Notre Dame travels to the University of North Carolina on Saturday to battle the Tar Heels, but the Irish may be without the services of a key player – quarterback Brandon Wimbush. A cloak of mystery and disinformation has surrounded Wimbush’s foot injury and status for this game, but prudence suggests that he sit against the 1-4 Tar Heels and take advantage of an upcoming bye week before returning to action on October 21 against USC. The ABC television network will broadcast the game nationally beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

Leadership of the Irish offense would fall to Ian Book, who has performed competently in mop-up duties to date. Book does not possess the arm strength or the dynamic running skills of Wimbush, but he makes quick decisions, throws the ball accurately, and plays within his abilities. Notre Dame’s top three running backs are also operating at less than 100%, but all should be available for action on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Larry Fedora’s North Carolina team has wilted under an avalanche of its own injuries, where eight starters were unable to go in last week’s loss to Georgia Tech. Fedora did not make excuses, but rather pointed to missed tackles on defense and poor execution by his offense as the reasons for his team’s latest defeat.

A potential distraction for the Tar Heels looms on Friday as the NCAA will release its final report, including penalties, after a six-year investigation into academic fraud among North Carolina student athletes. The penalties may be severe and will certainly have an impact on the current Tar Heel players and coaches. In the short term, however, the scandal could provide an unusual level of motivation for the embattled hosts in this game. UPDATE: Apparently this announcement has been further delayed, although the specter of sanctions remains a cloud over the UNC campus.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NORTH CAROLINA’S DEFENSE

The Irish will not be afraid to let Book throw the ball on Saturday, but a more conservative approach is reasonable given the Tar Heels have not been stellar against the run. Opponents have recorded 221 yards per game and an even five yards per carry.

North Carolina’s eight man defensive line rotation features only one senior, end Dajuan Drennon, who plays behind talented sophomore Malik Carney. This tandem accounts for the majority of the quarterback pressures, but these rushers will have to battle the strong left side of the Irish front. Injuries have also taken a toll at linebacker. Jonathan Smith, a sophomore, was thrust into the middle last month when junior starter Andre Smith (no relation) went down for the year. He is flanked by Cole Holcomb, the team’s leading tackler, and Cayson Collins, who has a pair of sacks to his credit.

Despite what is sure to be a run-heavy approach, Notre Dame’s passing game needs work and Book should get around 20 attempts. Wide receivers Chase Claypool, Chris Finke and Miles Boykin have shown improvement recently and Kevin Stepherson is trying to get reacclimated after a suspension to start the season. Although Book has slightly above average ability to scramble, he is not likely to run the ball by design given the status of Wimbush. Realistically, the Irish will be in trouble if Book goes down.

The Tar Heel secondary has avoided the injury bug to date and is led by a pair of seniors, cornerback M.J. Stewart and safety Donnie Miles. Stewart has two sacks and five pass break-ups to his credit, and is the best athlete in the group. Still, the tall Irish receivers should have an advantage downfield if Book can deliver the ball.

NORTH CAROLINA’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

When star quarterback Mitch Trubisky moved on to the NFL in April, Fedora brought in graduate transfer Brandon Harris from LSU to take over the position. Harris has yet to separate himself from junior Chazz Surratt, who has taken more than half the snaps to date and has put up much better numbers. Surratt is a better running threat and has fewer interceptions in his 128 throws than Harris has in just 42.

The problem with the passing game has been at wide receiver, where injuries have decimated the lineup. Only Jordan Cunningham remains from the trio that was expected to start back in August, and he is an incoming transfer from Vanderbilt. Freshman Roscoe Johnson and sophomore deep threat Anthony Ratliff-Williams have taken advantage of the opportunity for early playing time, but the team has been unable to establish a rhythm in Fedora’s spread offense. Tight end Brandon Fritts remains a potential weapon, particularly in short range and the red zone.

At running back, incumbent Elijah Hood elected to leave early for the NFL draft and is now an Oakland raider. The workload in Chapel Hill has fallen to a pair of relatively inexperienced backs, Jordon Brown and Michael Carter. The pair has combined for 500 yards in five games. Both are similar in their relatively small size and ability. Brown is the better pass receiver.

Notre Dame should be successful against this offense if they win the battle up front. The Tar Heels’ best lineman is left tackle Bentley Spain. The rest are mainly veterans that include Florida transfer Cam Dillard at center, but Spain is the only player with star power. The overall offense has talent and can put points on the board, but injuries, penalties and poor execution, particularly on third down, have held them back.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame kicker Justin Yoon took a slight step back last week when he missed one of two field goals, but that by itself is not yet cause for alarm. Punter Tyler Newsome has not recently booted the ball as far as he did earlier this season, but there have been no returns against the coverage unit during the past two games. Conversely, the Irish return game remains anemic, which makes me wonder why Brian Kelly and Brian Polian were caught on kiss-cam last week.

For the Tar Heels, Freeman Jones has hit just 50% of his field goal attempts, the longest of which is 39 yards. Punter Tom Sheldon has a strong leg and boasts an average over 45 yards with very little return yardage. North Carolina’s return teams are respectable, with Ratliff-Williams handling kicks and Stewart fielding punts. Each group has a statistical edge over the Irish.

SUMMARY

The Tar Heels are strongest up front on defense, but the back seven is a bit shaky in terms of physicality and tackling ability. The offense lacks a go to receiver on third down and has an unfavorable time of possession metric, so a ball control strategy by Notre Dame is likely to be successful. North Carolina will take its shots downfield and go after Nick Watkins, whose shaky performance last week was the only flaw in a strong Irish defensive performance.

At various points during the day, a few four-yard runs could turn into 40-yard romps for the Irish if Josh Adams and Dexter Williams are fully healthy. The main objective should be to get out to an early lead and control the game so that Book does not become burdened with the task of winning it through the air.

Here’s a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will Notre Dame’s running backs be healthy enough to shred the Tar Heel defense?

Can Surrat or Harris convert on third down?

Will the Carolina front four be able to pressure Book into mistakes?

Which offense will achieve the greatest success in the red zone?

Can the Irish secondary tighten up and prevent long completions?

Will Wimbush suffer a similar fate (job loss) as Malik Zaire and Wally Pipp?

Can Brian Kelly 2.0 remain calm and collected with a first time starter at quarterback?

PREDICTION

Assuming Wimbush is sidelined as expected, Notre Dame will have to put in the better part of a full day’s work to subdue the Tar Heels. The hosts have nothing to lose at this point in a difficult season and will view this game as an opportunity to salvage some respect and give the media something to talk about besides the NCAA sanctions that are almost assuredly on the horizon. Book should be competent as the field general, but the North Carolina defense won’t need a dedicated spy on him and will challenge the Irish by loading up against the run.

NOTRE DAME 30 NORTH CAROLINA 17