I'm not saying that all of them will leave, but a lot will, especially if they've been drafted. The team will put a hard sell on because they don't want to have to worry about free agency a la Vesey.

on a regular basis to healthy programs. Losing an overage undrafted player like Oglevie is rarer, but ultimately reflects well on his development. At age 23, he had little to gain by playing amateur sports with a two-year offer on the table.

My concern is that I’m going to open this board and find out Cale signed an ELC and is reporting for the AHL Playoffs.

I need El K to create a Private Mesage option so I can post it but only you see it

me re-think my rosy forecast.

It'd be a pretty big leap for someone to convince an NHL GM that someone who managed to make it through his draft years without being drafted was worth taking a risk on based on 1 season of NCAA hockey. It's possible, but I'm wondering how likely that is. Teams got to see Petersen play at a high level for 3 full seasons. He was as known a commodity as a signee can be.

this is one position where GM mistakes can haunt you.

is a good gamble. It only costs money and doesn't tie up your cap. But signing a goalie also forces you to give him development time over those already in your system. Obviously, you can only put one goalie on the ice at a time and not playing any particular goalie would potentially thwart his development. Even given Cale's advanced age for his class year, I think another year as the unquestioned starter at Notre Dame can only be a good thing for his pro potential, but it's hard to turn down an offer if one arrives. I'm not sure is he is yet worth a shot for any NHL teams.

based on one year's numbers (as we know, he played virtually zero the year before). One year is a ludicrously unreliable database for a G. Look at Oettinger's and Woll's crappy numbers this year vs. last. And they're two highly rated guys. Gillies and Demko were high picks and they're development projects (as almost all G are). Anybody remember Jack Campbell? If I'm head of hockey operations of an NHL team I might personally boot my GM out a 30th floor window if he jumps on Cale right now.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think it's likely Cale is back next year. At a minimum, I expect some NHL team(s) will get him into a developmental camp this summer for a tryout. But I wouldn't be surprised if he signs somewhere before then. At 22 yo, he's already on the older end for a prospect so if he has hopes of a professional career he needs to move on. There is far more risk than reward to coming back to ND for another season. It'll be near impossible to improve (and even hard to match) the season he had this year (especially with the players leaving on the blue line). So his he's probably at his peak leverage for contract negotiations. If he gets any ELC offer(s), I suspect he'll take it.

I don't know what NHL scouts think of him, but I know Avs fans want them to take a chance on Cale since he's from Colorado and the Avs need another goalie or 2 in their system.

Losing Cale would hurt, but I think St. Cyr is a good replacement. While I doubt he'll win the Richter next year, I also don't expect a giant dropoff in goaltending. And unless he grows another couple inches, I expect he'll be our goalie for the next 3 years.

I expect ND's biggest growing pains next year will be along the blue line. Gilbert leaving hurt the depth and leaves only 4 guys returning (and I still wonder if Peeke might leave too). In comparison, we didn't have any D-men leave/graduate following 2016-17 and I think only 1 left after 2015-16. IMO there are some big holes to fill here for the incoming freshmen.

While we'll need some contributions from freshmen at the forward spots, I still think there's a solid group returning that I'm not really worried there.

It's tough to make predictions without knowing the impact of the freshman class, but I think the team should be in the tournament next year. Unfortunately the realist in me says I should put off aspirations for a return to the Frozen Four until 2020.

It's frustrating as a fan to see good players leave, but I always remind myself that it's a sign of a great program. And while back-to-back Frozen Fours are nice, I suspect "Come to ND and we'll get you an ELC" is probably a far stronger recruiting pitch for the program.

Gillies, Demko, and even Cal are good examples. He might be better off doing another year at ND and cementing himself as a solid prospect. The guys I mentioned were well-regarded and drafted. He's basically had one (very good) year.

Agree he needs more development, but that can happen at ND or in the ECHL/AHL. And in the ECHL/AHL he gets to focus on hockey full-time and play 70+ games without any additional academic burden.

I'm sure his experience at Waterloo is fresh in his mind. He got his offer from ND with a 1.85 GAA and .937 save % in 28 games. The following year (with player turnover and a younger roster) his numbers dipped to 2.47 GAA and 0.906 save %. He's facing a similar situation at ND next year with Gilbert/Gross/Wade leaving. The possibility that his numbers would drop next year is a big risk and would like be catastrophic for his professional aspirations (although he'd still end up with an ND degree as a decent consolation prize).

If he signs an ELC this year, the risk will be on the NHL team. He'll have 2 years to prove himself worthy (and can go back to get his degree at a later date if things don't work out).

His success this past season probably maximizes his options/leverage for an ELC. He likely has interest from a couple teams which gives him options to choose the best situation for him (bonus $$, coaches, depth charts).

If he returns to ND, then the risk ends up on Cale without much upside. Best case scenario is he wins the Richter again, but that probably doesn't add much to improve the leverage he has negotiating an ELC since length and $$ are capped for the ELC. Worst case scenario is he (and the young blue line) struggle, his numbers drop (like they did at Waterloo), and he loses his chance at an ELC (and as an older prospect at 23 years old it's less likely he'd be able to earn one after that even with remaining eligibility at ND).

It's pretty much a certainty that he didn't have a full scholarship last year. So maybe Jackson could find a way to get him a full ride next year to try and entice him back. After taxes, it'd probably be about a wash when comparing what he'd earn from an ELC compared to the expense of a year at ND.

All of this really depends on what NHL scouts think of him. His limited success at ND is definitely a red flag, so teams may have him come to developmental camps this summer as a tryout to earn an ELC.

As a fan, I want him back at ND. But if he has an opportunity for an ELC, I have a hard time seeing him pass it up if he has aspirations for a professional career.

of an NHL team. He's a risk right now. But that also colors it from his standpoint. GAA and SP are cool stats but NHL scouts look at other issues - size, athleticism, and mental attributes. You place way too much stock in the numbers - unless he drops to a .900 SP or GAA above 2.5, his numbers won't be "catastrophic" to his aspirations. I think he has a very good chance of elevating his NHL aspirations with another solid season. Right now he's an NCAA one-year wonder. And this all assumes that ND is going to crater next year.

Scouts definitely look at other attributes, but the things you mentioned aren't likely to change much with another season at ND. Those assessments can be made by scouts now (and who knows what they think...this discussion may be moot if scouts have already decided he doesn't have what it takes).

The argument for another season at ND is to see if he can reproduce/improve his success over a larger body of work. Since it's not likely scouts are going to watch most of his games, that assessment usually comes from the stats (although the scouts are going to be using fancier stats than I have access to...but all I can comment on is save % and GAA).

I'm also an Avs fan. Their goalie situation is a mess at every level. The goalie of the future is just finishing his ELC and has steadily regressed (and was awful in his 3 NHL games). They have a couple guys in minors that do not project to the NHL. There are probably 2 (maybe 3) spots in AHL/ECHL that are open, but they don't currently have much in their system to fill those spots. That's the kind of situation where I think a team might take a chance on Cale (and the fans would fully support the team and GM if they went this route).

Goalie prospecting/development is such a crapshoot that I suspect that there are probably some more teams out there with minor league spots open this summer that need to be filled (although I haven't looked in depth though other teams' depth charts).

I don't know what scouts think of him. He's definitely a risk (but so is literally every goalie prospect). At a minimum, I think he's invited to NHL camps this summer to see how he compares to other prospects (and based off that he may get an offer if he impresses...and if he gets an offer I think he'll take it). So for me, I won't be confident he's coming back to ND unless I don't hear anything about him a few weeks after those camps are done.

I'm clearly in the glass half empty camp. It's good to hear your counterpoint because the more I talked to Avs fans the more they convinced me he wouldn't be back at ND next year. ;)

- who appear to have generally been in hiding the past few years - probably are vastly unqualified to evaluate this and are reacting with "sports fan" analysis. While you're correct that all G present "risk", some do more than others. Guys who have been id'd early, have the attributes, and are thoroughly scouted for the draft and end up being high picks, are clearly less of a risk than a kid who was largely unnoticed, didn't play for a year, and has one good college season under his belt. I have no clue what a current scouting evaluation of Cale is but I'll wager a nice sum that it's not at the level of Oettinger, Woll, Hart, Samsonov, Sorokin, etc etc, or of Gillies, Demko, etc. So I think that another solid season couldn't hurt his stock and I really don't see everything in front of him blowing up at ND next year. When you refer to an ELC we're talking about a 2-way. Unless Cale thinks he's going to make an NHL roster and stick, he'd be signing essentially for AHL money. That's not hitting the lottery. Another good year at ND could add to the chances of making a team out of camp and at least moves him up on the ELC age level. We'll see. For the record, I'm not addressing this from the standpoint of wanting him back. I do, but if he leaves I think we'll manage in G.

My impression is that most organizations feel less of a need to grab someone who they control for several more years and are content to wait until junior year to sign, unless they're a one-and-done level talent. Most will sign after their junior year if they sign at all.

By comparison, the late-bloomers who weren't drafted will often have someone try to strike while the iron is hot when they have a big season, and they're a big flight risk as sophomores.

last year we lost a kid who had well over a point per game and the guy who started literally every game in G since God Knows When. I also noticed that, just as it happens every year, other schools have lost some big talent. I'm guessing that Minnesota would have liked to have Middelstadt next year, for example.

next year, nah, I'm sticking to it.

I was more worried coming into this season with the departure of Petersen and Bjork. I posted last Spring after the two announced they were not returning that I thought the Irish would still be good, and that the 20 guys who were coming back would use the notion that the departure of those two guys would mean the team would take a step back as motivation.

Hopefully the players returning in the Autumn of 2018 will have similar motivation and prove it isn't about the seniors, or Olgilvie and Gilbert. The program is good enough to win.

Barring the truly unpredictable, like a slew of injuries, this team will contend for the conference titles again, and will be good enough to make the NCAAs. And if we make it, we're gonna win it.