Probably in with only one loss, even if it's a blowout.

Probably in with only one loss, even if it's a blowout.
by revressbo (2020-11-24 19:36:18)

In reply to: CFP: ND is #2; PAC-12 and Big-12 have no chance at playoff posted by NavyJoe

I was thinking previously that a blowout loss to Clemson in the ACCCG would eliminate us. Now, I'm not as sure. The committee has Clemson at #3 right now, ahead of OSU. Doesn't look like BYU or the Pac 12 champ will jump us even if undefeated (though you never know) and even if we lose to Clemson by 28. I think we'd still be ahead of A&M in that case given we'd each have blowout losses to top teams, and we'd have a comparable, but slightly better win (Clemson vs. UF). None of the other top-10 teams outside the current top-4 can probably pass us if we finish with only one loss except maybe Cincinnati, and even that I doubt (assuming a Northwestern loss to Ohio State. And if Northwestern beats OSU, we'll finish ahead of the Bucks, so it's kinda irrelevant either way).

What could perhaps mess that up is if Florida upsets Bama in Atlanta. That would probably get both Florida and Bama in, combined with Clemson and Ohio State.

Of course, we can avoid worrying about that by just winning.

Sampson: If ND wins out, it's in the Rose Bowl vs. Ohio St.

Notre Dame's path in the Playoff is pretty clear if Alabama wins out:

If Notre Dame wins out, it's off to the Rose Bowl, probably to face Ohio State.

If Notre Dame loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game close, most likely outcome is the Sugar Bowl against Alabama.
— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) November 25, 2020

If we lose by 28 to a healthy Clemson team

it draw some serious doubt on the condition of the Clemson team we beat on November 7th. May make people think that a win over a full strength Florida team is better than beating Clemson at home when they have a ton of injuries... or roughly 5 touchdowns worth of injuries.

True, but the alternative is a Bama-A&M rematch.

In that scenario, the quality of A&M's signature win over Florida may be judged by how well or how poorly Florida fares vs Alabama in the SEC title game. If Florida gets blown out then I don't think the committee will have much appetite to pit Bama against an A&M team that they've already blown out. They'll probably just conclude that the entire SEC outside of Alabama is 2nd rate.

Good call *

Loser talk. The question is, when beat Clemson again, #1? *