We will improve, but I expect it to be heavily skewed and possibly the average might not be much better. Why?

1) There really have only been 2 freshman since MM started at ND that have hit the ground instantly running that I can recall: Sky and Jewel. All otehrs had a 10+ game ramp-up period at minimum. Thus, Emma most likely will take 10 or more games to start shooting closer to her potential percentage as she transitions to college game speed

2) Miles is going to be out probably the first 10 games and ramping up for 10 more. Meaning we really will only have the full Miles the final 10 regular season games and Hannah + Miles for 20/30 games

3) Hannah will likely be the PG for the first 10-15 games. She has a shot of being the next like Sky and Jewell for ND -- but the odds are more that she will struggle some / at minimum not be as good as Miles would have been, so the NI drive and dish offense will struggle until HH or OM are in there at full tilt (along with Citron not being forced to plug part of that hole)


I suspect the back half of the season to blow away the first half in terms of what our offense looks like because OM, SC and HH will all be on the floor at the same time or 2/3 will be at all times -- plus all the other stars we have. That will be the first time in the NI era where our motionless offense will still be highly effective because we have elite shooters, tall forwards that can't be ignored inside, and 2-3 players capable of driving past anyone (which is 1 more than even elite teams typically have the bodies to consistently stop).

that Emma won't start hitting her three point percentages until she has played at least ten games. Why not, three reasons: She played against elite players in tournaments with her AAU team. (Fast paced and highly competitive.) Secondly, she will be playing a mix of really good teams and some considerably lesser teams prior to the ACC. Thirdly, she will not be the focus point like she was in high school.

The second statement that I would bring up, is none of us know when Liv will be both available and in game shape. (That certainly will have a major impact on how we perform and when that happens.)

All the rest is very solid.

December. Hence me saying she will be out 10 or so games and ramping up after that. As for your points on Emma, that is a carbon copy of Miles, Citron, Arike, Marina, Young, etc -- all players that had to ramp up and did not instantly play at their ultimate elite level.

I remain convinced that no one outside the program has any idea when Olivia is going to be available. She may not play at all this season, and that affects everything.

December. (I wonder how many others weren't as well?).

As to Emma, you may well be right, we'll have to wait and see.

So Hannah and Anna will share running the show until Liv returns. That may will pay dividends in the long run. I think they will do a very good job handling it, but Olivia Miles is special and the team will miss her.

So as you stated the team will not be whole until mid season.

I will be absolutely shocked if NI plays her even one second before she thinks she is at least 99.9% recovered. There really is no need to - because the end of the season is what matters, not what happens November and December.

Also, December 1 is much different than December 31. 12/1 is in effect the start of the season.

after she is full recovered?

the outpouring of support for her was heart warming. I just can't figure out why the secrecy is needed or helpful.

However, if that's Liv's decision we have to respect it. At this point we all know it's fairly serious. (Anyone watching the actual injury knew that.)

the right to keep it private. It's likely different in the pro sports because they are employees and probably signed something that allows the leagues to disclose based on their cryptic rules on injury status.

If the trainers or coaches know what the injury is they are not legally obligated to keep it a secret. If Olivia prefers not to share it with the rest of the world then it is a courtesy to her that everyone else is maintaining silence.

• Click here for link at https://ndnation.com/boards/showpost.php?b=mcgraw;pid=116155

largest drug safety consulting company in the world and having all top 50 pharmaceutical companies as my customers and hosting over 200 pharmaceutical company's safety database systems.

My company is (EDIT: was not -- I sold the company) not a healthcare provider nor are pharmaceutical companies considered to be healthcare porviders, yet we all had to adhere to HIPPA regulations (along with a pile of other ones -- especially when you do the union of every single law worldwide where an approved or phase 3 clinical product exists). It was an explicit part of every contract we entered into, part of the incredibly detailed and complex security audits we had to pass before a company could legally contract with us, etc.

Above said, your point still stands because if it is true players have signed a waiver upon accepting a scholarship at ND, then it is moot. The doctors employed by ND that are working with any athlete would legally be considered healthcare providers BTW - hence unable to disclose data to anyone sans a waiver allowing them to do it (so a coach could not get the info from the team doctor sans that waiver).

EDIT2: Also, those trainers and likely all coaches are going to likely be legally required to sign confidentiality agreements related to this matter. That CDA is what allows the doctor to then share information with them -- and for that matter is part of what lets the trainers diagnose injuries, etc. It then knits it all together all the way back to the HCP that is bound by HIPPA. It in effect is what trickled down to the pharmaceutical companies who then had to pass it down to every single vendor they interact with that can in any way access patient data (which the pharmaceutical companies get from the HCPs for every adverse event that is reported).

Yes, any business or organization that handles or transmits patient information upstream from the patient falls under HIPAA and by HHS definition is a "covered entity". I worked within the pharmaceutical and medical device industry for 30 years and oversaw several clinical trials for new devices and I, and our companies, were required to adhere to robust confidentiality provision in handling patient data.

Too many people misunderstand what HIPAA is and they assume that it applies to everyone. There are some other grey areas around college trainers depending on whether they are employed by the university athletic department or by the university hospital to which athletes are referred to for care so a thorough and detailed waiver is probably advisable for all concerned.

• Click here for link at https://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Administrative-

She started every game of her career at Fordham and played many games against P5 opponents. Ultimately, she won't reach the levels that those other players will but I'm certain Niele will use her to grease the skids while others are getting used to it.

As you state, it turns out she was not a nicety but a necessity. Hannah will get a lot of playing time and will excel at times, but having a proven player at the point is a big asset.

I just hope we see an Olivia Miles at 100% earlier, rather than later in the season. (January?)

there might be some other kinks in the "Split Season" theory:
1) What about Lindsay Schrader, Lindsay Allen, Jacqueline Batteast, Ruth Riley?
2) MPG posted that he saw Olivia briefly on May 15. She was without crutches and with no visible limp. (Dara still had crutches.) Granted, it was just a glance and he was not nearby. So, we are still guessing, but December sounds pessimistic at this point.
3) Hannah’s ESPN rank is 5, Jewel’s rank was 4, Skyler's rank was 3. Lindsay Allen, who definitely "hit the ground instantly running" was ranked 25.

It's a nice theory for consideration, however. We shall see.

and scored 29 pts on 13-18 shooting and had 9 rebounds in 19 minutes played. She started 138 of 139 games played (I think she didn't start on senior night) and lead the country in FG% as a freshman. I would call that hitting the ground running.

I have a list of phrases that repeatedly show up on McGraw's Bench. Number 1, I'm pretty sure is, "Bigs take longer to adjust to the college game."

Thanks for the exploding post.

And, yes, I looked her up when irncty posted Emma's numbers. Bri, senior year, had an eFG% of 63.2! (Of course, that was her FG% also.) I don't know if that was her best. Maybe freshman year.

I agree that many frontcourt players take time to adjust to the college game. My totally unsupported opinion is that they often develop some bad habits by dominating high school games against lesser, smaller players and need to adjust to playing against peers day in and day out. The more recent phenomenon of AAU tournaments and international exposure at younger ages no doubtedly helps some develop faster by increasing the level of competition forcing them to up their game.

from being on the short list of best players ever at ND. Even with them she was pretty darn good.

Career Records:
Rebounds: 1st with 1,048 (Riley 2nd)
Blocked Shots: 1st with 372 (Riley 2nd)
Points Scored: 6th with 2,017 (Riley 5th)
Field Goal Percentage: 2nd with 62.4% (Riley 1st at 63.2%)

Yes, it seemed like her first couple of seasons were limited by a bum shoulder and, of course, the ACL kept her out an entire season but her PER each season (according to basketballreference.com) was 33.5, 33.2, 31.6, and 33.3. Not only was she outstanding but she was amazingly consistent.

we are wrong for saying that, just that it is repeated often …sometimes as if we have never heard it before. But it is also nice to keep in mind that there are exceptions. Nothing is written, except, maybe, death and taxes.

A general rule is that freshmen tend to tire out later in the season and hit what is referred to as "the Freshman Wall." Unfortunately for us, Breanna Stewart didn't seem to get the memo regarding that one.

the mythical "Freshman Wall" with Sonia Citron. She got better later in the season. That one may be more of a "wives' tale" than a "general rule". We need more data!

It's specifically meant to be around Tournament time, since High School seasons don't last nearly that long. However, things might have changed now with more AAU teams, etc. resulting in players being used to playing for long stretches of time.

Sonia Citron did better at tournament time. Up until the tournament games, she scored 11.8 ppg, 43.3 fg%, 15.37 Efficiency rating, and 48.3 efg%—all excellent! During the tournament games she scored 12.8 ppg, 56.1 fg%, 16.25 Efficiency rating, and 58.5 efg%. (When I say tournament games, I mean ACC and NCAA.)

I agree with you that because of the longer season and that the games are against tougher opponents, you would think that the "Freshman Wall" would be real. For those two, at least, it was not. As I say, we need more data.

Maybe you are on to something with all the summer playing time in high school. The fact that some freshmen do even better against late season, tournament-quality opponents, probably says more to the character of the player.

Luckily I had just dug some stuff out of my storage unit, including a box with some of my old media guides. I checked out the one that had her freshman year stats.

She didn't start until the 7th game of the season. In the first 6 games, her minute totals were:

Butler: 11 minutes, 6 points, 3 rebounds
Duke: 18 minutes, 7 points, 5 rebounds (Fouled out)
UC SB: 15 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds
UCLA: 10 minutes, 0 points, 3 rebounds
Rutgers: 5 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound
UConn: 4 minutes , 2 points, 1 rebound

BTW, ND went 2-4 in those 6 games, with the two wins coming against Butler and UCLA, but that kind of start isn't surprising when you graduate 4 starters from the previous year's team.

And even when she did start, in her first two starts she played fewer minutes (just barely) than Julie Henderson.

Like a lot of bigs, she took a little while to really get her footing.

I think it's interesting you mention Riley, though, because her classmate Kelly Siemon actually did start in those first 6 games, although for some reason she didn't start in the first game that Riley started in (no, Riley didn't replace her in the lineup. Hutchinson did for some reason).

the start. Jackie Batteast played major and effective minutes from the start. Lindsay Schrader needed time to adjust. Ruth Riley, like most bigs, had adjustments to make to the level of competition in college.

was guessing about the others from articles and how many games they started in their freshman year (and records they set). It seems like btd's point that it is unusual not to have a 10 game adjustment period is valid, but not certain.

Many years ago (like back in the Holtz era) I noticed what would often happen on ND boards regarding attitudes of some of the fervent, but not necessarily knowledgeable, fans to Offensive Linemen who were coming in, usually with a lot of accolades:

1. When they arrive at ND: "Great! An AA Lineman! Can't wait to see how he does on the field."
2. After their freshman year, when he was most likely redshirted: "Hey, he was supposed to be great. Why didn't he play?"
3. After their sophomore year, when he'd most likely get garbage time, if he played at all. "He's not playing much. I thought he was supposed to be great."
4. After his junior year, when he was playing a bunch, possibly even starting: "Well, he's starting to show some stuff after not playing earlier in his career."
5. After his senior year and all through his 5th year: "He's definitely All American material!"

And the player would get into the NFL and play for a few years there.

Obviously this isn't what would happen with every OL recruit, but it happened often enough to seem to make a pattern.

information. It adds context to our understanding of what Emma Risch and Hannah Hidalgo will bring to the team for the new season. It also adds to the case for giving them significant playing time.

this coming season, especially Emma and Hannah. Along with Cass, in my mind, they are extraordinarily gifted players, unique in their own way. To me, this is the most exciting group I can remember, including the 2017-18 and 2018-19 teams. Win or lose, I think it will be thrilling!

will have quickness, shooters, rebounders, passers and athleticism in abundance.

It will be a lot of fun to play on this team and certainly for the fans to watch.

As you state thrilling!

Unless there are different formulas out there, Hudl calculates eFG% as follows: (2pt FGs made + (1.5*3pt FGs made))/FG attempts. In Emma’s case, (63+(1.5*116))/383 = 61.88%.

To put it in perspective, in a cursory look, no one except Taylor Roberton of Oklahoma of the players and teams I track had a higher eFG% last season in college (who played 50% or more of the time).

Taylor Roberton broke the NCAA record for number of 3's made. (She was in her 5th year.)

Usually, the high eFG% shooters are posts and/or forwards. For example, Aliyah Boston shot 56.2% eFG%, Aliyah Edwards, 59%. For a guard, Caitlin Clark shot 57.1%.

Surprisingly, our own Kylee Watson shot 60.0% eFG% last year.
So, for a guard like Emma, it's unheard of! Congrats to Emma! Can hardly wait.

shots to be equally as effective for our offense. Someone at that level is way beyond what Kayo and I have been calling a truly elite outside shooter that a defense cannot ever ignore. What that means is the moment she steps on the floor defenses will be forced to put one of their best defenders within arm's length of her at all times. That dramatically alters what we can do offensively with 2 of HH/OM/SC on the floor with her plus the others. Teams cannot pack the paint to take away the drive and dish that our offense is based heavily on.

Two very tall forwards plus Maddy and Prosper sized guards / small forwards also means no team can have their center/top forward cheat upward to cut off the diving lanes like we saw the instant OM went down to injury last season - forcing Citron to the point and eliminating our only remaining outside shooter largely. If they do, we simply will dump it off to those forwards behind that defender and score easy bucket after easy bucket.

Our offense is extremely dependent on having at least one lethal outside shooter on the floor at all times. With the MM offense it wasn't as dependent because we had dramatically more ball movement to get defenses out of position.

EDIT: This is why by the final 10 games of next year when Emma, Hannah and Miles are all full tilt, our offense may very well be as good as it has been since 2018.

this team running the floor next year? (Layups should help the epg, more than a little bit.).

Anna and Emma have the potential to smash the three point shooting deficiencies of last season.

Steals lead to layups too and Hannah is outrageously good at that.

versus pinned down by needing to be our PG and/or pinned to the outside to represent our only shooter and it gets better. Her next level down shooting percentage suddenly becomes elite in a different way because of the other two plus an elite PG also being on the floor with her.

If teams want to stop her from being able to drive, they have to pull someone away from our PG to do that most likely. Giving us that instead - and then Citron as a 2nd outside shooter is way above average compared to what other teams (even elite ones) have as a second outside shooter.

Elite teams tend to have 1 great forward for sure and 2 great guards for sure. You quickly get down to 2-3 teams at most that can then come up with a 4th one to match up well -- and that's what ND will be forcing everyone to do when we throw 3 of HH/SC/ER/OM out front and then 1 of MW/CP and 1 of Marshall and Watson.

Compare that to last year (and since 2019) when elite teams easily could match our top 3 and we didn't really have that next elite player that they couldn't match -- instead we had more normal players to match or we had an imbalance / missing piece entirely that wiped out what else we had.

options with this group.

I am excited to see: How Anna does with this team and this level. (I expect her to surprise many with how good she is.)

How Emma and Hannah perform as freshman. (Not a bit worried.)

How Kylee and Nat do in terms of matching Maya's numbers and Kylee and Lauren's numbers. (I predict they will exceed both of the comparisons.)

What area (s) will Cassan and KK improve on? (Shooting I hope.)

Will we press? How many players will be in the rotation? (We will be ten deep in quality players, once Liv is back.)

Will Maddy and Soni be a bit more selfish? (I hope so.)

I am not at all sure where Becky and Jenna fit in, so whatever they contribute will be an unknown plus for the team.

Thanks for the expert statistical analysis.
(Makes what I see on the court and translate into personnel feel sounder)

These revelations kind of fell into my lap.

I completely agree that basketball is nothing more than what takes place on the court (and in between games for the players and coaches). If we had perfect recall of every play for every player in every game, we could just instantly access all that information. Unfortunately (or not) we can't, so we have to make up all these categories and short cuts to remember, all of this secondary crap, so we don't just keep selective memories that may send us way off base.

As you imply, it's not true basketball, it's just stats, but it really, really helps …especially for coaches. Plus, for many of us, it provides insights, learning, and fun!

But, as you say, the real stuff is what you hear and see on the court.