of an NHL team. He's a risk right now. But that also colors it from his standpoint. GAA and SP are cool stats but NHL scouts look at other issues - size, athleticism, and mental attributes. You place way too much stock in the numbers - unless he drops to a .900 SP or GAA above 2.5, his numbers won't be "catastrophic" to his aspirations. I think he has a very good chance of elevating his NHL aspirations with another solid season. Right now he's an NCAA one-year wonder. And this all assumes that ND is going to crater next year.

Scouts definitely look at other attributes, but the things you mentioned aren't likely to change much with another season at ND. Those assessments can be made by scouts now (and who knows what they think...this discussion may be moot if scouts have already decided he doesn't have what it takes).

The argument for another season at ND is to see if he can reproduce/improve his success over a larger body of work. Since it's not likely scouts are going to watch most of his games, that assessment usually comes from the stats (although the scouts are going to be using fancier stats than I have access to...but all I can comment on is save % and GAA).

I'm also an Avs fan. Their goalie situation is a mess at every level. The goalie of the future is just finishing his ELC and has steadily regressed (and was awful in his 3 NHL games). They have a couple guys in minors that do not project to the NHL. There are probably 2 (maybe 3) spots in AHL/ECHL that are open, but they don't currently have much in their system to fill those spots. That's the kind of situation where I think a team might take a chance on Cale (and the fans would fully support the team and GM if they went this route).

Goalie prospecting/development is such a crapshoot that I suspect that there are probably some more teams out there with minor league spots open this summer that need to be filled (although I haven't looked in depth though other teams' depth charts).

I don't know what scouts think of him. He's definitely a risk (but so is literally every goalie prospect). At a minimum, I think he's invited to NHL camps this summer to see how he compares to other prospects (and based off that he may get an offer if he impresses...and if he gets an offer I think he'll take it). So for me, I won't be confident he's coming back to ND unless I don't hear anything about him a few weeks after those camps are done.

I'm clearly in the glass half empty camp. It's good to hear your counterpoint because the more I talked to Avs fans the more they convinced me he wouldn't be back at ND next year. ;)

- who appear to have generally been in hiding the past few years - probably are vastly unqualified to evaluate this and are reacting with "sports fan" analysis. While you're correct that all G present "risk", some do more than others. Guys who have been id'd early, have the attributes, and are thoroughly scouted for the draft and end up being high picks, are clearly less of a risk than a kid who was largely unnoticed, didn't play for a year, and has one good college season under his belt. I have no clue what a current scouting evaluation of Cale is but I'll wager a nice sum that it's not at the level of Oettinger, Woll, Hart, Samsonov, Sorokin, etc etc, or of Gillies, Demko, etc. So I think that another solid season couldn't hurt his stock and I really don't see everything in front of him blowing up at ND next year. When you refer to an ELC we're talking about a 2-way. Unless Cale thinks he's going to make an NHL roster and stick, he'd be signing essentially for AHL money. That's not hitting the lottery. Another good year at ND could add to the chances of making a team out of camp and at least moves him up on the ELC age level. We'll see. For the record, I'm not addressing this from the standpoint of wanting him back. I do, but if he leaves I think we'll manage in G.