Never mind.
We will end up between 10 and 15.
At least for Notre Dame and Clemson. It’s still a Kelly program, you said it yourself. We know what we’ve got, a difference of 2 spots in recruiting rankings for either program doesn’t change a thing.
And Rivals isn't really the gold standard anymore, they've been falling behind a bit relative to the other sites, and 24/7 has a nice composite tool where they factor in recruiting rankings from several sites, including Rivals. One tool I wish they had, and perhaps they do and I just don't know where to look, is one that takes into account all the players on the roster.
Because while Clemson has some teams finishing consistently above them in those classes (like Alabama and Ohio State), there are some outliers in each of those classes above them, like Tennessee, Penn State, or USC for instance in some of those classes. So it doesn't really mean that Clemson had the 7th best recruiting class as a whole throughout those years, the reality is that they finished a bit better.
Overall Dabo is not "elevating" his roster as much as you think, but he has been getting more out of them than most coaches would. It's also not accurate to say that Kelly's rosters are merely top 12, there are more outliers in that range, so Kelly's roster likely falls closer to the 7 ranking you're attributing to Clemson. That doesn't mean what Kelly is doing is acceptable or anywhere near good enough to actually win the playoffs though, and to make matters worse, even though Kelly is improving ever so slightly, the gap is widening between ND and teams like Clemson, UGA, Alabama and OSU.
A few other things worse considering: Dabo has had the same defensive coordinator this entire time, so better continuity means fewer transfers out, more even recruiting (e.g. you're not switching back and forth between a 3-4 and a 4-3 or something like that) and players don't have to learn multiple systems. They've also established good depth so players aren't forced to play early like ND's secondary in 2016, and the lower rated players have time to develop rather than getting tossed into the fire.
Conversely, Dabo's also been better at putting teams away, affording him lots and lots of playing time for those deep units so they're not forced into situations like ND faces at linebacker this year. Look at how their defensive line didn't miss a beat in the playoffs last year...
When you are able to recruit at a high level for multiple years the drop or talent margin's from the first and second units is very small.
Practice actually becomes tougher than the game.
I knew the under-achievement was bad...but didn’t realize it was that bad.
Pretty dreadful...
Looks like I made a few poor assumptions. It was surprising to see USC so high on there going back through a few years, but apparently this aggregator can't really factor in line depth on either side of the ball, explaining why FSU and USC seem like such bad underperformers.
compare defensive line recruiting.
In summary, while the overall rankings may be similar, Clemson had 12 5 stars to our zero, and guys like Lawrence, Wilkins, Hyatt, and Higgins happened to be some of the guys who made a difference (the speedster Ross was a 4-star they plucked from Alabama's back yard and had an excellent "recruiting cohort" for what that is worth) against us. Our recruiting has returned to an acceptable level after the Davie/Weis/WIllingham years, but we also aren't getting the very top guys consistently like Alabama, Clemson, UGA (not sold on him as a coach yet) or OSU (same) are. BleedsGreen04 had good points about Clemson's consistency, scheme continuity, depth such that practice matters, and closing teams out early to get the young guys playing time, all of which I agree with completely, and while FB is a little different than basketball, a superstar like Cameron Newton or Tebow/Harvin can open up the game against a talented foe. As for ND, our overall depth is getting better and I think we should be able to win most games on raw talent even if we lag the very top few, we should be able to have elite OL/TE/QB depth, and guys like Tyree & Johnson (not sure if we have the elite DL TCIrish03 alluded to) should open things on offense.
Edit - what I wouldn't give for those old Lou & Vinny Cerrato teams, and I can never forgive Monk for what he did to ND football. Man, those teams were loaded with talent, and while times have changed for the worse, I'd love to see one more run like that again!
Under Davie, Willingham*, and Weis. It's as if we've been having the same discussion each year for over 20 years.
*Abysmal recruiting in general
And they will again this year. Did you stop watching several years ago?
They’re not Clemson, but literally no one else is in their category.
ND’s Dline recruiting was bad for years, but they solved it over the last several years through increased development. They’re going to have multiple DLs get drafted next year.
"ND’s Dline recruiting was bad for years, but they solved it over the last several years through increased development."
You "solve" bad recruiting with better recruiting. Recruiting and post-matriculation development are two completely separate ingredients, both of which are essential. Sure you can use one to compensate the other, but that only gets you so far for so long.