Pelt me with empties in 6 months if I am wrong...
by John@Indy (2024-04-17 08:52:32)

In reply to: The Maryland Senate race shows Hogan with solid  posted by Raoul

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...but I believe this race will play out much like the Evan Bayh-Todd Young race in Indiana in 2016. Bayh, a popular former governor and senator in a red state, had an early double-digit polling lead over Todd Young, a congressman unknown outside of his district. While Bayh didn't trail in a single public poll until October, he lost by 10.

I know little about either of the two Democratic contenders. Both seem to have a wide range of establishment endorsements without an obvious ideological divide between them. Senate races turn on national issues in a way that gubernatorial races do not. Unless whoever gets the D nomination is terrible, Hogan will have a very tough time maintaining the lead. It is true that he is sufficiently popular that the Democrats will have to take the race seriously and spend money on it.


You completely underestimate Hogan’s appeal In Maryland
by MDDomer  (2024-04-18 14:58:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

and the poor choices on the Democratic side. Are you aware of the controversy surrounding David Trone and his use of a racist erm at a hearing? Hogan will win here, I have no doubt

Okay.
by John@Indy  (2024-04-18 16:10:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

You could be right. But you sound exactly like me when Bayh jumped into the race in 2016. "You don't understand, Bayh is sui generis in Indiana, he hasn't gotten below 60 percent of the vote in an election since 1988!"

Does Hogan know his own address? That would help. *
by Jeash  (2024-04-18 07:23:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Manchin is probably the better analog
by Raoul  (2024-04-18 10:16:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

But his win (and Tester's) last came in a non-Presidential year. I assume it will be tougher to go against a presidential tide which is probably the reason Manchin is not running again (and which also helps Scott and Cruz while hurting Hogan and Tester). That said, this will be a very unique presidential race as it stands.

The GOP has the best possible set up right now in the Senate. The House races could easily go the other way since numerous House pick-ups in 2022 in NY and CA benefited from off-year election.



It may also depend on voter turnout for the presidential
by G.K.Chesterton  (2024-04-17 11:23:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

election. If apathetic Dem voters stay home because they aren't enthused about Biden, it will hurt Hogan's opponent. Same thing on the other side of the aisle.
Agreed. It's still about name recognition and the primary
by sprack  (2024-04-17 10:54:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

hasn't happened yet. When I say "name recognition", it's more than simply knowing the names of the candidates. It's knowing their positions and how they carry themselves, etc. Until there's a nominee, people who didn't vote in that party's primary aren't really paying much attention.

I say that with having a lot of admiration for Hogan, that he represents the best of what's left of the GOP, and that he would be a top-notch senator.

But the reality is that it's very hard for even a popular ex-governor to get elected to the Senate as a Republican in a state like Maryland in a year like this because a lot of left-leaning moderates who voted for him for governor and would again have their eyes on who will control the Senate.

I don't know how it will play out and Hogan could well win and even win big, but polls for offices like this that are this early are notoriously unpredictive.
I think Hogan will win
by acrossdmiddle  (2024-04-17 09:15:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

He’s very popular and it’s not like Trone (or Alsobrooks) has been saving dry powder. Trone has had ads running for the better part of a year. You’d think he was running for President. So it’s not a name recognition issue at this point, and Hogan jumped to the top of the race the moment he entered.