Sixth-ranked Notre Dame and Army (19th) travel to Yankee Stadium in New York City on Saturday for a renewal of their historic rivalry. This Shamrock Series game marks the 100th anniversary of the legendary Four Horsemen of Notre Dame. Sportswriter Grantland Rice coined this term for the Fighting Irish backfield after they upset Army by 13-7 in 1924. The Black Knights are 9-0 this season and are riding a 13-game winning streak. Saturday’s game will be broadcast nationally by NBC starting at 7:00 PM Eastern time.
Saturday’s battle is between the second and third ranked defensive teams in terms of fewest points allowed. Army has surrendered only 10.3 points per game while Notre Dame stands at 11.4. The Knights have also held opponents to an average of 274 total yards (fifth in the nation) while the Irish have allowed 277 (sixth).
Army’s Head Coach Jeff Monken is in his eleventh season in West Point, where he holds a 79-55 record. Despite owning the nation’s longest current winning streak, Monken understands why his team is an underdog this week.
“In terms of Notre Dame’s defense, if they’re not the best defense in the country they’re certainly one of them”, he said. “It’s a great challenge. I’ve talked to a lot of people about this game and a lot of questions about the physical disparities between their team and ours, and that’s real. I can thank my mentor and former coach Paul Johnson, as he always said, ‘They have 22 Parade All-Americans. We have 22 guys who have marched through Parade.’
Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman indicated he was not going to be sandbagged by Monken’s praise. When asked about Army’s success this season, he responded as follows:
“If we had a combine, would they be as fast maybe or as tall and athletic and run the drills as good as maybe some of the other teams you face?” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “Maybe not. But that has nothing to do with how good of a football team this team is. I mean, they are a dang good football team. They play hard. They take care of the football. They keep the ball away from you. They take the ball from you. It’s a challenge, man. It’s a really big challenge for us.”
On the injury front, Notre Dame confirmed that defensive tackle Howard Cross (sprained ankle) is available to play this week. Wide receiver Jaden Greathouse left the game against Virginia with a shoulder injury. No updates from the staff have been forthcoming but it is not believed to be serious. Kicker Mitch Jeter remains active although his range is limited.
Army is not reporting any injuries among its starters. To date, the Knights have enjoyed a remarkable record of keeping their starting lineup intact. The only noteworthy exception is that quarterback Bryson Daily sat out the game against Air Force.
NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. ARMY’S DEFENSE
Army has not allowed a touchdown in its last two games. They have given up only 12 all season. Monken runs a 3-4 set with 300-pound Kody Harris-Miller on the nose. He is flanked by ends Jack Latore (275) and Kyle Lewis (280). Outside linebacker Elo Modozie is a wrecking ball who will move forward on passing downs to rush the quarterback. He and Lewis will bring the most pressure.
Inside linebacker Kalib Fortner leads the team in solo tackles and tackles for loss. Andon Thomas, another sure tackler, is alongside. Chance Keith rounds out the unit. He is a smaller outside backer who drops into coverage when a fifth defensive back is required. This group has limited opponents to 82 yards rushing per game.
Notre Dame will find this front seven to be as stout as any unit they have faced all season. They should be able to protect quarterback Riley Leonard fairly well but the ground game will be hotly contested.
When the Irish elect to pass, their receivers will match up favorably against cornerbacks Donavon Platt, Jaydan Mayes, and backup Justin Weaver. Free safety Max DiDomenico is the leader of the secondary and most physical presence. The key for Notre Dame is to avoid third and long situations that they are usually unable to convert.
ARMY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE
Ball control is the name of the game for the Knights offense. Senior quarterback Bryson Daily has run for more than 1,000 yards. He is a 57% passer with only one interception in 51 attempts. As a team, Army has only three turnovers this year. The other two were fumbles by fullback Kanye Udoh. The tandem of Daily and Udoh has gained nearly 2,000 yards and scored 30 rushing touchdowns.
There are several more layers to this offense, though. Slot back Noah Short is dangerous on the edge. When Daily gets him the ball, Short averages almost 11 yards per carry and over 23 yards per reception. Army’s leading wide receiver is Casey Reynolds, who averages 27 yards per catch.
Aside from Daily’s ballhandling wizardry, the engine for this prolific attack is a line that averages 306 pounds. Tackles Connor Finucane and Lucas Scott are quality players who could start for many Power 4 programs. The Knights have allowed very few tackles for loss and only three sacks this season. They have converted on an impressive 54% of third downs and 84% on fourth down.
Coach Freeman certainly understands the task facing his defense. ”I met with the defensive staff and the first thing we said is that the biggest mistake we can make is to think that this is Navy 2.0. It’s not. It’s a different offense. They do some different things. They have a different identity and present a different challenge. Yes, it’s still a version of the triple option, which you see with some of the military schools, but they run it with different personnel.”
Notre Dame’s defense will strive to be assignment perfect to avoid a significant time of possession disadvantage. Army has already recorded a 14-minute touchdown drive this season. Overall, the Knights have held the ball for 35 minutes per game to 25 for opponents. The Irish must create negative plays and force punts to give the offense sufficient opportunities to score.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Trey Gronotte has made all five of his field goal attempts and is perfect on 42 extra points. His longest three-pointer is only 35 yards, though. Punter James Wagenseller has a 42-yard average but has been called upon a mere 18 times. James Rendell has punted 35 times for the Irish. Reserve running backs Lloyd Benson and Tyrell Robinson are the primary return men. They have had very few chances to date.
Notre Dame’s kicking game remains in flux as Mitch Jeter nurses a nagging hip injury. Alternates Zac Yoakam and Marcello Diomede have thus far failed to impress. Rendell has a penchant for misfiring on punts with a shank or low line drive. This element remains a concern. The best unit in this category for the Irish is the punt blocking team. If they can actually force Wagenseller onto the field this week, they may have another opportunity to shine. Regarding the return game, Jayden Harrison has shown promise recently with above-average success on kickoffs. Max Hurleman remains fearless on his punt returns. If only he had more speed.
SUMMARY
I believe by now you understand the crux of this preview. Army is not only a stronger team than Navy, but they are better than most Irish opponents to date. Any expectation that this game will be a typical service academy beatdown should be dismissed.
Obviously, Notre Dame cannot afford to waste an offensive series by going three and out. They need to seize the advantage by forcing the Knights to play from behind. If the reverse happens, one wonders if the Irish passing game is reliable enough to carry them. Leonard and his receivers have not been under true duress in several weeks. The catastrophic interception that ended the Northern Illinois debacle remains an albatross over their playoff aspirations.
Penalties and other self-inflicted wounds will be more consequential this week than last. Notre Dame must be the aggressor and force Army to make uncharacteristic mistakes. This strategy worked well against Navy but the Knights are unlikely to be as generous.
Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:
- Can the Irish defense get off the field on third or fourth down?
- Will Leonard and his wide receivers take advantage of Army’s secondary?
- Can Notre Dame run the ball for 150+ yards?
- Which team will win the turnover battle?
- Can the Irish avoid drive-killing penalties on offense?
- Which team will be able to break off big chunk plays?
- Which quarterback will face the most pressure in the pocket?
- Can the Irish make a field goal if they need to?
PREDICTION
Army has playoff aspirations of its own. One has to wonder if the Knights’ magical season of few turnovers and fewer injuries is fueled by destiny. Their unimpressive schedule to date provides a partial explanation but there is more substance to their success story.
Monken has built a culture of winning that the Knights will not easily relinquish. This game should be very competitive through the first half and possibly much longer. Despite the game’s proximity to West Point, this is a home game for Notre Dame. A supportive crowd should help but Army will be amply represented as well. Assuming turnovers and mistakes balance out, superior offensive talent and a suffocating Irish defense should prevail.
“Outlined against a blue-gray October sky the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore they are known as famine, pestilence, destruction and death. These are only aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Miller, Crowley and Layden. They formed the crest of the South Bend cyclone before which another fighting Army team was swept over the precipice at the Polo Grounds this afternoon as 55,000 spectators peered down upon the bewildering panorama spread out upon the green plain below.” Grantland Rice, October 18, 1924.
NOTRE DAME 28 ARMY 13
Tell John what you think in the comments below
Coleman Clarke says:
Good analysis as usual. However, i believe that ND wins this games 38-18. This will be the first real rest for Army and iI think that they will be overwhelmed by our running game. Army is solid but this does nor have to be close if a focused Irish team shows up.
Will says:
There are several good reasons to fear an Army upset on Saturday. First of all Army has had two weeks to prepare for this game. They will be ready, rested and revved up with the game being played in their own back yard in Yankee Stadium. Second, Army has momentum. They have won 13 games in a row. None of these games has been close. Third, in addition to a relentless offensive attack, Army has a tenacious defense that gives up only 10 points a game. Fourth, Army in no way resembles Navy. This year Navy shifted to a finesse, spread option offense. Army, plays a strictly, no pass power running option attack that no one has been able to stop. Their offense will attack Notre Dame’s biggest weakness – the D-line (especially with Cross out on injury). Yes, ND has an elite defense (especially against the pass), but ND has been susceptible to being gashed with runs up the middle. Fifth, Army, unlike Navy, will not give away the game with turnovers. Bottom line ND will be in the fight of their lives. For Army this is their biggest game since the World War 2 years. This is their once in a lifetime Super Bowl. Consequently, I think Army has an excellent chance to win this game. If a 6-5 NIU team can beat ND, an undefeated Army team surely can. Freeman better have his guys ready or this will be a very depressing night. My hope is that Freeman learned a lesson from NIU, understands the risks that Army poses, has come up with an effective game plan, and on Saturday night will motivate his guys to give 100 percent. My prediction: ND 21 Army 20. This is going to be a dogfight…a game for the ages, which is only fitting since this is the 100 year anniversary of the 4 Horseman game.
Coleman Clarke says:
You guys are overvaluing Army in my humble opinion. They haven’t played any highly regarded opponents .. this will not be close.
Jerrod says:
Agree, this will be a blowout. Credit to Army for playing well but they probably lose to most power 5 teams.
Irony – if we win big, Army drops out of the top 25 and this is not considered a good win by the committee. If we win close, Army remains ranked and its considered a good win. The worse we perform in a win, the better we allegedly are.
Why do some get worried because its the other teams “once in a lifetime Super Bowl”? Most teams choke in thier once in a lifetime superbowl. That phrase needs to die.
The Obvious says:
I agree that this will be a tough game. Any turnovers may be a key factor in the final score – which I never predict.
BigWave96 says:
They may have won 13 games in a row but all were against teams that can’t sniff the top 25. The last ranked team they beat was an Air Force team that eventually finished out of the 2023 rankings, so please spare us the “this is their Super Bowl”… that tired thread has been dragged out every time we play any team outside the top 15.
I have no doubt that Army will come out fighting and will even score a touchdown or two. I know that they’ve had two weeks to focus on this but, as Iron Mike says, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
Irishwolf says:
Thank you John for the pregame analysis- always interesting.
Army has not played upper echelon teams but they have played well throughout. That kind of momentum can be good in terms of ‘expectant confidence’, or bad in terms of perhaps running into an Irish wall that is much more stout than previous opponents. We’ll have to wait and see.
I think the game comes down to how the Irish O-line handles the Army D-line ends. ND’s O-line can get mauled from time to time and this would be a big problem for the Irish, both in runs and passesI think the Irish O-line wins a long slugfest but not by much. And….if we cannot kick field goals it might a Saturday of yelling at the tv a lot.
Irish 28. Army 17
Jake in Cali says:
JVAN,
UPSET ALERT:
Army plays keep away from the Irish and prevents the Irish from imposing their will.
Army will QB sneak at least 6 or 7 times to pick up crucial first downs.. It’s going to be very frustrating to watch…
Not convinced our OL is any good… Army, as you mentioned, is very stout upfront on the D side of the ball!
The CFP dream ends on Saturday night…
Army 20
ND 17
Richard says:
Service Academies = Discipline, Iron Will, Never quit mentality. It will be close. ND should prevail but every minute of play will require relentless Mental and Physical toughness.
Murph says:
V thank you for your game insight and summary . I’m concerned about our passing game and third down conversion. We have shown improvement in passing but at times our passing game goes into an extensive period of drought .On occasions this has dried up our third down conversion success.The defense has had the teams back and Army will test it using all four downs to keep drives going. This is a good Irish team that is playing for a playoff spot. If Leonard is on all facets of the game will favor the Irish; otherwise we’re facing Army with tough Cadets who might take the Irish down to the wire ! A score of 23 to 17 Irish. A last minute touchdown pulls us out! I’m hoping Leonard shows up big time; with a big win . I felt Dennrock left Leonard in against Virginia to work on pass plays in the second half. I didn’t see a whole lot of success. Let’s see what he has come up with.
RayMorell says:
Hey Jake let’s see you Army betting ticket so we can all see if you really believe what you just said.
ED CHRISTOPHER ND '67 says:
Jake is clearly a glass half empty man or a natural Devil’s advocate.
If the boys keep their focus in spite of all the game activities in NYC and other noise,
they should win handily. While the West Point Ring Knockers are true, tough Patriots,
they have not seen a mentally and physically tough defense like the Irish. Army won’t
score twenty points. Notwithstanding Army’s ball control, ND will score enough for a decisive victory.
ND 31 ARMY 14
mike'73 says:
Army is getting blown WAY out of proportion. It has the worst schedule in the country to date, and it has played against the worst collection of offenses and defenses, by rankings. Put those up against a motivated and precision-playing Army offense and you get their output, and the same for their defense and its stats. The concerns for ND are: 1) overconfidence, as was seen vs NIU; 2) playing un-focused and getting caught unawares by the speed and precision of Army’s offense, and thus getting behind by 2 scores early; 3) and then beginning to press, making unforced errors and TO’s while trying to gain an extra yard to two; 4) Denbrock stubbornly getting all up in his spread offense system, wasting offensive series in a sequence of 3-and-outs, and causing the team to fall further behind as Army dominates TOP. This should NOT be close, after halftime, within ND winning going away in the 4th Q. Once again it’s all about the O-line and Denbrock. Prediction: ND covers the spread.
Shooter80 says:
Curious analysis but the new woke Army will surrender early in this game. Multiple turnovers and penalties will do them in. I think they will also lose to Navy later this year.
Jake in Cali says:
Hey Ray,
I think you’re on the wrong website…
This has nothing to do with a betting ticket or gambling.. Please go to Draft Kings… I think you somehow got lost along the way…
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