Notre Dame and Florida State, two undefeated teams ranked in the top five, square off on Saturday night in Tallahassee with a spot in this year’s college football playoff possibly at stake. The Seminoles are the defending national champions, and are led by the talented but controversial quarterback Jameis Winston. Despite the legal troubles, rumors and accusations swirling around Winston that are reaching a crescendo this week, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will start for the hosts. ABC will provide national television coverage beginning at 8:00 PM Eastern time.

Florida State is coached by Jimbo Fisher, who has won 51 of 61 games in four plus seasons after being elevated to the top spot in 2010. He joined the program as Offensive Coordinator in 2007. Fisher has staunchly defended Winston throughout the various criminal, university and NCAA investigations surrounding his quarterback, which is either admirable and disturbing depending on one’s point of view. His goal is obviously to mitigate the level of distractions facing his team, but it’s doubtful that the media explosion in the past week will impact what happens on the field.

The Seminoles have not been quite as statistically dominant this season as they were in 2013 when they cruised to the title, but they have managed to overcome all challenges. The Irish have also won when not at their best, but the recent spate of turnovers, sloppy tackling and a regression in special teams performance gives rise to concern about their ability to pull off an upset in this contest. The history between these programs dates back to 1981, and they played a memorable classic in 1993 as the top two teams in the country. Notre Dame won that matchup by 31-24 against another Seminole Heisman winner, Charlie Ward.

Although the connection between these schools doesn’t fall under the classic definition of a rivalry on the level of ND-USC or FSU-Florida, the players and coaches know each other well. “They’re a great program,” FSU senior left tackle Cameron Erving said. “They have great history, great tradition. A lot like us.” Well, okay, but I’m not so sure Notre Dame is comfortable with such comparisons.

Both teams are relatively healthy at this midway point in the season. Florida State center Austin Barron has missed the last couple of games and will be replaced by Ryan Hoefeld, while linebacker Matthew Thomas was reinstated by Fisher to play in this game after serving a suspension since September 5 for a violation of team rules. Irish defensive back Cody Riggs will start despite suffering an ankle injury in last week’s win over North Carolina.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. FLORIDA STATE’S DEFENSE

The Irish running game made proverbial strides last week when Coach Brian Kelly scrapped his three man rotation and stuck with Tarean Folston, who responded with an outstanding second half. Improvement by the embattled offensive line was also evident, and the balanced attack was a major factor in pulling out the win. Kelly will need similar diversification this week to keep Florida State’s pass rushers away from Everett Golson, who has appeared increasingly jittery in the pocket of late and has committed a few very costly turnovers.

The Seminoles lost several starters from last season’s elite defense and have only one senior starter in end Desmond Hollin, but the underclassmen possess significant talent. Linemen Eddie Goldman and Derrick Mitchell, Jr. can make life difficult for the interior of Notre Dame’s offensive line, and inside linebackers Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup run down ball carriers from sideline to sideline. The return of Thomas, a former five star recruit, adds depth and talent to the mix. The outside linebackers represent an imposing hybrid of size and athletic ability. Mario Edwards, DeMarcus Walker and Lorenzo Featherston are exceptional athletes and will be difficult to block. If this front seven has a weakness, it is the tendency for its players to freelance rather than maintain discipline.

The Florida State secondary has juniors Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams at the corner, sophomores Jalen Ramsey and Tyler Hunter at safety, and Nate Andrews at the nickel slot. This group is aggressive and can be beaten for big plays on occasion, but Golson must have time to throw. The Irish quarterback has routinely held the ball too long on deep throws when he’s not running from pressure, and the Seminole defenders have sufficient closing speed to negate any potential completions if the ball is not delivered right on time.

Notre Dame must play an error free game and maintain balance in its attack to keep pace with the relentless Seminole offense. The Irish need to manage time of possession to limit Winston’s opportunities, and absolutely refrain from gift-wrapping cheap scores with turnovers. This does not mean Golson should be conservative in his passing or afraid to run for a first down if the situation demands it, but he must consistently make good decisions.

FLORIDA STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Aside from his physical size and dual threat capability, Winston’s strengths are his accuracy, patience and knack for finding an open receiver. He does not throw the ball deep downfield very frequently, but rather spreads it around to numerous talented backs and receivers who can slip through the initial tackle and convert short passes into long gains. Rashad Greene is the leading receiver and one of the best in the country. He is capable of coming down with the ball even in tight coverage, and is the team’s primary outside threat. When Winston simply wants a first down, tight end Nick O’Leary is often the target. He is one of those players that always seems to be open at a critical juncture.

A powerful offensive line comprised of five massive seniors enables the Seminole attack to dominate opponents. Guard Tre Thomas is the best of this group and a probable first team All-American. As mentioned above, however, Barron will not play and backup center Hoefeld is only a redshirt freshman. Still, this group protects Winston even better than the Tallahassee police. If Notre Dame intends to blitz, it will be a high risk proposition. Generating pressure with four rushers would be the best scenario for the Irish, but that is going to be difficult.

Florida State has its own trio of running backs that regularly see action. Senior Karlos Williams is the starter at 225 pounds, and he shares the workload with sophomore Mario Pender and lightning-fast freshman Dalvin Cook. Pender may not be at full strength this week, so Cook may receive more touches. Winston can also run the ball effectively, but that rarely becomes necessary. Although the Seminoles tilt toward the pass in their play selection, they are not afraid to run it in the red zone where they’ve had very good success.

The Irish must try to exploit Hoefeld with Jarron Jones and Sheldon Day up the middle, and use its outside rushers to keep Winston from rolling outside the pocket and completing a high percentage of his throws. Tight coverage is needed throughout the secondary, but more importantly Notre Dame cannot miss the initial tackle when a receiver catches the ball. These escapes happened frequently against North Carolina, but the Irish intensity level should be much greater in this game. Despite the best laid plans, the Seminoles are too talented to be held completely in check, so it’s important for the Irish to make them earn their way downfield and hit them hard every step of the way.

SPECIAL TEAMS

As much as Notre Dame fans appreciate kicker Kyle Brindza, Florida State’s Roberto Aguayo is even better. Aguayo has not missed a field goal this season and is reliable from more than 50 yards. Unlike Brindza, Aguayo does not assume double duty as the team’s punter, but that is not a very demanding job. Cason Beatty handles that chore with average skill on the rare occasions when his number is called.

The Seminole coverage teams are excellent. They allow just 18 yards per return when Aguayo does not boot the ball through the end zone, and only five of Beatty’s punts have been returned this season for minimal yardage. In the return game, Greene fields the punts and Kermit Whitfield handles the majority of the kickoffs. Each is a threat to go the distance. Notre Dame’s return game has fallen off in recent weeks, but the coverage units have been solid. The Irish cannot allow any significant breakdowns in the area that tilt momentum toward Florida State.

SUMMARY

The Irish need to win the battle of turnovers, commit fewer penalties, and play well enough on special teams to realize no worse than a stalemate in terms of field position. On defense, they must play disciplined assignment football and tackle crisply to minimize yards after catch. Defensive Coordinator Brian VanGorder will be challenged to find ways to pressure Winston and penetrate Florida State’s imposing front line without exposing his defense to big plays. This is a tall order, but that is the task facing Notre Dame.

The Seminoles are aware that Golson has been affected by pressure in the pocket and careless with the football in recent weeks, and they undoubtedly smell blood in the water. The quick 14 point deficit against North Carolina cannot be overcome against this opponent in its home stadium, so Notre Dame needs to be crisp from the start. Defensively, the Irish must compete on every play, as Florida State is more methodical than explosive in its ability to put points on the board.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will the Irish offensive line be able to protect Golson?

Which team will be more effective running the ball?

Will the Irish defense avoid missed tackles that extend drives?

Which team will win the turnover battle?

Can Golson match the accuracy and efficiency of Winston?

Will a big play on special teams impact the outcome?

Will Notre Dame gain a measure of respect at the national level regardless of the outcome?

PREDICTION

The Irish should be able to hang with the Seminoles as long as they don’t succumb to the jitters and get off to a poor start. Golson was one of the few Notre Dame players that performed well in the championship game against Alabama, so it won’t be surprising to see him rise to this occasion. The matchup should be entertaining and competitive throughout, but Florida State’s offensive line and skill position talent will ultimately wear down the Irish.

FLORIDA STATE 38 NOTRE DAME 27