A surgeon walked into a hospital waiting room to meet with his patient’s family. “I have good news,” said the doctor. “All but one of your father’s organs are healthy enough to be transplanted into other patients.”
Similarly, all but one of the Notre Dame basketball teams we saw throughout the 2015-16 season is good enough to have postseason success.
The mid-season team that attacked the basket, got to the free throw line, and got defensive stops at key junctures in games is poised for success. The team that played fast in the regular season finale vs North Carolina State and in the second half vs Duke in the ACC Tournament has a chance to do very well. However, the team that used the first 15 seconds of the shot clock getting its offense started, lost rebounding battles by double digits, and couldn’t make an outside shot will have a short stay in Brooklyn.
Unfortunately for Notre Dame fans, that third team is the one that has taken the court five of the last seven games.
Good News, Bad News
The Irish will be favored to beat Michigan when the teams meet Friday night, and they should be.
It will be good news for the Fighting Irish if Zach Auguste and Bonzie Colson combine to grab 25 rebounds. The rest of the lineup can get ND to 40 rebounds, but those two have to lead the way.
It will be bad news for the Fighting Irish if Michigan gets 35 rebounds. The Wolverines averaged 31.4 rebounds in Big Ten games and allowed 32.5.
It will be good news for the Fighting Irish if a non-starter scores in double digits. Everyone in the starting lineup has a double digit scoring average. The four players who got into more than nine conference games averaged a cumulative 9.7 points.
It will be bad news for the Fighting Irish if any Michigan player scores 20 points. UM’s leading scorer, Derrick Walton, has a 13.3 point scoring average.
It will be good news for the Fighting Irish if they make 40% of their three point shots. They only made 36% of their long distance attempts in ACC games.
It will be bad news for the Fighting Irish if Michigan makes 40% of its three point shots. The Wolverines made 37% of their long distance attempts in Big Ten games.
It will be good news for the Fighting Irish if they get to the free throw line 25 times. The team’s best wins found the players at the line a lot because they attacked the basket.
It will be bad news for the Fighting Irish if Michigan gets to the line 20 times. UM averaged 16 trips to the line in Big Ten games.
It will be good news for the Fighting Irish if they get off to a good start. Slow starts have plagued the Irish all season. They have overcome quite a few of them; but several bad starts have ended as ugly defeats. The easiest way to advance to Round 2 is to play well from the opening tip. Watch how they move the ball in the first five possessions.
It will be bad news for the Fighting Irish if Michigan forces more than 12 turnovers. Michigan’s opponents only averaged 11 turnovers, so ND’s sloppiness would be a more likely cause of a high turnover count than Michigan’s defense.
Thursday Chaos
Brackets be damned, those of us who enjoy chaos thought Day one of the tournament was great fun. There were three upsets victories by teams seeded 11th or 12th, and several other higher seeds struggled before advancing.
I don’t have the data to support this, but my decades of tournament watching tell me that a crazy Thursday tends to be followed by a chalk Friday. I expect only the mildest upsets, wins by #9 and #10 seeds.
The Long Flight to New York
When the Irish flew to the tournament on Wednesday, the flight took twice as much time as planned.
One would expect a flight from South Bend to New York City to follow a route eastward over Ohio and Pennsylvania, but that isn’t what happens. Every flight that leaves South Bend International Airport seems to be drawn northward almost to Lake Superior.
Notre Dame fans know why.