Notre Dame’s season is on the line on Saturday as the Fighting Irish (7-1) host top ranked Miami. Marcus Freeman’s squad is currently slotted in 11^th place by the College Football Playoff Committee. A loss to the Hurricanes will all but eliminate them from playoff consideration for the second consecutive year.

Obviously, the Committee has doubled down on last year’s assertion that Notre Dame lacks a signature win. They afforded SEC and Big-10 conference members priority once again due to their perceived schedule strength. Notre Dame can quash that narrative this weekend but it will not be easy. Miami boasts an unstoppable offense and an opportunistic defense while the Irish have struggled of late. This game will be nationally televised on NBC beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Hurricane Coach Mario Cristobal is 43-19 in his fifth season in Coral Gables. His team has outscored opponents by 48-18 on average. Admittedly, Miami’s schedule has not been overly difficult. It is no secret that both teams have anticipated this meeting for a variety of reasons. Cristobal acknowledged the long standing animosity between these programs but refused to stoke those embers on Monday.

“I think we’re really focused on doing the things that help you actually win football games,” Cristobal said. “There’s no value in those (incendiary) words. There’s no value in some things we talked about the other day in predictions, forecasts, narratives. There’s not one of those things. Not one of the people talking about those things can block anybody, throw a ball, catch a ball, chase down, and make a tackle.”

Coach Freeman did not dance around the rivalry question when it was raised in his weekly press conference. “You understand and make sure the players understand the history and tradition of the rivalry because it makes you appreciate the opportunity you have now. That’s the most important thing…It’s important to understand the history — the games, wins, and losses. It’s important.”

On the injury front, Notre Dame is in rough shape on defense. Key linemen Francis Brewu and Jason Onye will not be available, nor will linebacker Drayk Bowen. In the secondary, cornerback DJ McKinney remains out and safety Brauntae Johnson is not ready to return. On a positive note, linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will play. It is unclear whether his injured thumb will affect his ability to get off blocks and make tackles.

Earlier this week, Miami had not reported any new injuries to its starters. The Canes had previously lost talented cornerback OJ Frederique in their season opener. On Wednesday, however, star receiver Malachi Toney reportedly injured his ankle in practice. Recent updates now indicate that Toney will miss this week’s game.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. MIAMI’S DEFENSE

Offensive Coordinator Mike Denbrock introduced new wrinkles against Navy that were encouraging and effective. There were also fewer checks at the line of scrimmage and a quicker tempo. He adjusted to counter Navy’s run blitzes and used the middle of the field in the passing game. Typically, the Irish confess in postgame remarks, “We did not see those things on film from our opponent.” It would be refreshing to see Notre Dame on the front end of the surprises this week.

Miami plays a 4-2-5 defense. End Marquise Lightfoot and tackle Justin Scott lead a powerful front four. This group has recorded twenty-four sacks in eight games. Opponents have rushed for a mere 2.4 yards per carry. Lightfoot is an exceptional edge player and his battles with Will Black and Guerby Lambert will be revealing.

Mohamed Toure and Chase Smith are the two starters at linebacker. Both are strong in run defense. Toure is the Canes’ leading tackler and hits like a freight train. Ball carriers rarely gain any yards after contact once he arrives on the scene. Toure suffered knee injuries earlier in his career and is currently playing in his eighth college season. Neither Toure nor Smith is as effective against the pass.

Freshman strong safety JJ Dunnigan has emerged as a current and future star. He is Miami’s second leading tackler and has an interception return for a touchdown. Dunnigan is also an effective blitzer, as is nickel back Omar Thornton. The Hurricanes are aggressive and unafraid to bring pressure from anywhere on the field.

Denbrock and quarterback CJ Carr understand they must run the ball effectively to keep this Miami defense honest. An up tempo approach would also work to force them into a reactive mode. Carr may also have to run the ball more than usual. He may feel pressure in the pocket at the edges from Lightfoot and Damon Wilson. If Carr sees Toure bearing down on him, he had better slide immediately.

On the positive side, the Hurricane secondary is vulnerable if Carr has time to pass. They have surrendered significant yardage and points in recent weeks. Poor tackling has been an ongoing issue. They have recorded only four interceptions against middling and lower tier opposition. Carr would do well to utilize multiple targets including tight ends and backs. Ethan O’Connor is Miami’s best cover corner and may be assigned to Jordan Faison.

MIAMI’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Darian Mensah leads the Hurricane attack. His passing statistics are other worldly. Through eight games, Mensah has completed 81% of his throws with 25 touchdowns and only one interception. His accuracy is astounding, even on those rare occasions when he is pressured. In fact, Mensah has a perfect 158.3 NFL passer rating against the blitz this season.

Toney has caught 73 of Mensah’s 188 completions to date. The next most productive receivers are Cooper Barkate, Daylyn Upshaw, and tight end Elija Lofton. They have a total of 70 receptions among them. Toney has accumulated 1027 yards and 13 touchdowns to 871 yards and eight scores for this trio. It is fair to say that Toney’s absence leaves a gaping hole for the Canes. Freshman Vance Spafford is listed as Toney’s primary backup. He entered the program this season as a highly rated recruit but has just nine catches.

Barkate is the next most likely target for Mensah as Miami adjusts its plan on the fly. He began his college career at Harvard before transferring to Duke to play with Mensah. Both joined the Canes this season in their final year of eligibility. It is reasonable to speculate that Notre Dame will assign cornerback Leonard Moore to cover Barkate.

Miami’s running game features a strong one-two punch. Mark Fletcher and Javian Mallory split the workload equally. Mallory is the more explosive playmaker while Fletcher picks up the tough yards on third down. Mensah is not used extensively as a runner but can scramble when the situation requires it.

The offensive line is solid but not as dynamic as last year’s model. Four new starters have replaced departed veterans. Right tackle Matthew McCoy is the only returning starter. He played left guard last season. Freshman Ben Congdon has taken over that spot and is learning the ropes. Pass protection is the area where Notre Dame will attack Congdon with shifts and stunts.

While stopping the run is critical, Notre Dame must generate an effective pass rush. Specifically, ends Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young must win more frequently. Last season, the Irish could not apply pressure and chose to sit back in coverage to take away explosive plays. Carson Beck proceeded to pick them apart. This year, Mensah is a better passer. He will find targets to hit regardless of whether Toney is playing.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Spencer Porath has done a solid job for Notre Dame this season. He has missed one field goal attempt and one extra point. Miami’s counterpart Jake Weinberg has been nearly flawless. He missed one field goal of greater than 50 yards and is perfect on extra points.

Both teams feature Australian punters to get them out of trouble. Jasper Scaife has a 44-yard average for Notre Dame and Dylan Joyce is at 45 yards for Miami. Toney was the primary punt returner for the Canes. The job will fall to freshman wide receiver Somourian Wingo, who also returns kickoffs.

Both squads have strong return and coverage teams. Any big play in this area by either team could have a significant impact on the outcome.

SUMMARY

Miami’s coaches undoubtedly had to adjust the offensive game plan after Toney was injured on Wednesday. This is not a simple endeavor. Much of the Hurricane offense is enabled by Toney’s presence. Also, the team will spend a full day traveling. Regardless, the Canes will rally around their teammate and prepare other capable options for battle. It is less traumatic to lose one player than it is for the Irish to replace five defenders.

This will be a physical contest where dominance in the trenches will determine the winner. Last season, Miami won many of those individual battles. Notre Dame is improved along both fronts this season and will feed off the home crowd. This sounds good in theory but does not guarantee anything.

Both starting quarterbacks have enjoyed excellent protection in the pocket this season. Carr has been sacked only twice and has thrown just one interception. Miami will focus on invading his comfort zone. The Canes undoubtedly noted Carr’s tendency to stare down his primary receiver. That may cost him this week.

Mensah gets the ball out quickly and is accurate with his short throws. Notre Dame must challenge his receivers on these quick routes rather than lay back in a soft coverage scheme.

The importance of coaching is also paramount in a game of this magnitude. Freeman will have his troops fired up but will they be prepared? Can Chris Ash and Mike Denbrock emerge from the funk that plagued them during October?

Here are a few additional questions that will shed light on the outcome:

•             Will the depleted Irish defensive line stop Miami’s running game?

•             Can Carr exhibit poise and accuracy or will the moment be too big for him?

•             Which team will exert the most pressure on the quarterback?

•             Will Notre Dame’s secondary play more aggressive coverage?

•             Can the Irish create running lanes against Miami’s talented defensive line?

•             Will the Irish special teams win the battle of field position?

•             Which team will have the fewest penalties and turnovers?

•             Can Mensah find other playmakers without Toney in the lineup?

PREDICTION

The importance of this game for Freeman and the Irish cannot be overstated. Two consecutive years of missing the playoffs would be disastrous. Jobs are on the line as far as the assistant coaches and coordinators are concerned. Over fifty blue chip recruits will be in attendance. Miami will survive and play another day if they lose on the road without their superstar. That said, they would love to put a fork in Notre Dame’s playoff ambitions. Every emotion related to this rivalry will be on display, and may result in costly penalties.

What remains of Notre Dame’s crippled defense will focus on slowing down the Hurricane scoring machine in Toney’s absence. This can be accomplished with a game plan that is neither timid nor passive. Offensively, Denbrock must overcome his own tendencies and predictability. If he does, points will be available for the taking. I would prefer to attend this game if both teams were at full strength. Unfortunately, that is not the case. There are many elements to this contest as discussed above, but one overrides the others. Notre Dame is in a must win situation, and they will find a way to get the job done.

NOTRE DAME 31  MIAMI 24

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