Undefeated Notre Dame travels to Provo, Utah this week for a heavyweight battle against the BYU Cougars. The Fighting Irish are currently ranked second and have continued to improve throughout the season. BYU is the number eight team in the polls and are unbeaten in five contests. This showdown between physical and balanced squads will determine whether the Irish leave no doubt regarding their playoff aspirations.  Cougar fans have circled this game on the schedule since the home and home series was announced last December. Saturday’s contest is being broadcast nationally by ABC starting at 7:30 pm Eastern time.

BYU Head Coach Kalani Sitake took over at his alma mater in 2016. He has a 89-45 record with the Cougars during that span. This year’s team is led by sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier. The 6’2” 230-pound bruiser has carried the offense with accurate passing and fearless running. Defensively, BYU is stout against the run, having allowed only 80 rush yards per game. Their aggressive secondary also ranks near the top in pass defense.

Coach Marcus Freeman understands the challenge of defending Bachmeier and BYU’s dynamic offense. “We’ve played against teams that have designed QB runs”, he said. “But, man, he’s the real deal, right? And he’s big. He’ll try to run you over big, but he also can throw. That’s what makes him good. That’s why he was the player of the year last year as a freshman in the Big 12. So we’ve got to have a good plan.”

BYU’s star tailback LJ Martin suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago and remains out of action. Right tackle Andrew Gentry went down last month and is lost for the season. Additionally, the Cougars have several players listed as questionable for the game due to previous injuries. Rover Isaiah Glasker is the most prominent among them. His backup, Jake Clifton, is a capable replacement if Glasker is out or limited.

Notre Dame received some good news this week regarding a few injured players. Cornerback Leonard Moore and linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa are available after missing last week’s game against Stanford. Defensive tackle Jason Onye, who has not played since the season opener, was upgraded from out to available. Safety Brauntae Johnson remains out for at least the remainder of this month.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. BYU’S DEFENSE

Notre Dame’s rushing attack has been coming on like a freight train in recent weeks. BYU presents a much tougher test with its 3-3-5 defensive alignment. The three down linemen are capable and experienced. The Cougars are two or three deep at each position. End Bodie Schoonover and tackle Keana Tanuvasa are the most disruptive players. Outside linebacker Tausili Akana moves forward on passing downs to rush from the edge. He leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss.

Senior middle linebacker Cade Uluave is the Cougars’ leading tackler. The rover position featuring Glasker and Clifton creates havoc and fills the run gaps extremely well. This group is the main reason it is difficult to run outside against the Cougars. Notre Dame’s offensive line must execute its blocks inside to open lanes for the three Irish tailbacks. If they go outside, it must be with misdirection to counter fast pursuit by BYU’s linebackers and safeties. This high stakes physical battle in the trenches will have a significant impact on the outcome.

Irish quarterback CJ Carr will face the best secondary he has seen thus far this season. Cornerbacks Therrian Alexander and Evan Johnson are confident and aggressive ball hawks. Nickel back Cannon DeVries is an explosive player but can be a liability in coverage. Free safety Faletau Satuala is a 6’4” enforcer on the back end. Carr must involve the tight ends, backs, and slot receivers in the passing game to keep BYU honest. He was fortunate to have potential pick sixes dropped last week and at North Carolina. Any poor reads or telegraphed throws this week could end in disaster.

Pass protection by the Irish has been exemplary to date and will be critical on Saturday. The Cougars have been able to apply pressure with disguised blitzing, so something must give. Akana is typically the fourth pass rusher but BYU often sends at least one other linebacker or rover. This will create a guessing game with Carr and his blockers as to their protection schemes.

BYU’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Bachmeier has become a 66% passer in his second season at the helm. He has several good options and uses them well. His favorite is freshman slot receiver Legend Glasker, who is the younger cousin of linebacker Isaiah Glasker. Legend averages 20 yards per reception and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

Bachmeier also has a pair of excellent tight ends to target in the short zones. They are Roger Saleapaga and Walker Lyons, a transfer from USC. Saleapaga is an outstanding athlete who is also a threat on deeper routes. The outside receivers are tall and capable. Kyler Kasper is a 6’6” transfer from Oregon while JoJo Phillips is 6’5”. This pair will be difficult for the Irish cornerbacks to cover. If Leonard Moore is deployed to neutralize Legend Glasker, Bachmeier will still have viable alternatives.

With Martin sidelined, the Cougar running game is significantly weakened. Bachmeier has stepped in to fill the void. He has essentially become Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills in this offense. Bachmeier often attempts to play hero ball in critical situations. This could work if the Irish are not disciplined in their pursuit.

BYU has a veteran offensive line that is stout at center and guard. Paki Finau, a transfer from Washington, is the left tackle. He has performed well to date. Gentry’s absence at right tackle leaves the position to a pair of freshmen, Siosiau Latu-Finau and Bott Mulitalo. This should create a matchup advantage for Boubacar Traore or Bryce Young for the Irish.

Notre Dame’s challenge is to defend a variety of receivers while containing Bachmeier in the pocket. They will need to apply controlled pressure to force hurried passes while preventing long scrambles downfield. That is much easier said than done.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame has experienced a few ups and downs on special teams this season. In a game of this significance, the effort and intensity should be running at maximum. The Irish showed a fake punt in September and have come close to blocking a punt in recent weeks. Jordan Faison has excelled at returning punts as well. Ideally, this group can break through in one of these areas to get on the scoreboard.

Kicker Spencer Porath has been reliable but not perfect in the past six games. On Saturday, it may be necessary for him to convert every opportunity into points. Punter Jasper Scaife also needs to be consistent and avoid the occasional misfire.

BYU’s specialists have been solid to date.  Kicker Matthias Dunn has converted four of five field goals and all 20 extra points. His longest is 49 yards. Punter Fuller Shurtz has averaged over 45 yards per boot. All kicks should travel well this week in the altitude at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

DeVries is the primary Cougar return man with a 100-yard touchdown to his credit. He and reserve wideout Tiger Bachmeier share the punt return duties where both are productive. In short, BYU is above average in all aspects of special teams. Notre Dame must perform at its best to gain an advantage.

SUMMARY

Each defense relies on speed to turn plays inside. Each unit is successful at forcing long third down situations and getting off the field. Both teams pursue at full throttle and therefore could be vulnerable to counters, reverses, or trick plays. Each secondary is capable of sticky man coverage and is rarely beaten on the deep ball. The outcome will come down to the wars in the trenches and which skill position players make winning plays. Each team is disciplined and protects the football well.

As for the offensive side of the ball, it will be a battle of quarterbacks. Bachmeier brings decent passing skills that are enhanced by his running ability. Carr is a better pure passer and a master at reading defenses. Both defensive coaching staffs will attempt to devise plans to confuse or bait the signal callers into poor decisions.

Third and fourth down conversions will also play a significant role on Saturday. BYU is successful on 54% of its third down tries. They have attempted only four conversions on fourth down and have failed each time. Notre Dame’s offense stands at 40% on both third and fourth downs. If the Irish allow Bachmeier and the Cougars to continue their success on third down, they will lose.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Can the Irish get off to a fast start and take the crowd out of the game?
• Which team will generate the most productive ground game?
• Can the Irish pass rushers harass and contain Bachmeier?
• Will BYU’s aggressive corners shut down Faison, Greathouse, and Gilbert?
• Which special teams will make a significant contribution?
• Can the Irish secondary cover BYU’s tall receivers and tight ends over the middle?
• Will Notre Dame’s offensive line be able to pick up BYU’s blitzes?
• Can either team force a turnover to alter the course of the game?
• Will Notre Dame’s depth counter the effects of the altitude in Provo?

PREDICTION

My primary worry is Notre Dame will get off to a slow start in this hostile environment. If that happens, the Irish could struggle to play from behind. This is the biggest game for BYU and Provo since a 1990 win over a top-ranked Miami team. Cougar fans will have all day to guzzle root beer and canoodle to get fired up on Saturday.

My secondary concern is that the Irish will not stay within themselves. Trying too hard often leads to mistakes and 15-yard penalties. They have been disciplined to date but it is human nature to reach for something extra in big games. Stay cool and let BYU make those mistakes.

The Irish have better overall speed and power, although Bachmeier has enough weapons to keep the Cougars competitive. A strong opening period by the visitors could result in an easier than expected win, though.

Both teams face their best opponent of the season by far. It is difficult to assess their comparative results to date because the wins came with relative ease. One team will assert itself on the line of scrimmage to run the ball effectively and take control. I expect Notre Dame to be that team.

NOTRE DAME 30  BYU 20

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