Correct me if I'm wrong
by RallyingSon (2018-12-12 11:13:57)

In reply to: Sagarin has Clemson by 11.73 points  posted by ndzippy

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but I think his "recent" model predicts a closer game. ND's strength in computer ratings is being held down partly by the closeness of the scores against Vanderbilt and Ball State.

Normally I would say there's no reason to exclude games like that. But in this case they happened before a quarterback change that made quite a difference for the offense.

We don't get to have it both ways
by HTownND  (2018-12-12 12:55:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Our best win, against Michigan, was with Wimbush as the starting QB too.
For the purpose of these statistical models
by DakotaDomer  (2018-12-12 17:00:03)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Syracuse or Northwestern might be considered better wins than Michigan.

Because they overvalue home/away and overvalue point spread.
I wouldn’t use that as the “can’t have it both ways” point
by revressbo  (2018-12-12 13:16:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If anything, people could (probably reasonably) argue that we would’ve beaten Michigan by more with Book and Dex.

I think the “can’t have it both ways” is more applicable to people looking at the close A&M/Syracuse results for Clemson while not factoring in Lawrence wasn’t the QB for most of those games, yet still claiming Vandy/Ball State as flukes because of no Book.
You're right...I just didn't want to confuse things
by ndzippy  (2018-12-12 12:01:03)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Sagarin's model is pretty complicated, with four different predictors. I went with the "RATING" factor because it's a (in his words) "synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods".

A more accurate statement would have been, "Sagarin's model has Clemson by 4.24-12.41 points".