538 gives us a 1 in 3 chance of getting in if we win out.

That's probably based primarily on the odds of lots of teams ahead of us losing. I think in reality our chances are lower than that because of:

1) A lack of "quality" wins. There are only two tier-1 programs on our schedule this year (Florida State and USC) and they're both pretty bad. Wisconsin is probably our best win so far, and the Badgers aren't even ranked in the AP poll.

2) The "eye" test. We would need to finish the season with a run of games where we don't play to the level of our opponent. With the exception of USC every game we've won has been close (within a touchdown) at some time in the fourth quarter. Only Wisconsin looks like a blowout win based on the final score.

Good post, by the way.