No, I'm saying we wouldn't lose 6 games "minimum"

No, I'm saying we wouldn't lose 6 games "minimum"
by Chicagond99 (2021-10-19 13:24:55)

In reply to: So you're going to stand pat that we'd only lose 5 games? posted by tdiddy07

And would be much better than 5-6 against that slate. You can toss out the Toledo win this year if you want, so you can make the schedules even with number of games.

When you lose to a team, they have a better resume overall. So, for example, if we lost to 7-4 BC, you'll say "This is a fairly solid 8-4 team". But if we beat them, then they're "just another 7-5 team". If Wisconsin ends up 7-5 this year (which is probably the most likely outcome), you're discounting that win. But if we lost that game, they theoretically would finish 8-4, then you call them a pretty good team. You're basically assuming a harder SOS when we are shittier. And the fact is Sagarin has us rated as the 6th best schedule so far (yes, I know that will drop a lot), and we are 5-1 against it and ranked #13. Not a stellar season or one to get too excited about. But to say that this team would be worse than the 5-6 2001 squad. Their SOS was 14 according to Sagarin, so I'm not saying they played a terrible slate. But I don't think 2021 ND would be 5-6 against the 14th ranked schedule this year.

No, you can't just toss out the worst played game

and say it doesn't count. It's a relevant data point. We are capable of playing like shit against a shit opponent. It reflects 1/6 of our performances to date.

And I understand what you were trying to do with the records. There are some circumstance in which the point you make should be kept in mind. This is not one of those circumstances. Those games were played and have an additional data point for the quality of the 2001 opponent that we're now comparing the 2021 ND squad to. The point you make is inapplicable to this exercise.

Data points

I understand your point. But you do need to keep in mind the quality of opponent that we beat this year (and their record reflecting a loss against us) then if you’re comparing 2001 opponents to 2021 opponents.

Also of note….I only was throwing out the Toledo buy game for our 12th game (that’s basically what every larger program has to do with the 12th game) to compare against an 11 game 2001 schedule. But yes, you should keep it in to compare data. And remember….that bad 2001 WVU team had a Sagarin rating of 83, while Toledo currently sits at 73 (2001 Navy was an ungodly 166, while 2021 Navy - as crappy as they are - are 118). I’m sure that if there was a 12th game back then, it would be another Group of 5 buy game as well.

Obviously there is no way to win a hypothetical argument. But I am guessing most computer models would say that 2021 ND would fare better than 5-6 against the 2001 schedule.