Bloodied and reeling from last week’s inexcusable disaster against mighty Northern Illinois, Notre Dame (1-1) will slink out of South Bend on a two-hour bus ride to West Lafayette, IN. A once-familiar foe in the Purdue Boilermakers (1-0) await their arrival.  The teams will square off for just the second time since 2014 after battling for 68 consecutive years dating back to 1946.  The Boilers hope to end their eight-game losing streak in this rivalry. The Fighting Irish lead the all-time series 59-26-2. The game will be nationally televised on CBS beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

It is a time-honored tradition for college students to embark on a road trip when things get a bit uncomfortable on campus. This year’s Irish are no different. The home crowd resoundingly booed them off the field last week, although the coaches deserved most of the blame. Purdue’s Ross-Ade Stadium will not exactly be a welcoming destination but the Boilermakers have serious question marks of their own in the trenches, at wide receiver, and at linebacker.

Coach Ryan Walters is in his second season at the school and is looking to improve on a 4-8 record in 2023. He was hired at age 36 after spending two seasons as Defensive Coordinator at Illinois. In Champaign, he was the architect of the nation’s top scoring defense (12.3 ppg) in 2022. Walters has spent much of his time rebuilding a roster that suffered significant attrition after former coach Jeff Brohm left for Louisville. He has a quality quarterback in Hudson Card, who was previously at Texas before joining the Boilermakers last season.

Purdue faces a difficult schedule this season and most fans had expected them to lose this game. Reporters asked Walters if Notre Dame no longer appears invincible in light of last week’s depantsing. “We’re going to err on the side of thinking they are going to be an angry football team”, he said. “Any time you are Top 5 in the country and lose the home opener, that’s going to leave a bad taste in your mouth. I know Coach Freeman will have those guys fired up and ready to play.”

The Boilermakers won their opener handily against Indiana State on August 31 but did not play last week. They dominated the stat sheet but had 11 penalties in the 49-0 mismatch. Card, who completed 59% of his passes last season, was 24 of 25 for 273 yards and four touchdowns. This was the best single game performance for a quarterback in Purdue history. There are many new faces in other key spots this season, though. Therefore, it is difficult to gauge Purdue’s relative strength based on this one lopsided game.

Notre Dame may have an issue at quarterback but Coach Marcus Freeman denied it on Monday. He named Riley Leonard to start on Saturday despite an injured left shoulder that contributed to a wretched performance last week. I will take this with a grain of salt until Leonard actually takes the field. Can Leonard be effective if he cannot risk running the ball and his passing ability is impacted by a painful injury?

Slot receiver Jordan Faison returns to action for the Irish while defensive lineman Gabe Rubio remains out. Regarding Purdue, their reported injuries are defensive back Nyland Green and wideout CJ Smith. Both are transfers from Georgia who will sit this one out.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. PURDUE’S DEFENSE

Purdue has a plus-sized front four led by Jeffrey M’Ba and rush end Will Heldt. Linebackers Kydran Jenkins and Shitta Sillah also add proven third down sack potential. Walters is eager to send pressure and he has the personnel to do it early and often. A strong secondary enables him to gamble with various blitzes. If the Boilers are able to thwart the Irish receivers with man coverage, it could be a long afternoon for whoever is at quarterback.

The back end, led by outstanding safety Dylan Thieneman, is the strength of this defense. He led the team in tackles last season as a true freshman. Thieneman reminds me of former Irish safety Harrison Smith. Watching him compete against Faison this week should be fun.

Faison’s return gives Notre Dame a viable target to complement Beaux Collins, Jaden Greathouse and tight end Mitchell Evans. Jayden Thomas seemed to disappear last week while KK Smith, Kris Mitchell, and Jayden Harrison failed to impress. This group must get themselves open this week and the throws must be on target. Steve Angeli would be my choice to start due to his accuracy, better footwork, and on-time release. Leonard is a better runner when healthy but that may be irrelevant this week.

Offensive Coordinator Mike Denbrock must tailor his game plan to the strength of his personnel. This means a ground-based attack designed to move the chains and maximize time of possession. In other words, the opposite of what we saw against NIU. The Irish had the ball for only 25 minutes last week, which wore down the defense. They ran only half as many plays as the Huskies in the decisive second half.

Denbrock’s greatest failures occurred on a pair of second down and one plays where he called for a pass. In the first half, one such attempt resulted in Leonard’s injury. In the second half, his interception cost them the game. Freeman must also pay attention and impart the situational awareness that was missing last week.

PURDUE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Based on the Boiler’s opening game statistics, Card had little trouble adapting to a new wide receiver corps. Tight end Max Klare is the only one of the top pass catchers from 2023 that is on the team. He led Purdue with five catches against ISU. Jahmal Edrine and Jaron Tibbs are the best of the young wideouts. Both are 6’3”. Edrine missed last season due to injury after transferring in from Florida Atlantic, where he caught 39 passes in 2022.

Last year’s leading rusher Devin Mockobee returns to anchor the running game. The former walk-on ran for 811 yards while battling through fumble issues that he hopes are now behind him. Reggie Love and Elijah Jackson are capable backups with different skill sets. Love is a bruiser while Jackson is a home run threat.

This group runs behind an offensive line that returns three starters. In addition, left tackle Corey Stewart was imported from Ball State while right guard DJ Wingfield transferred in from New Mexico. Against ISU they paved the way for 583 yards of total offense, including 248 on the ground. They also allowed a pair of sacks.

Purdue will attempt to replicate the NIU plan to run the ball right at Notre Dame. Card and his receivers are better players than their NIU counterparts, so they will not be one dimensional. The Irish line will have to play with more energy to offset Purdue’s size. The linebackers must not surrender five yards after contact as they repeatedly did last week. On third down, Notre Dame must apply pressure or Card will have time to deal the Irish a losing hand.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Purdue punter Keelan Crimmins averaged 47 yards per boot against Indiana State. Freshman kicker Spencer Porath appears to have beaten out senior Ben Freehill for the job. He hit all seven of his conversion attempts. Thieneman returns punts for the Boilers and should be considered very dangerous. The speedy Jackson handles the kickoff returns.

Notre Dame’s special teams fell apart last week. Mitch Jeter had his only two attempts blocked quite easily by rushers up the middle. Poor blocking was to blame rather than Jeter. Australian punter James Rendell is still struggling to adapt to the American style of play. His low line drives are a recipe for disaster. Although Faison is back at his receiver spot, it is not known whether he will reassume punt return duties.

SUMMARY

The Irish certainly know they have to play better this week. The question is from where that extra production will materialize. Offensively, Leonard’s injury is problematic in that it limits his strengths as an athlete. Even when healthy, however, he was uncomfortable in the pocket and threw several ill-advised or off-target passes. Steve Angeli should start in his place and Denbrock needs to adjust his approach accordingly. Angeli has been getting a larger share of snaps this week in practice, so anything is possible.

We should not overlook the offensive line. They were badly outplayed last week individually and collectively. Even the right side of the unit including center Ashton Craig was lousy. They must create lanes for Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price if the Irish are to have a chance at winning.

On defense, the line is underperforming due to a number of factors. Tackles Riley Mills and Howard Cross have not been productive. Cross in particular is far from his usual disruptive self. This indicates that the leg injury he nursed during fall camp is far more serious than the team has disclosed. Rubio’s continued absence hurts the situation at tackle as the undersized Donovan Hinish is best suited for spot duty. Jason Onye was supposedly ready for a breakout season but he’s off to a slow start.

At end, graduate transfer RJ Oben has been invisible. Only Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore have impressed, while Josh Burnham has flashed at times. Their pass rush efforts have been satisfactory but they typically give up over 50 pounds per man against the run. We may get a look at highly touted freshman Bryce Young this week.

These issues tell me the team’s shortcomings cannot be overcome by motivational speeches. Walters is an aggressive coach with nothing to lose. Expect him to bring pressure and physicality as often as possible to test whether Notre Dame can handle it. He may not have the most talented athletes on the field but we have already seen how relatively unimportant that can be.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will Notre Dame make changes to its starting lineup?
• Can the Irish defensive front seven contain Purdue’s running game?
• Which team will have the fewest penalties and turnovers?
• Will the Irish special teams bounce back from a poor game last week?
• Can Notre Dame’s secondary keep Card from having another stellar performance?
• Will Faison help rekindle the Irish passing game?
• Can Notre Dame reassert control over the line of scrimmage?
• Will the Irish coaches have a game plan that matches their personnel?

PREDICTION

I will get to the game prediction but will start with a guarantee. If Coach Denbrock calls another pass play on second down and one, watch for an aging alumnus from the Parseghian era to find his way onto the sideline and punch him in the face. No judge or jury would convict this guy, even if Denbrock did not get up. Furthermore, neither Coach Freeman nor his fellow staffers would intervene. They would quickly realize they were being spared having to buy out Denbrock’s bloated contract.

Okay, I got that out of my system. Let’s hope it does not come to this. Just to be sure, I trust there are some excellent lawyers among you if I require your services.

It is stunning that the season outlook for the Irish has changed so significantly in one week. They are certainly not the top five team that was advertised upon their return from Texas A&M. Neither are they as terrible as they appeared in the home opener. It is not encouraging, however, when your two oldest and best players are far from 100%. That they are trying to play through it is not necessarily a positive sign. It is discouraging if the coaches believe the next men in cannot get the job done.

I believe Notre Dame will play with more intensity. The larger question is how they will hold up physically along both lines with the same personnel. It is best to assume this game will not represent a complete “all is well” turnaround. Another tight, low-scoring contest is more likely than not. Uncertainty at quarterback makes it very difficult to imagine how the afternoon will unfold. Purdue is not even a Top 50 team but this rivalry usually produces a solid effort from them. My level of confidence in the Irish coaches to have the answers has also declined this week. As I write this now, I believe the Irish will survive this road trip, but barely.

NOTRE DAME 20 PURDUE 17

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