In reply to: I called Trump being DOA last year. posted by EricCartman
right now are NH and maybe - maybe - SC. No one else is really thinking about who they are voting for. If Haley wins NH there will be a dramatic shift as the aura of invincibility is taken from Trump.
Relatedly, I don't know how much voters outside of NH have paid attention to him recently. He's become increasingly unstable and I have no doubt that instability will continue to increase and will do so exponentially if he loses NH.
Edit: I'm not counting Iowa because (a) there are no votes, it's a caucus and (b) it has been consigned to irrelevance because of its own bungling and an increasing awareness that it measures nothing relevant.
Past winners include:
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
Ted Cruz
voter's views on Trump are baked in pretty well. I dont know that many of his voters are with him because they view him as a winner so I dont think that he will lose much support if he is not seen as the inevitable candidate. I do think where it presents an opportunity for Haley is to get the DeSantis people who view Trump as their second choice. Hard to say if they were picking Trumpa s their second choice because they prefer him or because they assumed he would be the nominee if it isnt DeSantis.
This post from the Cook report is interesting. The electorate in Iowa and SC look very similar but NH not so much in that they are more Republican, Conservative and Evangelical. This is what they have to say on her Christie bump. Full post linked below.
"Even if Christie were to embrace Haley, it wouldn’t solve her bigger challenge, which as I noted earlier is her inability to appeal to a more “traditional” Republican primary audience like the one she’ll see in South Carolina. The CNN/UNH poll, for example, finds Haley winning almost 50% of those New Hampshire voters who define themselves as independent or Democratic, but just 27% among Republicans. Among moderates, who are a much smaller share of the South Carolina and Iowa electorate, Haley is getting 55%. But among conservatives, who make up a larger share of the South Carolina electorate than the New Hampshire electorate, Haley gets just 20%, compared to Trump’s 60%. "
The other item that will be interesting to see is what she does if Trump does come to debate her. She has not gone after him in any real way up to this point but if it is one v one you sort of need to do that. How does she continue to praise his accomplishments but say he should not have a second term? How does she say he cant beat Biden without explicitly saying the 2020 election was not stolen?
I am in the middle of Liz Cheney's book and basically the problem Haley will confront is the very one the party has been kicking down the road sinc 2015 do you confront Trump for what he is or just try and ignore him and believe he will go away. While they keep losing general elections, the Trumop wing of the party has done pretty well in primaries even since 2020 so I am skeptical this time will be different.
however have a few reasons to think Haley has a shot. First, I totally get what you are saying about views about Trump being baked in, but one of those views is Trump is inevitable, and people in later primary states almost always poll strongly in favor of the frontrunner until that image is shattered. Look at 2008 - Obama was way behind Clinton nationally, Clinton was as well known a candidate as there could be, and fwiw I personally had all sorts of people telling me it was a lost cause. Then he won Iowa - which mattered back then - and the rest is history.
Second, assuming Haley is in it to win it, I have to think she's going to open fire on Trump once it is a one-on-one race.
Third, I think there have to be enough Rs who want to beat Biden. They have to know Trump is the weaker candidate and it's not a close call.
Fourth, I am convinced Trump is going to do something bonkers that will actually hurt his support if he loses NH. He has truly become a raving lunatic.
she will go hard after him. The entire reason no one has gone hard after him is because the party loves him. Christie and Hutchinson went after him and neither of them made it to Iowa. She still needs all his suporters to compete in the general.
Obviously with him off the ballot turnout will likely drop but keep in mind there were at least 11 million people who did not vote in 2016 that watched him for four years and said I need four more years of that. The actual number is likely higher when you account for Trump - Biden or Clinton-Trump voters but at a minimum it was 11 million more votes in 2020.
And it may be the influence of the Tim Alberta book being fresh in my mind but I dont know that she gets the evangelical crowd excited in the same manner or if they walk from another RINO. That book opened jy eyes to another world out there that is crazy and committed.
She is becoming more popular amongst Republican women, and if he goes after her like the obnoxious cad, misogynist ogre he always turns into, that may cost him some support. She is also far more well-versed on the issues than he is. I'd love to see her debate him if his testicles ever dropped.
Didn't cost him much in the general. There's no cult of personality swelling behind Haley.
I think this thread is a bunch of old school Republicans wishing that this were the pre Trump party. The base is more populist, more blue collar, and more isolationist than it was even in 2016. As much as anything Haley's issue is that her base is a Minority in the party. That minority is just over represented in the social circles board members talk to.
In simplest terms, the angry white uneducated guys (and some women) aren't going to leave Trump for an Indian woman. If we pretend those folks aren't the majority of today's republican party, then the conservative intellectuals can debate how the rest of the party votes.
Going after her won't hurt him in the slightest ... have we forgotten his "locker room talk" that didn't move the needle?
If trump is eligible and in presentable health, he will be the republican nominee regardless of if it is 1-on-1 or not.
Another relatively close election and we're in decent health... I do wonder if he'd get nominated in 2028.
He'd go down in history a slightly more successful William Jennings Bryant
Is that every time Bryant ran he got 1 to 2% less of the vote.
practicing Christian (of the Catholic variety, so the many of the "Christian" nationalists would not think I am a Christian, but still...), one of the most disgraceful and, in my view, damaging things to Christianity as a whole in America has been the explicitly anti-Christian views and stances taken by these "Christian" nationalists.
There aren't all that many things I would say Jesus was 100% clear about. But he was absolutely, 100% clear when he addressed lying and how to treat your enemy and sinners. Yet these so-called Christians have embraced lying as the means to their end, and their end has largely become punishing both their enemies and those they view as sinners.
number of people who might change your view of evangelicals and politics.
the page not because I am a liberal and he takes the evangelical right to task. I think it was illiuminating to read about the schism and to see not just the mega churches but also the smaller churches we have neverr heard of that are likely the most radicalized. It did also cause me to pause and think about my poltics, my faith and the intersection of the two.
Well wrritten book by a person whose background was uniquely suited to writing it in a way that examine the issues in a way that was both respectful and honest.
His supporters are the loudest, and most passionate. I also think that the silent majority of Never Trumpers and moderates will show up to vote against him.
All of this reminds me of pre-game speculation that occurs routinely in sports. USC will dominate Texas. Michigan is scared of Alabama. etc.
Once the votes are counted, I'm am expecting 2016 level of shock and confusion when Trump comes up short.
If she can pull off New Hampshire and parlay that into a South Carolina win, making Trump look beatable can change the equation.
That's obviously very optimistic.
One won both states, and that was Ford.
If she flops in the early primaries the race will be over quickly. But if she gets a couple of early victories it's a whole new ballgame. Hell, she might even be able to force him into showing up for a debate.
Assume she finishes second in Iowa and wins NH which seems likely SC is up next. Trump is at 52% there. The question is where to the DeSantis supporrters go. Polling to date shows a higher % with Trump as their second choice. If the Haley winning NH does not change that it is difficult to see any momentum with Michigan (64%) Georgia (55) and Mississippi (48-61) the next ones with polling.
Idaho and North Dakota are in the middle of those but I could not find any data for those states.
With Christie out, the chances for a win should be there. If she gets crushed, I think it's game over. If it's close, closer than the expected blowouts in other states, that could be helpful but maybe not enough.
Winning the first primary (as opposed to a caucus) could be a game-changer.