In reply to: If you really want to scratch your head, look back at the 14 posted by SEE
I believe that Holtz said something like:
1/3 of a recruiting class will do well, 1/3 will contribute as a role player, and 1/3 will not make much of an impact
So 2/3 of your class should make some type of contribution
2012 – 8 Well (Shumate, Day, Stanley, Russell, Jaron, Prosise, Okwara, Daley), 2 Contributor (Harrell, Barrati), 6 minimal impact (Kiel, Neal, Ferguson, Mahome, C. Brown, Turner)
10/16ths -- Not quite 2/3
2013 – 10 Well (J. Smith, Folston, Rochell, Luke, Hunter, Smythe, Fuller, Onwualu, Robinson) 5 Contributor (Redfield, Bivin, Bryant, Elmer, Zaire) 8 Minimal impact (Montelus, McGovern, Randolph, Heuerman, Butler, Kinlaw, Matuska, Deeb)
15/23 - Close, but no cigar
2014 - 8 Well (Morgan, Nelson, Bars, Mutipher, Kizer, Tranquill, Martini, Newsome) 6 Contributor (Trumbetti, Jay Hayes, Weisher, Blankenship, Bonner, Watkins) 8 Minimal Impact (Brent, Watkins, Holmes, Luatua, Byrne, Cage, Hill, Williams, Mukwuah)
14/22 - Just short again
2015 - 9 Well (Wimbush, Mack, Dex, Tillery, EQ, Coney, Adams, Yoon, Boykin) 6 Contributor (Hoge, Crawford, Bilal, Ruhland, Coleman, Fertitta) 8 Minimal Impact (Barajas, Sanders, Taylor, Guyton, Tiassum, Dew-Treadway, White, Williams)
15/23 - Wah-waaaaah
It seems like we come up just short in each year. Sounds familiar.
Let's start with the February 1990 class.
23 signings, 21 started at least one game.
Do the "well" part (it's around 17) - the whole thing gets to be damn depressing given our current state...
It's almost exactly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 each year, just as he predicted. Using 66.66% as an absolute cut-off seems kinda silly to me.
He was probably the 4th of 5th most productive player in that 2012 class (I’d have Stanley, Day and Russell ahead. Brown and Prosise about even. I’d have Brown ahead of Okwara, Jones and Shumate). Basically our 2nd-best WR behind Fuller in 2014 and 2015, huge catch at Oklahoma as a frosh in 2012, great leader. I appreciate your compilation and mostly agree with your assessments (have a few other players where I’d disagree, but reasonable minds can differ) but Brown was a great representative of the university and producer on the field, so I thought it was noteworthy to point that out.
Breezy was great. And Blankenship and Hoge have to be removed as contributors. Blankenship doesn’t deserve to be mentioned and Hoge’s only contributions are at BYU.
Hope my post didn’t come across as calling you out; it was more to give credit to Brown. He was one of my favorite players.