Notre Dame overcame an 18-point deficit to claim an 81-78 overtime victory over North Carolina State in Raleigh on Sunday evening. If you were one of many Fighting Irish fans who wrote them off when the Wolfpack extended its lead to 40-22 late in the first half, you didn’t know your ND basketball history.

Statsheet.com is a treasure trove of great college basketball statistics that includes every coach’s record in blowout games (defined as games decided by more than 19 points). Since becoming Notre Dame’s head coach, Mike Brey’s record in blowout games is 92-7.

The winning side of that record is, for the most part, irrelevant for a major conference program because they play so many teams from low Division 1 conferences in November and December. It’s the paucity of losses that is noteworthy.

In his 15th year at Notre Dame, Brey’s teams have lost by 20 or more points approximately once every two seasons. They have lost two blowout games in the same season twice – in 2007-08 with lopsided losses at Marquette and in the NCAA tournament to Washington State and in 2011-12 with non-conference blowouts at the hands of Missouri and Gonzaga before the team regrouped for an improbable 9-game Big East winning streak that led to a 13-5 conference record.

Notre Dame basketball teams punch back when they get down. We have seen it over the years, even in some ND’s most ignominious losses. Down 20 points to Winthrop with 13:15 left to play in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, the Irish cut the lead to 3 points with 3:58 remaining before succumbing to the Eagles 74-64; and down by 23 points to Florida State with 13:00 left in the 2011 Tournament, ND shaved 12 points off of the lead before running out of gas.

The difference in the 2014-15 Irish is that they do more than get themselves back into ball games when they fall behind. They are finishing the comebacks.

• From 7 points down with 10:00 left vs Michigan State to a 1-point overtime victory
• From 11 points down in the first half vs Georgia Tech to a 7-point double overtime victory
• From 10 points down in the first half at Georgia Tech to 3-point victory
• From 9 points down with 15:00 left vs Miami to a 5-point victory

So if you didn’t expect Notre Dame to at least make it a game Sunday night, I have one question for you – Why?

Measuring Against the Best

You’re still wondering… Is 7 blowouts in 15 years good, bad, or par for the course? Let’s see how often some of the best in college basketball have done at major conference programs.

• Tom Izzo – 19 blowout losses in 20 years
• Bo Ryan – 10 blowout losses in 16 years
• Roy Williams – 13 blowout losses in 27 years
• Jim Boeheim – 22 blowout losses in 35 years (data before 1980-81 not available)
• Billy Donovan – 12 blowout losses in 19 years
• Rick Pitino – 16 blowout losses in 24 years
• Bill Self – 7 blowout losses in 15 years
• Mike Krzyzewski – 19 blowout losses in 35 years

An interesting note on Krzyzewski’s 19 losses… 9 of them came in his first 4 seasons leaving 10 for the following 31 seasons. That’s mildly interesting, but what I find truly interesting is that his Duke teams did not suffer a blowout loss in 10 straight seasons from 1998-99 through 2007-08. 10 years. Nice run.

1,000 (clap, clap) and 309

What’s at stake in Wednesday night’s matchup between Duke and Notre Dame in South Bend? Not much. Just the ACC championship.

More accurately, the winner will stay in contention while the loser will have a very difficult path to first place.

Virginia is leading the league with a 7-0 record followed by Notre Dame and North Carolina at 7-1. Duke, Miami, and Syracuse follow at 4-2.

Falling to 4-3 with five teams ahead of them would make a second half run to the championship difficult for the Blue Devils; and falling 2 losses behind Virginia, effectively 3 games behind given its earlier loss to the Cavaliers, would make a Notre Dame championship equally difficult. It’s too early to consider the championship impossible for the loser, but I’m willing to go with “not bloody likely.”

Duke has what gives Notre Dame trouble – quality big men, most notably 6’11”, 270 pound freshman center Jahlil Okafor. Okafor is Duke’s leading scorer (18.9) and rebounder (9.4) playing just a shade below 30 minutes per game.

The good news for the Irish is that Okafor still does some freshman things. He fouls a lot, doesn’t defend the post very well, and averages in excess of 2 turnovers per game. Duke has taken to playing zone to limit the impact of his defensive shortcomings and keep his considerable offensive skills in the game. If the Irish shoot well, facing a zone will be playing into their hands; and if Duke leaves the zone, Zach Auguste should have a big game playing screen-roll with Jerian Grant.

Duke’s final defensive alternative is to do what others have done against Notre Dame’s four around one lineup.

“Everyone in this league has adjusted to us so far. They’ve all downshifted and played smaller,” Brey said after the North Carolina State game. “Eventually they adjust to us.”

Krzyzewski has seen the other teams’ results matching Notre Dame’s small lineup – They lost. He knows his best bet is to own the boards, especially the offensive boards, and he has the guys who can do it. Okafor has 66 offensive rebounds in 16 games, and 6’9” Amile Jefferson has 50. It will be bad news for the Irish if they pad their averages.

I like Notre Dame in a close game because the Irish shoot so well at home. Duke will be hard pressed to keep the score in the 70s, let alone the 60s; and they really need to keep the Irish in the 60s to win.

Road Warriors

As the ACC schedule started, I thought the formula for a successful season was a 7-2 record at home and a 5-4 record on the road. Time to revise upward.

7-2 still seems about right for the home record, but anything less than 8-1 will be disappointing if the Irish can manage a victory over Duke Wednesday night. It’s the road record that needs revision.

Sunday’s win in Raleigh improved ND’s conference road record to 4-0. Games at Pittsburgh, Duke, Clemson, Boston College, and Louisville remain. The ACC road is difficult no matter the opponent as Virginia (close call) and Pitt (loss) were reminded when they visited Virginia Tech over the last few days, but I will be unhappy with any more than two road losses the rest of the way.

What’s your baseline?