Agree with all, except I wouldn't count on the committee

placing an 11-1 ND ahead of an 11-1 Ohio St or Clemson. Regardless of what the "official" selection criteria may be, these committee members know that both these teams have beaten Alabama to win championships in recent years. When in doubt, they'll err on the side of selecting the program that has been generally stronger over multiple years. And I can't say I disagree. That's what they did in 2014 when they selected Ohio St over TCU & Baylor, and that decision was validated when Ohio St went on to win the title.

The simplest way for 11-1 ND to make it would be:
Alabama, OSU, and Clemson win out; Oregon loses to somebody; Big 12 winner has 2 losses.