10th Anniversary NDNation Probability Poll Results

Posted on by SEE

For the 10th year (happy anniversary)  the NDNation Probability Poll is in and the success of 2015 has created a tiny bit more optimism on average for 2016 and a tiny bit more pessimism at the upper and lower bounds for Brian Kelly’s seventh season. See 2015 results here.

The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just ” is ND better than X”? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:

2016 Findings

  • On average, fans expect approximately 8.9 wins this year (Up from 8.3).
  • At the most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans are slightly less optimistic and expect 10.3 wins (Down from 10.4.)
  • The pessimists are slightly more pessimistic; the pessimistic boundary expects 7.5 wins this season (Down from 7.6.)
  • Yet NDN doesn’t think ND is an underdog to anyone on the schedule in 2016.

There seem to be three levels of opponents

  • The coin tosses:  Stanford and USC
  • The slight favorites:  Michigan State
  • The solid favorites:  Texas and Miami
  • The heavy favorites: Nevada, Duke, Syracuse, Navy, NC State, Army and (surprisingly) Va. Tech.

Here are the rolled up results with the 5% cutoff:

Opponent 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
S04 @ Texas 7:30pm ABC 8.30% 28.60% 34.80% 17.70%
S10 NEVADA 3:30pm NBC 14.10% 47.80% 33.10%
S17 MICHIGAN STATE 7:30pm NBC 6.80% 26.20% 37.10% 18.70% 5.20%
S24 DUKE 3:30pm NBC 18.20% 30.40% 30.60% 15.60%
O01 @ Syracuse (Meadowlands) TBD 11.40% 29.20% 35.40% 19.70%
O08 @ North Carolina State TBD 5.40% 16.30% 28.30% 27.50% 13.90% 7.10%
O29 MIAMI 3:30pm NBC 6.60% 26.10% 36.50% 19.50% 6.30%
N05 @ Navy 11:30am 17.00% 28.40% 32.50% 16.70%
N12 ARMY (Alamodome) 3:30pm NBC 5.60% 31.40% 60.50%
N19 VIRGINIA TECH 3:30pm NBC 16.80% 34.00% 27.30% 11.60% 5.00%
O15 STANFORD 7:30pm NBC 11.70% 41.90% 24.90% 8.80%
N26 @ Southern Cal TBD 8.20% 16.60% 35.70% 18.80% 9.80%

And here’s the roll-up of the pessimistic, optimistic and upper bounds:

Opponent Lower Avg Upper
S04 @ Texas 7:30pm ABC 60.0% 66.9% 80.0%
S10 NEVADA 3:30pm NBC 80.0% 92.0% 100.0%
S17 MICHIGAN STATE 7:30pm NBC 50.0% 58.9% 70.0%
S24 DUKE 3:30pm NBC 70.0% 84.6% 100.0%
O01 @ Syracuse (Meadowlands) TBD 70.0% 86.6% 100.0%
O08 @ North Carolina State TBD 60.0% 75.0% 90.0%
O15 STANFORD 7:30pm NBC 40.0% 53.5% 60.0%
O29 MIAMI 3:30pm NBC 60.0% 69.2% 80.0%
N05 @ Navy 11:30am CBS(Jacksonville) 70.0% 85.2% 100.0%
N12 ARMY (Alamodome) 3:30pm NBC 90.0% 95.6% 100.0%
N19 VIRGINIA TECH 3:30pm NBC 60.00% 75.1% 90.0%
N26 @ Southern Cal TBD 40.00% 50.6% 60.0%
Totals 7.5 8.9 10.3

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11 thoughts on “10th Anniversary NDNation Probability Poll Results”

  2. Andrew says:

    If we develop a legitimate second receiving threat besides Torii, and some sort of pass rush (from…anyone) then our wildest dreams will come true. If we don’t, then they won’t.

  3. Huh says:

    I looked back at the old predictions vs results. I found every year starting with 2009 except 2014. The biggest misses were at the extremes. ND has won with low probability, Oklahoma and USC ’12, and lost a number of times unexpectedly (Navy ’09 and UConn ’09 the biggest). The first column is the average of NDNation’s estimate of win probability, rounded to nearest X5%.

    NDNation……wins…….losses……win %
    …35%………….2…………..0……….100%
    …45%………….2…………..2……….50%
    …55%………….5…………..6……….45%
    …65%………..10…………..5……….67%
    …75%………..12…………..3……….80%
    …85%………..11…………..3……….79%
    …95%………….9…………..2……….82%

      • Huh says:

        Thanks, it’s just a rough look. You could maybe do more with the complete set, but even with 10 years, the season is so short we still don’t have much data. Not surprisingly, the collective is decent at this with the exception that 2012 was better than thought and 2009 was worse. 2008 probably would throw in some more “bad surprises” as well.

  4. CD1 says:

    I don’t understand the poll respondents who are viewing USA as a tougher opponent than Michigan state this year. Obviously, home vs. Road game make some difference, but I am much more concerned about the Spartans…especially after seeing that ND is trying to have back-to-back 10 win seasons for the first time in 23 years, and MSN has been doing it regularly under Dantonio….

      • Jamie says:

        Because it’s a road game, USC’s new quarterback will not be a new quarterback by that point, and USC is ranked much higher in just about all predictive metrics I’ve seen. USC should be a better team than Michigan State this year, even if their records are similar; USC just has an insane schedule.

        • Jake from Ohio (not State Farm) says:

          I think USC will get rolled by BAMA and then we’ll see how those metrics look. They have front line talent, but there is no depth and physical teams (like I think ND will be) will wear them out. True about the QB though, they’ll probably be a much better team when they face the Irish than they will be this weekend.

  5. MannyBoy says:

    I believe the key to winning this game is for Coach Kelly to save all of his first half timeouts just in case Texas attempts a last second field goal.

    Oh wait … that’s the key to driving Texas internet fans heads to explode.

  6. PC says:

    The fans tend to forgot how college football works and that these are still 18-22 year old kids. Some road games are just tricky and the variables are always when you catch a team(momentum or letdown)and their health at the time which is why this type of polling can be quite inaccurate. Mich St appears difficult and you would think we would struggle but they will have played one game against a bad team and we will already have had a good test in Texas. Even as it relates to Vegas odds, if ND handles Texas they will probably be a 5-7 pt favorite over Mich St. Depending on how NC St does this year ND could be the same 5-7pt favorite meanwhile perception is NC ST is weak and Mich ST is some powerhouse.