assuming Trump is the nominee, what states that he lost
by jt (2024-01-24 15:33:12)
Cannot Reply Return to Political

in 20 most likely to flip back to him?

None. He will win 15 states, if that.
by Domer84  (2024-01-30 22:34:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I doubt that he will get 40% of the popular vote.

His only chance is if Biden is the nominee. I fully expect that, once Trump wraps up the nomination, Biden will withdraw for "health" reasons and the Dems will put up someone else at the convention. I suspect Newsome but I saw someone touting Michelle Obama. Then Trump is the ranting old man in the race.

If the Democrats could come up with a less left-wing candidate than those two (and I can't think of one offhand since Manchin left the party), it would be a slam dunk. That person would pull suburban women and independents. I suspect that a percentage of Republicans will simply refuse to hold their noses and vote for Trump a third time. Thus, he doesn't get 40% of the vote. And he probably drags all the down ballot candidates to defeat so a good day for the Democrats.

If you're betting on any of this, I'll take all the bets
by wearendhockey  (2024-01-31 15:44:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I'll even give you odds on all but how many states Trump wins.

Trump will win every state he won in 2020, with the possible exception of North Carolina. He's going to get the same 46-47% of the popular vote he got in 2016 and 2020. Mondale got 40% of the popular vote in 1984. The only major party candidate to receive fewer than 40% of the popular vote in the last 50 years was George H.W. Bush, and that required Ross Perot to snatch 20% of the popular vote for himself. And unless he's dead or incapacitated in some fashion, Democrats are going to be running Joe Biden. No major party is willing to painted as a party in disarray by undergoing a candidate switch at a convention.

Seriously, what has happened in the last 4 years that would lead anyone to believe Trump is going to receive significantly less of the vote now than he did before? How many other shoes need to drop? His voters are his voters barring anything but their own demise.

Seat of the pants judgment: all of them save MI.
by sorin69  (2024-01-24 20:48:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Return of the Man Who Would Be King, I'm afraid.
I will make you a gentleman’s bet that
by sprack  (2024-01-25 00:43:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

There is no way he’ll win Pennsylvania.
The 2020 margin was just 80k in a state with almost 7
by sorin69  (2024-01-25 08:37:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

million votes cast. Democratic victory in the senate and governor 's race were helped by comically inept gop candidates. I think the gibe that outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh it might as well be Alabama has merit. Older, whiter, stuck in an economy too dependent on extraction industry...on my last drive up the Allegheny River valley, it looked depressed as hell. Trump's turf.

Mind you it's a bet I'd love to lose. I'm glass half empty person.

State polls
by KARLHUNGUS  (2024-01-24 16:54:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

This might be a good place to start.
That's disconcerting data. *
by Giggity_Giggity  (2024-01-24 17:04:41)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Some very large undecided percentages *
by sprack  (2024-01-24 17:04:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

For sure.
by KARLHUNGUS  (2024-01-25 09:47:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Georgia, for example. I should have noted that it's still VERY early by historical standards. Most people are not thinking about the election right now...other than to wish it isn't going to be a rematch. It's going to be a long 9-10 months.

How can you decide with these relative unknowns? *
by mintirish  (2024-01-24 22:04:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

There's also the other direction
by sprack  (2024-01-24 15:55:45)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Which states that he won could he lose this time?

I'll go with North Carolina.

One interesting thing if you you compare 2016 to 2020 state by state, his percentages narrowed in almost all states, including the rock solid red ones. There were exceptions, most notably Florida.

GA, AZ, WI, MI, PA - needs 3 of 5 (or just GA & PA) *
by gregmorrissey  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

didn't he lose Nevada as well? *
by jt  (2024-01-25 01:46:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Yes, but then my 3 of 5 line doesn't work
by gregmorrissey  (2024-01-25 07:57:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Yes, Biden won Nevada by 2.4% which is less than he won Michigan (3%). But, with only 6 votes, they aren't going to be the required key piece in very many combinations.

2020 % Margins (Vote Margins)
Georgia 0.20% (11,779) --- 16 EC votes
Arizona 0.30% (10,457) --- 11 EC votes
Wisconsin 0.70% (20,682) --- 10 EC votes
Pennsylvania 1.20% (81,660) --- 19 EC votes
Nevada 2.40% (33,596) --- 6 EC votes
Michigan 3.00% (154,188) --- 15 EC votes

As it stands today, Trump is at 235 and Biden is at 226 (270 needed to win). Trump won North Carolina by 1.4% (74,483 votes) so technically it's in play, but if Trump loses North Carolina then he will lose everywhere else that matters too. Likewise, if Biden loses in Minnesota.


Trump winning combinations - needs 35 votes
With PA
GA, PA = 35
PA and any other 2 >= 35

Without PA
GA, MI + Any
GA, AZ, WI
MI, AZ, WI

thanks *
by jt  (2024-01-25 12:49:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Very helpful tabulation. So much of the current polarization
by sorin69  (2024-01-25 09:14:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

is frustrating. Another presidential election in which the same f-ing half dozen states will decide it all. Well said about NC and MN. I don't see MN voting for Trump, even though rural alienation is dismayingly severe. 2016 showing for Trump deceived the GOP into thinking it was winnable. The predominance of the Twin Cities plus burbs is too much, also a totally dysfunctional state GOP party that hasn't won a statewide election since 2006. As always, the contrast with Wisconsin is interesting.

Hopefully someone reminds the state of Michigan
by DakotaDomer  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Who was POTUS when they started succeeding at football for the first time in 30-70 years.

The Pistons offset all of this. *
by EricCartman  (2024-01-25 13:00:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

They’ll be 3-5 by election time and surly *
by goirish89  (2024-01-24 21:44:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I think he has a shot at AZ, GA, MI, WI and PA as it stands
by Irpa  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

today.

sorry, meant to put this on political *
by jt  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

This ought to be good.
by ocnd  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

This post has landed outside the protective wall of the PBR
And I'm betting it gets moved in 4 . . 3 . . 2 . . 1 . . *
by sprack  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

And there it is *
by sprack  (2024-01-24 15:50:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Are we talking lost lost or "lost" :) *
by Donger  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Georgia? *
by ufl  (2024-01-24 15:33:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

They’ll finally “find” the votes he was looking for? *
by IrishintheD  (2024-01-24 18:26:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Yeah. They will be Rs/Independents that Biden lost.
by NDBass  (2024-01-24 22:06:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

It won't take much to flip and Biden seems interested in fucking around and finding out.