3-stars can absolutely contribute. 4 & 5-stars change games.

To my Wisconsin point

ND does not have the elite talent needed to win a NC, well likely be a top ten team again though.

We have a lot more talent than Wisconsin

has ever dreamed of. I am fairly certain Kelly's worst class was still better than Wisconsin's best class in the entire history of their program. Our recruiting and NFL production average is on par with Oklahoma and Clemson and Michigan and Auburn and Florida and so forth (and a little bit behind, in order, Alabama, Ohio State, FSU, UGA, and LSU) and is leaps and bounds ahead of the Wisconsins of the world.

Whether we have the talent, especially at the top end, to win national titles remains a question, but it's silly to compare us to Wisconsin. Given evenly matched coaching and player development, we would skull drag them every single year.

No, I think we're Wisconsin

consistent top 10, top 15 team with good not great talent.

UW certainly has less talent than ND, but the overall story: good not great talent, consistently good not great results is likely where we are IMO. Are we EXACTLY Wisconsin, of course not. Are we playing out a version of their story? I think so.

2009 Wisconsin 10–3 5–3 T–4th W Champs Sports 16 16
2010 Wisconsin 11–2 7–1 T–1st L Rose† 8 7
2011 Wisconsin 11–3 6–2 1st (Leaders) L Rose† 11 10
2012 Wisconsin 8–5 4–4 3rd (Leaders)* Rose† 23‡ Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten Conference) (2013–2014)
2013 Wisconsin 9–4 6–2 2nd (Leaders) L Capital One 21 22
2014 Wisconsin 11–3 7–1 1st (West) Outback[a] 17[a] 17[a
2015 Wisconsin 10–3 6–2 T–2nd (West) W Holiday 21 21
2016 Wisconsin 11–3 7–2 1st (West) W Cotton† 9 9
2017 Wisconsin 13–1 9–0 1st (West) W Orange† 6 7
2018 Wisconsin 8–5 5–4 T–2nd (West) W Pinstripe

I didn't see a 4-8 dumpster fire on your list *

That wasn’t a talent issue.

That was a complete coaching failure. The 2016 team certainly had talented players.

I agree with your post though. Wisconsin has been consistent with multiple coaches.

Were an “aspirational” Wisconsin *

We have had #1 QB in the past, while he had a good career,

He wasn't the second coming. OTOH, we have had more 3 stars recently play above their ratings...

Not true, actually.

Lawrence and Higgins, sure. We are sorely lacking in those truly elite 5* recruits. However, we have a pretty nice stable of those guys in the 40-250 range, especially on the DL. We might have the best tandem of pass rushers in the country next year.

Fair. We're mostly lacking in elite skill position guys.

But that doesn't change the way I see things moving forward. If we can't find a way to land more elite play-makers at QB, WR, and RB, we're never going to compete for titles.

Tyree and Jordan Johnson can be those guys.

Tyree will likely end a 5* and Johnson is very close, in that top 35 range. I would say Jurkovec is in that class too. The bigger question to me is if a Chip Long/BK offense can properly utilize them.

I think you already know the answer to your question... *

Unfortunately, I think I do.

Let's call it a 5% chance that I'm wrong.