In reply to: I think the probability that ND will win out is up posted by SEE
Don't just read the contract stuff at the link. Read or watch the comments by ex-players.
Michigan under Jim Harbaugh:
~0-4 against Ohio State
~1-9 vs. top-10 opponents
~0-7 as an underdog
~1-6 on the road against ranked opponents
~Five losses by at least 21 points, including three of their last five games
advantage. Brian Kelly refused to allow Book to take advantage.
Book probably had his best game ever in terms of throwing the ball well 15+ yards down the field. The last drive of the first half and the last scoring drive were repeatable the entire game -- if Kelly just allowed the offense to try doing what was working virtually at will.
UGA had no answer at all for the intermediate throws in the 15-25 yard range down the field. When actually thrown, ND was completing those at a high enough rate to score on nearly every single possession (let's assume we would have self destructed several times even if called).
Instead, Kelly hammered the 3 yard routes to death, UGA adjusted and either took them away entirely on many plays or crushed our WR instantly after the catch. Watching it live from a high vantage point -- you could see UGA literally forming a wall of 3 defenders in the middle of crossing routes knowing for 100% certain the ball was going there.
If Kelly simply mixed and matched what he did within each series - UGA was in severe trouble because they could not stop the intermediate throws and the shorter ones were hurting them too until they realized that was the one and only play they had to defend.
Kelly's offense isn't necessarily a failed system. It's failing because of his execution of the system:
1) Zone running can have dramatically more variations of runs than Kelly chooses to practice, perfect and then call
2) His passing game can have a dramatically wider array of routes, attempted throws, etc. He simply doesn't try that variety in any single game.
Book has limitations that are not great for being able to win a title. That doesn't mean if Kelly would get the F out of the way the offense could not be dramatically better even with Book.
This game was extremely winnable -- because the defense turned out to be in game 8 form by game 3. Lea managed to get the new players on D to play at a top 10 level in a span of 7 days. Kelly can't do that on offense in a span of 10 years at ND and 4 years per player.
The throws were almost always immediate -- snap, catch and instantly throw. Check downs happen at a much slower rate.
You could also see the entire field from our upper deck seats -- which actually aren't bad for football games because of the ability to see the entire field every play.
Since we ran those 3 yard throws in an infinite loop, we began to focus heavily on your point -- is he checking down. The conclusion was no -- largely because of my first point, but also because of what the other players were doing. You could see the other routes being run, the attempts to block by other players, etc.
I'd say at least 90% of those crossing routes were designed calls.
Interesting to me was that GA was down 2 CB's and Finke seemed to get zero separation all night. Blanketed.
Maybe that had to do with the routes he ran and the D Georgia was in.
I've seen many ND fans lament not going to Claypool more before our last TD.
They forced the ball to him and it worked--he made plays.
As you stated--the medium and long passes were there for the taking, but Kelly/Long played too tight.
They had absolutely no answer at all for the seam route to the TE. Had they been forced to adjust for that route, you would have seen the outside WRs become wide open.
Georgia looked very much like a defense missing its top DBs. When ND attacked that aspect of their defense we ate them alive. The shocking part was Book was getting a lot of time to throw the entire game -- sans the final two plays. He unexpectedly had the time to wait to throw deeper -- and when called it worked almost a will.
To El K's point -- on those crossing routes, you didn't see the TE sprinting down the center of the field, etc. They were designed to be short throws.
I suspect Kelly believed Book would be under instant pressure and planned for short throws. Great. Not a terrible assumption to make. However, when it was proven false, and we also were completing the intermediate throws consistently, Kelly became a proven dumbass because he was unable to adjust and actually call what was working.
Had he done it, the short game he was calling would have opened back up too -- and then an amazing thing could have happened: Georgia wouldn't know if we were going short or long each play and would have to attempt to defend both every play!
Or does shit for brains handle playcalling?
I ask because I do not know
Chip supposedly calls the plays--but I found it interesting during the Louisville game they showed Kelly on the sideline with his nose buried in a play sheet....
Truthfully--zero will change with this offense as long as Kelly is coach.
OL coach, OC etc.
So my idea of getting rid of Chip is probably grasping at straws because nothing will change.
here is what actually happens day to day.
1) Kelly allows the DC to control every single aspect of what happens on defense during practices and games: how to allocate time, who to play at each position, what techniques to teach or not teach, etc. He also allows the DC to create every game plan on his own and lets him do anything he wants during games. Kelly spends 0.1% of his time on defense.
The net result is if you have Elko or Lea -- you can get a good result. If you have BVG, you get catastrophic results. Unlike Holtz, Kelly is unable to personally step in on defense and stop any bleeding if it exists. As the BVG era pointed out -- he actually can't even recognize that bleeding is happening until you have bled out entirely.
2) Kelly spends 99.9% of his time on offense. He controls every single aspect of the offense. He personally mandates all practice time, what types of plays are and are not allowed, who plays at every position, how practices are run, how much time is spent on any aspect of the offensive side of the ball.
Long makes suggestions on what ND should do. Long handles administrative elements of running the offense, looking after players on that side of the ball, etc. Long is basically an assistant coach with the title OC.
Long prepares drafts of game plans. Kelly edits them. During games Long calls plays based on parameters mandated to him by Kelly and Kelly has a veto per play during games. Kelly tells Long we need to pass here, run now, do a long pass, short pass, etc.
It isn't that hard to grasp. Offensively, it is nearly identical to the Holtz era. Lou also had offensive coordinators on his staff. Lou absolutely controlled every single aspect of our offense. That's no different under Kelly.