Notre Dame and Navy travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey on Saturday for this season’s episode of their historic rivalry. The Midshipmen (6-0) have scored 45 points per game and are a far cry from the squad that lost to the Fighting Irish by 42-3 last August. Notre Dame has won four straight games of late behind a suffocating defense and an improving offense. Saturday’s game will be broadcast nationally by ABC starting at 12:00 Noon Eastern time.
Navy’s Head Coach Brian Newberry is in his second season at the Academy after serving as a defensive assistant for four seasons. He began with a 5-7 mark in 2023 but has quickly reversed the fortunes of a program that had not enjoyed a winning record since 2019. Despite his team’s success this year, Newberry understands his team is the underdog this week. When asked what it would take to prevail against Notre Dame, he responded as follows:
“It doesn’t take a miracle. It doesn’t take something superhuman. But our guys know they’re going to have to play extremely, extremely well in all three phases for all four quarters just to have a chance. They know that. But at the same time, these guys believe they can go win this game. And we’re going to play this game to win it. Not for a pat on the back, not for a moral victory. But we’re going to play to win it.”
Conversely, Notre Dame Head Coach Marcus Freeman acknowledged the difficulty of preparing for and defending Navy’s unconventional offense. “You gotta be disciplined. It’s really hard to simulate in practice the speed at which they run their offense, he said. “It can take a little time, especially for guys that have not faced that type of offense, to realize the speed at which they run their offense. And then when all of a sudden you’re trying to adjust to the speed, you can lose your eyes on keeping your eyes on your assignment. We have to be disciplined. We have to practice until we can’t get it wrong, but then we gotta understand it’s going to take a little bit of time to catch up to game speed on Saturday.”
After losing cornerback Benjamin Morrison two weeks ago, Notre Dame did not suffer any major injuries against Georgia Tech. That said, kicker Mitch Jeter, defensive tackle Jason Onye, and guard Billy Schrauth remain unlikely to see action on Saturday. Slot receiver Jordan Faison was available but was not targeted in the passing game. We will see if he is more involved this week. Navy is not reporting any significant injuries among its starters.
NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NAVY’S DEFENSE
It is imperative that the Irish run the ball with authority against the undersized but determined Navy defense. Lately, tailbacks Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price have been getting most of their yards after first contact. The holes have not been open in most cases due to poor execution up front. Opposing defenses have also anticipated play calls based on personnel and alignment. The back seven Midshipmen defenders average only 200 pounds per man so there are no excuses this week.
Navy’s front four includes three down linemen and a hybrid position called Raider. End Justin Reed is the leader of this group. He has four sacks to date and seven tackles for loss. Middle linebacker Kyle Jacobs is flanked by leading tackler Colin Ramos and Jaxson Campbell. Ramos and Campbell are aggressive in terms of run blitzes and creating negative plays. The Middies have recorded an impressive 15 sacks in six games.
The secondary has been a strong component of this defense. They have picked off ten passes and returned three for touchdowns. Cornerback Dashaun Peele leads the group with three interceptions. He has 166 return yards on those picks, with two resulting in scores. Free safety Rayuan Lane has two interceptions with 86 return yards and one touchdown. The takeaway is that Navy is very athletic on the back end and competitive despite below average size.
Notre Dame can expect the familiar pattern of its opponent crowding the line of scrimmage and daring them to pass. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been slow to find open receivers while under pressure, so this strategy has paid dividends. Given time in the pocket, Leonard’s poise and decision making should continue to improve. His offensive line holds the key to victory this week and truly for the rest of the season.
NAVY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE
Newberry has tailored the traditional option scheme to take advantage of his players’ strengths. He inherited good talent on this side of the ball but has brought their productivity to a higher level. Both Newberry’s innovations and the work ethic of quarterback Blake Horvath have enabled Navy’s success this season.
Horvath has led the Midshipmen to significant offensive improvement from 2023. He has improved as a passer, is smart, and makes good decisions. Horvath has completed 64% of his passes. Over the past couple of decades, quarterbacks for the Midshipmen have averaged about 50%.
Fullback Alex Tecza and tailbacks Eli Heidenreich and Brandon Chatman round out the backfield behind Horvath. Each understands his role and executes every play with precision. Tecza is the team’s second leading rusher behind Horvath. Heidenreich is the team’s leading receiver, where he routinely turns short tosses into big chunk plays. Horvath prefers to throw to his backs, as wide receiver Nathan Kent and tight end Coby Howard have only three receptions apiece.
Notre Dame’s defense must be rock solid all afternoon to avoid embarrassment or even defeat. Veteran linebacker jack Kiser is the only member of the back seven that has played extensively against the academies. The other defenders on the back end may struggle to find their footing.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Zac Yoakam has filled in admirably for Jeter during the past two weeks. MetLife Stadium is historically a difficult venue for kickers due to swirling winds. Such conditions could impact Yoakam’s ability to convert field goals, as they often do to NFL level kickers. Punter James Rendell has yet to establish a level of consistency that would put Irish fans at ease when he is working.
Navy kicker Nathan Kirkwood has a range of approximately 45 yards. He has made three of four field goal attempts with one block. Punter Riley Riethman is an excellent performer. Of his 25 attempts this season, 11 have landed inside the 20-yard line with only two touchbacks.
The elusive Heidenreich is the primary punt returner. His backup, 5’9” 160-pound speedster Isaiah Bryant, handles kickoffs. Both can be quite dangerous if given room to maneuver.
SUMMARY
Notre Dame would normally dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup. This year, however, their advantage has been diluted by injuries. The Irish have lost three starters (Jagusah, Craig, Schrauth) on offense and several key pieces (Botelho, Traore, Onye) on the defensive front.
Navy’s defense is underrated. The Midshipmen have played exceedingly well this season and can win if they continue to execute their plan as well as they have to date. They have enjoyed a 14-2 turnover margin and allowed opponents to score touchdowns from the red zone only 42% of the time.
On offense, Navy has scored a touchdown in 22 of 23 red zone excursions. Horvath has netted 621 yards on the ground and thrown ten scoring passes as compared to 456 yards and six passing TDs for Leonard. Each has rushed for ten scores.
Notre Dame is by far the most talented team they have faced to date but Navy is undaunted by the challenge. The key for the Irish is discipline on defense. Their young ends must set the edge and not allow Navy’s speedy backs around the corner. The linebackers and safeties must also fill gaps properly and make sure tackles. This will not be easy. The Middies run the option, counters, and misdirection from a variety of formations. Their multiple approach makes it tough for defenders to process and react effectively at game speed.
Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:
- Can the Irish defense get off the field on third or fourth down?
- Will Leonard and his wide receivers solve Navy’s opportunistic secondary?
- Can Notre Dame’s offensive line create holes for Love and Price?
- Will the Irish be able to reverse Navy’s success in turnover margin?
- Can Notre Dame’s special teams provide a spark?
- Will the Irish defensive backs be able to tackle in space?
- Which offense will be more efficient in the red zone?
- Can the Midshipmen turn short passes into big gains?
PREDICTION
Both teams have a connection to the greater New York area, so neither will have an advantage on Saturday. Notre Dame must play a clean game to allow its talent advantage to dictate the results. Navy is not a team that makes multiple mistakes and beats itself. The game should feature a breakout performance by the tandem of Love and Price. Leonard’s passing statistics will improve if his linemen give him time to locate and connect with his targets. Although Navy is a better version of itself than in 2023, the physical matchups should not be much different. In that case, the Irish should prevail without too much drama.
NOTRE DAME 38 NAVY 21
Tell John what you think in the comments below
Will says:
This is a huge, huge game for the Naval Academy. A Navy victory on Saturday will represent the highest point for their football program since they had two Heisman Trophy winners in the early 1960s – Joe Bellino and Roger Staubach. And…that’s not all…a Navy victory would give them a plausible, if somewhat remote, chance to be considered for the college football playoff. As a result the Midshipmen will be sky high. Not only will they have an emotional advantage, but they will have the schematic edge by presenting ND with two exotic tactical approaches that the Irish have not seen before. On offense they feature a unique “spread option” attack that gives them a passing game they have not had for at least 40 years. On defense, be aware of their “shoot the gaps” bonsai attack. ND has only had a week to prepare for these unorthodox strategies. So…Navy has a very good chance of winning this game. Notre Dame, however, has two advantages: 1)bigger, faster players and 2) the experience of having played a much tougher schedule than the Navy. Who will win? I go back and forth. If Navy gets an early lead, I worry about the ability of ND’s offense to match scores. An early lead will also add rocket fuel to Navy’s emotional high. If, however, ND can come out of the gate strong and exert its will right from the beginning, the reality of trying to overcome superior athletes may dampen Navy’s spirits. In the final analysis, I am putting my trust in Marcus Freeman’s new found intensity. The man knows he must win every game to keep the wolves off his back. I truly believe he will have the Irish ready for anything. My prediction: ND 28 Navy 24.
TumorGoByeBye says:
Will according to earlier reports, the team has been “repping” Navy during camp and over the bye week in addition to the intensity of this week. No classes. The fact that Navy is undefeated is not lost on the players or their coach. This will not (I think. I hope.) be as close as you suggest. ND 35 Navy 21.
mike '73q says:
There is approximately ZERO reason for this to be close, to paraphrase a Lou Holtz comment about a game 30-some years ago. Better, bigger, stronger, more accomplished athletes, with experience against a decidedly tougher schedule this season, playing in front of what is likely to be an ND crowd, and playing FOR a shot at the CFBP, all leads to the only conclusion plausible: this gameand its outcome rest solely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. If Leonard is focused and intentional it won’t be close; if not, ND is behind 14-zip within 10 minutes max, and all bets are off.
DVS says:
Hoping Navy is looking ahead and past ND to the undefeated and higher ranked Army team!😂
David Reuter says:
John reminding us that 3 starters on offense and 3 starters on defense will not be in this game is something that I marvel at. It seems to me that many of our teams of past years would not be where this one is with the loss of 6 starters. Yes, I know this type of depth and better is needed to play with and beat the top teams in the country. I am grateful for this incremental improvement.
“The game should feature a breakout performance by the tandem of Love and Price.” is an insight I did not have yet my gut agrees(hopes) with wholeheartedly.
Thank You John for another great background article.
mike '73 says:
SHOULD FEATURE a breakout performance by the tandem of Love and Price……SHOULD. Whether it does is up to our esteemed O.C. and his O-line coach.
Irishwolf says:
Thank you John for the preview. With regard to your excellent catch of ND runners getting most yards after initial contact, do you think 2 backs, not 1, and/or QB under center could help ND in that regard?
The Irish have 4 issues to deal with, IMO: Can the Irish defense keep assignment discipline (or will we see gash plays by Navy)? Can the Irish offensive line open running routes against run-stop oriented Navy? What Riley Leonard will we see this week- the one who can’t pass well or the one who passes well-enough to keep Navy off balance? Complementary football- will the Irish offense limit 3-and-outs/6-and-outs or put the Irish defense on the field too much/too long?
I believe the game will depend on Al Golden’s constant adjustments making just enough of a difference so that ND can win a close one- ND 25 Navy 21.
John Vannie says:
Yes, especially on short yardage. QB under center and two back sets would be good options to have. The linemen still can’t whiff on their blocks though. This happens too often.
Navy will likely have a few plays where they break outside containment or gash ND inside. I expect this in the first half but Golden will fix those issues.
mike '73 says:
Our O-line issues are well documented, seen weekly. They are also facilitated by our shotgun offensive system, at least as regards our running game efficiency and effectiveness, and most particularly on short-yardage plays. Hiking the ball back to a spot 6 yards or more behind the LOS just delays the timing of the RB hitting the expected hole, which by that point is often now closed up. We have seen SO many holes be briefly open and then close by the time they hit it, because of where they start. It would seem obvious that a shaky O-line, now after injuries being manned by 3 non-starters, needs all the help it can get, yet ND continues with the shotgun approach to its running game, even in very short yardage situations, and is so often unsuccessful a result.
John Vannie says:
I believe I said the same thing in much fewer words.
❤️#501988🍀🏈💪 says:
Same story this week as it has been since week 2. Need to show a consistent play of ball and impose the WILL on both sides of the ball
My ❤️ for NAVY (🇺🇸🗽🦅⚓🏈) will always be because without them, my beloved 🍀 probably would not be here.
With playing 2 Service Academies this season with historical ties and we can’t schedule at least one of them on Veteran’s Day Weekend!? 2 years in a row!!!!! That’s a DAMN shame!!!! Do BETTER 🍀!!!!
IrishMac says:
John, can you expand in Onye? Is he injured or out for other reasons? Thanks.
John Vannie says:
Personal reasons. Doubt he will return this season.
Jake in Cali says:
JVAN,
Notre Dame should win this game by 20 + points..
But they won’t..
Slow starts.. Offense going MIA for long stretches.
Young defenders seeing the triple option for the first time and having to adjust to the speed and relentless way Navy attacks..
I’ve said for numerous years that we should not play Navy every year.. Once a decade would be good.. And now we’re playing Navy and Army in the same year…. Not a fun watching experience..
Navy will be an absolute handful with no bye week to fully prepare..
I think the Irish survive…but like many other Irish faithful around the nation, I’m not truly sure..
ND 34
Navy 33
Kevin says:
No way does Navy score 33 on this defense. No way.
Scott M. Friery says:
**BUZZZZZZZZ** Boy, were you WRONG!! 😃😃😃
Jake in Cali says:
Yeah, I saw that you predicted Navy would have 6 turnovers!!
Great call Scott.. You’re a genius!!. You should move to Vegas…LOL…
I had the Irish winning and that’s all that really matters..
Stephen Romey says:
Johnnie is being pretty generous on the predicted score. I was raised very close to Annapolis, and I am a former Marine officer, so I have a modicum of support for Navy, but I really think the Navy success has been a product of a very lame schedule. Yes, ND had a terrible game against NI, but since then, ND has acquitted itself very well. ND just needs to control the clock with a strong run game – and stop the 3rd and short and 4th and short plays – Navy will go for it on 4th down anywhere past their own 40.
As far as the Navy QB being a Heisman candidate – that’s stupid. This guy would be run over in the SEC, Big 10 (formerly), or even ACC.
mike '73 says:
He seems like a poor man’s Tim Tebow, on the FB field. That’s based only on descriptions read, not direct observations of his playing. GO IRISH!!
NBND75 says:
The Navy game is important and should always be on our schedule. It represents commitment, history and integrity. A person’s word should be their bond. Navy looks forward to 2 games: Notre Dame and Army. The game represents tradition, which is something college football is losing too much of in the race to make more money. I expect us to win a hard fought game. And I expect both schools will be winners by keeping this tradition alive.
Tom R says:
Amen!
mike '73 says:
Could not possibly agree more. GO NAVY, beat ARMY! GO IRISH, BEAT NAVY!!!
Stephen Romey says:
I respect the tradition of the ND/Navy game, but this game was not hard to predict. Navy’s wins are not at all against quality opponents. Charlotte, Bucknell, Temple, et al? The is a price to be paid by playing a cup cake schedule, and then playing against a (soon to be) top 10 team. The broadcasters on the game cast seem to trip over themselves to heap praise on what I see has a completely unheralded Navy team. If you are undefeated playing a Big 10 or SEC schedule, ok then take your deserved kudos. As far as ND, they can run the table the rest of the way out, and I think they stand an excellent chance of getting into the 12 team playoff. From there, things get ‘interesting.’