Here's how he calculates

Here's how he calculates
by irishmitten (2019-08-20 17:18:29)

In reply to: Phil Steele predicting a "Bear" market for Notre Dame. posted by G.K.Chesterton

Phil Steele's Stock Market Indicator is the average of the win totals from two and three seasons ago minus the win total of the previous season.

Notre Dame is 7 ('16 4-8, '17 10-3) minus 12 ('18 12-0) for an SMI of -5.0
This means he predicts the Irish will win 5 less games in 2019 for an overall record of 7-5.

So he predicts Cincy will go from 11-2 to 4-9? *

There is some value to "historical norming"

But using 2 and 3 years ago as the historical norm isn't terribly useful, given the possibility of an outlier season in those years that would constitute half of the baseline.

Lazy use of statistics if you ask me. And I'm a big Phil

Steele fan

Or a major upgrade in coaching.

Which is not the case here, but still...

1985 5-6
1986 5-6
1987 8-4

1988 prediction would be 5-6 then?