Notre Dame returns to action on Saturday night to face a familiar foe in the Naval Academy at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C. The Midshipmen are 4-4 on the season but are trending upward after regaining the services of quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who had been limited by a knee injury during a stretch of three consecutive losses earlier this month. Reynolds returned to form against San Jose State last week and rushed for 251 yards in a 41-31 victory. The Irish are 6-1 and looking to win in more convincing fashion after having the game winning touchdown at Florida State cruelly snatched away by a ludicrous pass interference call. The game will be nationally televised on CBS beginning at 8:00 Eastern.

The initial post-season playoff committee rankings were released this week and Notre Dame was slotted a disappointing tenth among teams fighting for four spots. This result confirmed the worst fears of Irish fans regarding the process – the committee participants are basically shills for the power conferences, and their individual biases are masked by a secret ballot. The path forward for the Irish is clear. The team must win the remaining five games, hope that normal November attrition will disqualify a few pretenders rated ahead of them, and plead their case in the court of public opinion. The officiating debacle in Tallahassee had already placed a massive chip on the shoulders of the players and coaches, and this latest insult perpetrated by the playoff selection committee should generate even more motivation.

Navy will pin its hopes on the fact that they have won three of the past seven meetings despite trailing by 74-12-1 in the series. The Midshipmen have the top rushing offense in the country at over 350 yards per game, while Notre Dame’s defense is among the stingiest against the run, yielding an average of only 103 yards. This element of the overall matchup has generated additional interest as first-year Irish Defensive Coordinator Brian VanGorder brings an attacking mindset to the battlefield. Under his predecessor, Bob Diaco, Notre Dame turned in some of its worst ever defensive performances against Navy.

The fullback dive is the staple of the option attack, and it is currently run by Noah Copeland and Chris Swain. Reynolds is particularly adept at pulling the ball away from them and darting past slow-to-react linebackers. Slotbacks Geoff Whiteside and DeBrandon Sanders have been effective in taking the outside pitch for big yardage, and Navy expects to regain the services of its fastest player, Ryan Williams, who is back from a head injury. The Midshipmen have a few walking wounded along the offensive line, although no starters have been ruled out for this game. “They’re all banged up. Our offensive line, everybody is taped up. They look like a bunch of mummies, but they just keep working. They don’t complain,” Coach Ken Niumatalolo said. The Irish are relatively healthy for this contest although safety Austin Collinsworth is unofficially lost for the season.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NAVY’S DEFENSE

The Irish running game rose to a new level against the Seminoles, and should have no problem establishing superiority over the out-manned Midshipmen. Tarean Folston has broken from the pack in recent weeks to assume the role of lead back, but this game presents an opportunity for Greg Bryant and Cam McDaniel to get significant work. Success on the ground will set up a devastating aerial assault off play-action fakes. Everett Golson and his receivers should have a good day, but the plan should be for Golson to throw fewer than 20 passes before exiting the stage.

Navy has a few talented players on defense that deserve mention. Ends Will Anthony and Paul Quessenberry are used to taking on 300 pound blockers in their 3-4 alignment, and they typically exceed expectations. Linebackers Daniel Gonzales, Chris Johnson, Jordan Drake and Obi Uzoma make most of the tackles and are all quick to the ball. The problem is this group does not create much pressure or force negative plays. Opponents have committed eight turnovers in as many games and the Midshipmen have recorded just three sacks.

The secondary has also been victimized with alarming frequency, as teams have completed 68% of their passes. Still, free safety Parrish Gaines is a legitimate talent and running mate Kwazel Bertrand is a sure tackler. At cornerback, Quincy Adams is the best cover man but will have his hands full against the Irish receivers.

Notre Dame’s approach should be to exploit its physical superiority and convert opportunities into points. Turnovers and careless penalties must be avoided. The Irish could settle the issue early if they play crisply, or they could be forced to keep their starters in the game much longer than desired if the offense shoots itself in the foot.

NAVY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The plan for the Midshipmen is simply to execute its triple option offense with precision and make sure the ball does not hit the ground. With Reynolds healthy and good speed on the outside, Navy may be able to keep Notre Dame off balance, particularly in the early going. The Midshipmen offensive line is a veteran group lead by seniors Tanner Fleming at center, right guard Jake Zuzek, and left tackle Bradyn Heap.

Expect Notre Dame to attack the line of scrimmage with maximum penetration to disrupt the option before it starts, and also hit Reynolds with relentless regularity. A passive approach has been a large part of the problem during the past seven seasons, as it neutralizes the athletic superiority of the Irish. Navy has enjoyed considerable first quarter success in recent years while Notre Dame has been caught flat-footed and entirely reactive.

Reynolds has completed only 45% of his throws and is out of his element as a pocket passer. The Irish can exploit this weakness by winning the battle on first down and making it untenable for the Midshipmen to sustain drives on the ground when they are constantly in third and long situations. Navy always employs a few surprise flea flickers or pass plays off a reverse to catch an opponent napping, so young safeties Max Redfield and Elijah Shumate must maintain discipline. If such plays are called, the likely target will be wide receiver Jamir Tillman, a 6’4” sophomore with above average speed.

The biggest risks for the Irish defense are getting caught out of position and missing tackles. The former is a distinct possibility with just a few days of practice against this unique opponent, but it is not to be construed as an excuse. The tackling concern should be mitigated by the fact that Notre Dame had an extra week off to refresh and the team is undoubtedly in a nasty mood given the recent events discussed above.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Midshipmen do a credible job of covering kicks and punts, although they do not generate many yards in their own return game. Notre Dame can leverage its depth and athleticism to maintain superior field position with strong special teams play. This would be helpful and is highly recommended since several plays will have to be executed well for Navy to complete a long scoring drive against the Irish.

Kyle Brindza remains a valuable weapon for Notre Dame, while the Midshipmen have struggled in the kicking game. Opening day starter Nick Sloan made only three of eight field goals before being replaced last week by Austin Grebe, who made both of his short attempts against San Jose State.

SUMMARY

Notre Dame should enter the contest with considerable pent-up aggression that will translate well on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, there are several matchups for Golson to exploit without taking undue risk, and the tailbacks should get plenty of chances. The Irish simply need to cash in their scoring opportunities and establish a lead that causes Navy to throw the ball more than they desire. The Midshipmen want to control the time of possession through the running game and limit the number of scoring chances for Notre Dame to keep the score from getting out of hand.

Obviously, the longer Notre Dame allows Navy to stay close on the scoreboard, the more dangerous they become. The Midshipmen will not be easily discouraged if they are down by only one or two scores in the second half. The Irish understand now that the playoff ranking process is really a beauty contest, and there is little to be gained by a sluggish win when a dominant performance is needed.

Here are a few questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Can the Irish defense limit the Midshipmen to short gains on first down?

Will a healthy Reynolds be too quick for Notre Dame’s linebackers?

Can the Irish convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns?

Which team will commit costly turnovers?

Will Navy be able to burn Notre Dame with gimmick plays?

Can the Irish escape with no significant injuries?

PREDICTION

If Navy is to threaten in this contest, Notre Dame will have to help them by committing unforced errors and letting Navy dictate the pace of the game. Given the recent history between these programs and the prime time exposure in the nation’s capitol, a poor performance by the Irish does not seem likely. The Midshipmen are bound to have a few successful moments by virtue of their grit and well-drilled offensive scheme, but it won’t be enough to make this game close.

NOTRE DAME 45 NAVY 14