You have to take reward into account as well.

You have to take reward into account as well.
by SUJB9 (2018-01-14 17:23:16)
Edited on 2018-01-14 17:28:24

In reply to: if a player is truly weighing the risk of injury posted by cujaysfan

Like I said, the difference between 1st and 3rd rounder is a significant amount of money. You have 1 year risk of injury there. Looking forward to your second contract, you have multiple years of potential for injury in addition to the potential that your skills will not translate as well to the NFL (where, if you're debating a jump as a 3rd rounder you, in theory, are making good progress at the college level). So in the first scenario, you're basically trading one year of risk/zero earnings versus trading multiple years of injury risk + translation to NFL risk for one year of your end-of-career contract money. It's certainly a difficult decision, but I still think the ability to jump from round 3 to round 1 money is a better investment than the investment of jumping in hopes of getting one extra end-of-career contract year. I think there are way more variables in the second scenario that you can't control/predict.

FV = PV (1 + r)^n *

I told them the exact same thing but would they listen? *

Yep. Go ahead and plug in the numbers for the last pick

of the first round from 2017 (and pretend this is your 2018 salary) and the first pick of the 3rd round for 2017 (I'll give you a hint, the first rounder wins).

yes but

knowing where i'm slotted today vs the unknown of tomorrow vs the possibility of injury

against the unknown possibility that i might increase my position (or decrease)

and the intangibles of: i like my teammates, i like my coaches, i like college, i'd like to try to win a NC, etc

make it a difficult formula to overcome making the leap today if they're simply looking at the math of it

and like i said - whatever they decide is fine by me

That's fair. It is a complicated equation.

But you can only make decisions based on what you know today, taking into account potential for the unknowns. If Coney/Tillery talked to the same scouts who are writing these articles about them, they'd get feedback that if they continue with their trajectory they could move from 3rd to 1st round. At that point, I think the math speaks for itself (if the last pick in the first round in 2018 invested all his bonus, he would have about $10 million more than the first pick of the 2017 3rd round in 2050 doing the same thing using your compound interest formula, even without that extra year. And that's just the guaranteed bonus). But there's no guarantees either way, I agree with that.