Agree he needs more development...

Agree he needs more development, but that can happen at ND or in the ECHL/AHL. And in the ECHL/AHL he gets to focus on hockey full-time and play 70+ games without any additional academic burden.

I'm sure his experience at Waterloo is fresh in his mind. He got his offer from ND with a 1.85 GAA and .937 save % in 28 games. The following year (with player turnover and a younger roster) his numbers dipped to 2.47 GAA and 0.906 save %. He's facing a similar situation at ND next year with Gilbert/Gross/Wade leaving. The possibility that his numbers would drop next year is a big risk and would like be catastrophic for his professional aspirations (although he'd still end up with an ND degree as a decent consolation prize).

If he signs an ELC this year, the risk will be on the NHL team. He'll have 2 years to prove himself worthy (and can go back to get his degree at a later date if things don't work out).

His success this past season probably maximizes his options/leverage for an ELC. He likely has interest from a couple teams which gives him options to choose the best situation for him (bonus $$, coaches, depth charts).

If he returns to ND, then the risk ends up on Cale without much upside. Best case scenario is he wins the Richter again, but that probably doesn't add much to improve the leverage he has negotiating an ELC since length and $$ are capped for the ELC. Worst case scenario is he (and the young blue line) struggle, his numbers drop (like they did at Waterloo), and he loses his chance at an ELC (and as an older prospect at 23 years old it's less likely he'd be able to earn one after that even with remaining eligibility at ND).

It's pretty much a certainty that he didn't have a full scholarship last year. So maybe Jackson could find a way to get him a full ride next year to try and entice him back. After taxes, it'd probably be about a wash when comparing what he'd earn from an ELC compared to the expense of a year at ND.

All of this really depends on what NHL scouts think of him. His limited success at ND is definitely a red flag, so teams may have him come to developmental camps this summer as a tryout to earn an ELC.

As a fan, I want him back at ND. But if he has an opportunity for an ELC, I have a hard time seeing him pass it up if he has aspirations for a professional career.