Arab nations? Will it touch our shores by terrorists fighting for Islam? For better or worse we are always connected to Israel in the eyes of most of the Arab world. If Israel goes too far, and I don’t know what that line is, but if they do we will probably face the consequences of it as well.

I think the world is much more connected than you suggest and just because it hasn’t appeared like that for a few decades doesn’t mean it’s not ready to ignite in an instant. Depends on the catalyst I imagine.

Partially/mostly an antagonistic point to spur discussion
by gregmorrissey  (2024-02-06 17:17:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I had various versions of that paragraph including one discussing the complex web of interests, and just like dealing with an actual spider web, the deft touch it requires to keep the whole thing intact. I ultimately decided to go with what I did because it likely represents a lot Americans' feelings, and I thought it was enough of a stance (hopefully without coming across a complete idiot) to provide plenty of room for good discussion in the counterpoint.


With regards to Putin/Russia and Ukraine, I'm supportive of our current approach. I'm not in favor of our escalation with American troops. Nor am I in favor of stopping the aid to Ukraine. To EC's point, I don't think there's much more for Putin to do beyond Ukraine. If he pushes into a NATO country then our response should be immediate and unforgiving.

For China/Taiwan and Israel/Gaza, I'm more on the side of "can American intervention attempts really change anything?". So, it's less about does the whole thing actually matter and more does our response actually matter. If China decides to invade Taiwan then there's nothing we can do about it. We're an ocean away, and our citizenry just doesn't care. Sure, they'll be affected, maybe terribly affected, but they certainly won't think it could have been stopped.



Where could Putin go next?
by EricCartman  (2024-02-06 16:13:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Outside of Moldova, he doesn't have very many options outside of NATO countries. (This map is old, and both Finland and Sweden are now in NATO.)

I guess that he could go south into Georgia, Armenia, or Azerbaijan. I'm not sure what he will gain by doing this. Taking back Ukraine makes sense from a historical perspective, the rest don't seem to have the same sentimental value as Ukraine does.

I think he'd go after a NATO country
by AquinasDomer  (2024-02-06 17:56:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Likely the Baltics. He just has to get it in his head that we and europe would flinch.

The big wars have generally started with miscalculation by one or more parties. I'm sure a geriatric Putin has a major miscalculation left in him.