Walker and MV should be a lot different players

Walker and MV should be a lot different players
by btd (2020-02-23 14:13:49)

In reply to: Next year's starting lineup posted by NDLAW88

Next season. MV is playing injured right now. She also has no lower body strength this season. Assuming she doesn’t get hurt before next season, that will all be behind her. She will have her mobility back and have strength to hold her ground for rebounds (she gets easily pushed under the basket now).

Walker played this season after sitting out two years. The inconsistent play this year is a direct result of that combined with being in a new system with new teammates. She has shown a lot of flashes of being the star she was entering college. Next year she should be at top form day one. That makes her the starter and others rotating in - not the other way around. She’s by far the most dynamic player we have on this team.

I think we need to be 4 around 1 much of the time and then against some of the biggest teams attempt to have Maddie in at the same time as sam and MV to try and be a little bigger.

With 3 guards plus Sam I expect to see Gilbert, Anaya and Walker as the starters and Alli swapping in for any in foul trouble or not shooting well. Basically, it’s play the 3 that are scoring the best that day.

Maddie will likely sub for Sam and MV - with Sam playing more forward when that happens for MV. Nat is 90% likely sitting out a year. The other forward will sub some but likely not be the first option off the bench for MV.

PG will be Gilbert / Campbell / Hayes / Peebles. Likely 2 of those 4 in at the same time often and playing the same roles Jackie and Marina did - to some extent both running the point at times.

In general, the 5 returning starters are doing to be the starters again. We will rotate at least 3 players in off the bench routinely and a 4th more than normal. The biggest difference will be we have subs for rest, fouls and off nights next year. When someone is having a 2-16 night we have another player to try closer to the 2-8 point v no choice but to pray for better luck - like this year.

Abby is going to be the odd one out much of the time because she isn’t a scorer. We will see her at times purely for defense - trying to stop a hot player or at the ends of halves when the other team has the final shot / possibly to prevent a 3rd foul on another player. Most games she will get 4-8 minutes is my guess. MM needs to get ya back into the 75-80 point range so she isn’t putting anyone in the game that can’t score other than for special situations.

I think people vastly underestimate the gains the existing starting five will make from
This year to next year. The freshman will not have to carry the team and MM will use them off the bench for at least the first 10-15 games. Maybe one will become close to a starter by end of season.

Finally - I still expect a forward transfer.

Imo, this is the best, coherent analysis

I have read. Totally agree on Abby, some people forget you can only
put 5 players on the court at one time. My only real disagreement is
taking a 5th yr forward.

It doesn't have to be a 5th year forward. Grad transfers

often have 2 years left. They graduate after 3 years and have only played 2 seasons.

Then there are some regular transfers like Shep that are granted the right to play immediately.

I think you are vastly underrating Abby. Only 4-8 minutes?

She played in 38 games, averaging 14.4 minutes/game during her freshman year. You think she'll suffer that vast decline in minutes? I don't.

I do. Why?

Because her freshman year she was the only viable sub we had to put in a game. She didn't need to have any offense at all given the other players we had. She was there for defensive minutes and do "do no harm" when others were in foul trouble.

We don't have those other players now and she is part of a 5 player pool of subs -- 4 of which on paper have dramatically better scoring potential than she does and one plays a different position.

At the guard position, Hayes is a PG -- that is a unique path for those minutes. At the other guard positions you have Sam and Maddie alternating at the stretch position and then Gilbert, Anaya, Walker and Campbell that are in the same pool as Abby. She is the odd one out of that pool of players except for the unique situations where a defensive only player is required (ends of quarters, to limit a very specific player, etc). It amounts to 4-8 minutes per game IMO.

The only way she is going to get more than that is if the rest of that pool turns out to be exceptionally bad -- which isn't going to happen given 3 of them are returning players we know a lot about. AC may not pan out quickly -- which would be a different issue -- which would add 4-6 minutes onto the pile for Abby most likely. If AH is incapable of playing PG at all, then AC will slide to that role more and open a door for more minutes for Abby.

Agree

But it will vary more than any other a la HH. One game 20-25, 5 the next. More dependent on opposition & her teammates play in a particular game more than herself.

We aren't too far apart

You say 20 minutes one game, 4 the next. An average of 12. I say an average of 4-8 with a similar theory that it may be 0-4 and 8-12 other games.

A lot depends on if other players actually can score and not be a net negative from the same pool she's in. The rest depends on game to game foul situation on those other players and whether the other team as a very specific guard that is lighting us up and needs to be handled 1:1 like Brey does with Rex. She will play more those games because of her unique defensive skills and if she can hold an 18 pt scorer down to 9 and throw their offense out of whack as a result it is likely enough to offset her offensive issues.

Another wildcard is if she somehow becomes a 10 ppg player -- but I think that's unlikely. In effect if she shows that she is the same offensive player as the others.

agree *

Nor do I. *