Exactly
by Chicagond99 (2021-10-31 21:02:26)

In reply to: I reject this formula.  posted by squid

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Most likely, Cincy will have wins over 3 teams with 3 losses or less (possibly even 4) if they win out. Yet most will say their schedule isn’t tough enough (and that is at the very least a fair point for debate).

I’m not saying ND deserves to get in the playoff (we don’t as of now). I’m not saying we will get in the playoff (we probably won’t and obviously wouldn’t if the season ended today). But we haven’t played as terrible of a schedule as you suggest (I know it will drop a decent amount from here, but it’s ranked #9 as of now). And this is a weird season with more ranked teams losing than ever before so far (which throws off what the “norm” was in the past). So if we win out and mayhem continues to ensure, there’s still a chance we get into the playoff. And even though I know many here would hope against that, getting into a playoff gives you a shot at least. So I think that would be a good thing!

Cincy's opponents' schedules are padded by the fact
by 88_92WSND  (2021-11-01 07:55:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

that they are playing the likes of SMU, UAB, Morgan State, Murray State, almost exclusively, vs having 1 or 2 tomato cans on the schedule. Beating teams that lose to UT Martin, vs beating teams that lose to a down FSU is not co-equal. At some point, the breadth of talent does matter.

Nit: SMU is one of the tougher G5 teams
by tf86  (2021-11-01 08:57:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Still hanging out around the bottom of the Top 25.

Cincinnati could have as many as four wins against teams with < 4 losses: Houston (likely opponent in the AAC championship game), ND, SMU and UCF (the most questionable one in this group, UCF is already at 3 losses but should be favored in at least every remaining game except SMU). That doesn't necessarily mean that they have a tough schedule, however.
Also
by Chicagond99  (2021-11-01 09:26:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Beating teams that lose to 1-3 AAC teams sitting in 2nd to last in their conference (i.e. Miss State losing to Memphis this year) seems to still carry weight.

Anyway, 100% agree that Cincy's schedule isn't as tough as most Power 5 ones. But I am just pointing out that the initial "how many 3 loss or less teams you beat" view is flawed, especially when he's including wins over Group of 5 teams with 3 or less losses in the calculation (i.e. 2019 OSU had 2 of those).