Notre Dame (3-1) hosts unbeaten Louisville (3-0) of the Atlantic Coast Conference on Saturday. The Cardinals are coming off a home victory against Georgia Tech after two wins against lower division teams. Louisville rode big plays in all three phases in taming the Yellowjackets. The Fighting Irish are keeping their playoff hopes alive but have no margin for error. Coach Marcus Freeman’s squad is still smarting from an upset loss on September 7 to Northern Illinois. Also, last week’s mistake-filled takedown of Miami (Ohio) was anything but satisfying. Saturday’s game is available for streaming on Peacock beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

Head Coach Jeff Brohm is in his second season at his alma mater after resurrecting Purdue to Big-10 respectability from 2017-2022. His Cardinals were 10-4 last season after a 10-1 start that included a 33-20 drubbing of Notre Dame. Brohm used transfer quarterback Jack Plummer last season to lead his team. This year, he brought in Tyler Shough from Texas Tech for that purpose. Shough is in his seventh college season and has performed well at Louisville to date.

Shough’s Irish counterpart, Riley Leonard, remains a work in progress as a passer. Leonard has made incremental improvement over the past month but still routinely misfires on easy throws. Freeman responded to a question regarding his quarterback earlier this week.

“As we meet and we talk he understands what the position that he holds entails, the expectations, and he’s doing a great job of handling those things. Continue to have joy with the people that sacrifice in that building with you. That’s what I told him. Don’t lose the joy [because of] the noise or outside things that could affect some other people.”

Brohm reported a few injuries for Louisville this week. Starting wideout Jadon Thompson suffered a season-ending knee injury against Georgia Tech. Rotational tailback Marcus Turner and starting cornerback Quincy Riley were also dinged up and are questionable for the Irish.

Notre Dame also has its own outsized share of attrition, aside from the three starters lost against Purdue. Defensively, end Josh Burnham and tackle Gabe Rubio remain out. Cornerback Christian Gray has a shoulder injury and his status is currently unknown. Another corner, Jaden Mickey, announced that he will sit out the rest of the season. He intends to transfer in the spring with two years of eligibility after earning his degree.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. LOUISVILLE’S DEFENSE

Louisville’s defensive line is led by end Ashton Gillotte, who was a force last year against Notre Dame. Gillotte is relieved by Ramon Puryear, who is a quality player in his own right.  The interior consists of nose tackle Dezmond Tell and Jared Dawson, who already has three sacks. Brohm dipped into the portal to stock the other end position with Tramel Logan from Baylor and Myles Jernigan from Cal. The Cardinal front held the Irish to 44 yards rushing last season, and this year’s group is every bit as talented. Georgia Tech, a run-oriented team, managed only 98 yards rushing against them.

Sophomore guard Sam Pendleton and freshman tackle Anthonie Knapp struggled against Miami  and will face a more formidable challenge on Saturday. If the Irish cannot run the ball effectively it may be a long afternoon. Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price were almost forgotten last week in favor of keepers by Leonard. Brohm is aware of Leonard’s running ability and pledged to have a plan in place to contain it.

Louisville’s linebackers in its 4-3 alignment are Stanquan Clark in the middle, the versatile TJ Quinn, and Antonio Watts. Clark and Quinn are tied for the team lead in tackles. In the secondary, Riley’s absence at cornerback would be costly if he cannot answer the bell this week. The other side is manned by Corey Thornton and Tahveon Nicholson, who share time. The safeties are quality veterans in Tamarion McDonald, an import from the Tennessee Vols, and M.J. Griffin. The overall defensive unit is sound but not impenetrable.

Brohm will try to force the Irish to throw and attempt plays outside of Leonard’s comfort zone. There will be considerable pressure on Coordinator Mike Denbrock to break tendencies that early opponents have noted. The Irish have been telegraphing plays with formations, personnel groupings, and other tells. Leonard must also throw the ball more accurately so as not to waste plays and go three and out. Finally, the line must execute in the run game and hold up in pass protection.

LOUISVILLE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Louisville has averaged 47 points and just over 500 yards per game. They have not committed a single turnover in their three games. Their offensive performance against Georgia Tech was statistically far less impressive, though. They managed just 57 yards on the ground and 17 points by the offense. The Cards’ 31-point total resulted from a defensive score when Tech fumbled in its own end zone and a blocked field goal attempt returned for a touchdown. Louisville’s two offensive scores were the result of long pass plays.

Shough has been a 68% passer this year under Brohm’s tutelage. He has completed passes of greater than 20 yards to seven different receivers. The best of the group is Ja’Corey Brooks, who leads the team with 17 catches and averages 99 yards per game. Thompson’s loss is a blow but the Cardinals have plenty of depth. Chris Bell is a deep threat that the Irish secondary must watch closely. Brohm is known for bringing new wrinkles and trick plays to big games.

Junior Donald Chaney leads a young group of tailbacks. He has been slowed by an ankle injury but should start this week. Two freshmen, Keyjuan Brown and Isaac Brown, will rotate in. Guard Renato Brown anchors a revamped offensive line. Left tackle Monroe Mills (6’7” 315) transferred in with Shough from Texas Tech. Right tackle Jon Mendoza (6’9” 310) was previously at Yale.

The Cardinals will attempt to establish the run in order to create opportunities for big plays in the passing game. Notre Dame has given up the majority of opponents’ rushing yards early in games and tightened up in the second half. They will require a better start this week. The matchup between the Louisville receivers and the Irish secondary is compelling. With Mickey gone and Gray nursing a shoulder injury, the visitors may have an advantage. Success for either side also depends on how much time Shough has in the pocket. If his play-action fakes are credible and his protection holds up, he will put points on the board.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame has already made an alarming number of mistakes in this phase of the game. Blocked field goals, bad snaps, and muffed punts are often errors that lead directly to a loss. Freeman promises to analyze and fix these mistakes, yet they persist. Kicker Mitch Jeter is accurate when the rest of his teammates do their jobs properly. Punter James Rendell is rounding into form and could become a difference maker in the field position battle.

Veteran Louisville kicker Brock Travelstead is 3/6 on field goals. Thus far in 2024 he has missed a short one and both attempts from over 50 yards, including one from 60. He has converted four of five field goal attempts in last year’s contest. Punter Brady Hodges has a 43-yard average this season but was five yards better last week.

Riley is the Cards’ primary punt return man and has a 29-yarder to his credit. If he is slowed by an injury, he may not field punts against the Irish even if he is available at his cornerback spot. Isaac Brown is the kick returner but has not been very busy as yet.

SUMMARY

Three elements stand out. First, Louisville is a team that does not make mistakes but rather capitalizes on those of its opponent. Notre Dame has made a slew of errors, including head-scratching turnovers. Second, the Cardinal passing game versus the Irish secondary is strength against strength. Winning this matchup is crucial. Third, both teams want to run the ball but have struggled at times to do so. Leonard is a wild card in the running game and Louisville is well aware of it. Brohm responded to a question earlier this week regarding his plan to contain him.

“I just think it will be another good test for our defense,” he said. “We’ll have to be really sharp. Not giving up big plays will be big, not giving up big quarterback runs. It’s one thing if you get two, three, four sometimes five yards but big runs will be a big play. Then trying to stop the run, making them throw the ball vertically will be something we have to really concentrate on. But they’re well coached and they’ve utilized his talents very well to this point this year.”

On offense, Notre Dame must make better use of Jeremiah Love and Jordan Faison. Leonard must be sharper on his short throws in order to avoid being forced to make long ones. Even more critical than Leonard’s performance is that of the offensive line. The youngsters on the left side have regressed after a surprisingly good outing in the season opener. Penalties and whiffed blocks have been far too plentiful of late. A repeat of these failures will doom the hosts on Saturday.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Which defensive line will be able to stuff the run?
• Can Notre Dame’s secondary prevent big plays by the Cardinal passing game?
• Will Brohm catch Notre Dame off balance with a trick play?
• Can Leonard improve his accuracy and minimize three and out series?
• Will the Irish offensive line rise above its recent mediocrity?
• Can Notre Dame’s special teams contribute in a positive way?
• Which team will commit key mistakes and turnovers?
• Will Denbrock be predictable or can he keep the Louisville defense off balance?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame is a slightly better team on paper but they have not impressed at home this season. Louisville’s front four will control the Irish attack if the left side of the offensive line continues to struggle. In order to win, the Irish quarterback, linemen, and the offensive coordinator must raise their game to a higher level. Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? Not very, although this team has defied logic all season. Fans should be able to tell where the day is headed before the first quarter is over. It is imperative that the Irish get off to a strong start and play with the lead. If they continue to stumble out of the gate, they are unlikely to recover.

The Cardinals are not a great team but they are well-coached and disciplined. Football games do not always go according to plan, however, especially on the road. Conversely, Notre Dame is overdue for an inspired performance in front of the home crowd. The green jerseys are a nice touch but it is not 1977 anymore. This game will not be nearly as impressive as last year’s win over USC but I believe the Irish have it in them to pull off a victory.

NOTRE DAME 24  LOUISVILLE 20

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