If you really want to scratch your head, look back at the 14

What do you consider "panning out"?

I see at least 13 guys from 2014 and 11 from 2015 who were contributors on offense, defense or special teams, and there are certainly some significant players in those classes. I only see 8 from the 2012 class (which was a smaller class).

I use Lou's guidelines of 2/3

I believe that Holtz said something like:

1/3 of a recruiting class will do well, 1/3 will contribute as a role player, and 1/3 will not make much of an impact

So 2/3 of your class should make some type of contribution

I like that. So let's go through the exercise

2012 – 8 Well (Shumate, Day, Stanley, Russell, Jaron, Prosise, Okwara, Daley), 2 Contributor (Harrell, Barrati), 6 minimal impact (Kiel, Neal, Ferguson, Mahome, C. Brown, Turner)

10/16ths -- Not quite 2/3

2013 – 10 Well (J. Smith, Folston, Rochell, Luke, Hunter, Smythe, Fuller, Onwualu, Robinson) 5 Contributor (Redfield, Bivin, Bryant, Elmer, Zaire) 8 Minimal impact (Montelus, McGovern, Randolph, Heuerman, Butler, Kinlaw, Matuska, Deeb)

15/23 - Close, but no cigar

2014 - 8 Well (Morgan, Nelson, Bars, Mutipher, Kizer, Tranquill, Martini, Newsome) 6 Contributor (Trumbetti, Jay Hayes, Weisher, Blankenship, Bonner, Watkins) 8 Minimal Impact (Brent, Watkins, Holmes, Luatua, Byrne, Cage, Hill, Williams, Mukwuah)

14/22 - Just short again

2015 - 9 Well (Wimbush, Mack, Dex, Tillery, EQ, Coney, Adams, Yoon, Boykin) 6 Contributor (Hoge, Crawford, Bilal, Ruhland, Coleman, Fertitta) 8 Minimal Impact (Barajas, Sanders, Taylor, Guyton, Tiassum, Dew-Treadway, White, Williams)

15/23 - Wah-waaaaah

It seems like we come up just short in each year. Sounds familiar.

I would wonder if Lou's classes actually saw this.

Let's start with the February 1990 class.

23 signings, 21 started at least one game.

Do the "well" part (it's around 17) - the whole thing gets to be damn depressing given our current state...

I'd argue those numbers support Lou's point

It's almost exactly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 each year, just as he predicted. Using 66.66% as an absolute cut-off seems kinda silly to me.

Brown was not minimal impact or even “only” a contributor

He was probably the 4th of 5th most productive player in that 2012 class (I’d have Stanley, Day and Russell ahead. Brown and Prosise about even. I’d have Brown ahead of Okwara, Jones and Shumate). Basically our 2nd-best WR behind Fuller in 2014 and 2015, huge catch at Oklahoma as a frosh in 2012, great leader. I appreciate your compilation and mostly agree with your assessments (have a few other players where I’d disagree, but reasonable minds can differ) but Brown was a great representative of the university and producer on the field, so I thought it was noteworthy to point that out.

Agree

Breezy was great. And Blankenship and Hoge have to be removed as contributors. Blankenship doesn’t deserve to be mentioned and Hoge’s only contributions are at BYU.

I'm old...my memory isn't what it used to be :) *

Haha, not a problem

Hope my post didn’t come across as calling you out; it was more to give credit to Brown. He was one of my favorite players.