Notes from the Geetar: Transitive Property Edition

el kabong with geetarNormally I use these columns as a stream of consciousness thing, but I figured I’d try something different today.  So you won’t hear me wonder if the two field goal attempts down four scores means Dino Babers is one of those guys who would bunt to break up a no-hitter.

No, today I want to set aside NDHarvey’s philosophy and talk about Notre Dame’s current national ranking.

Historically, it’s been very difficult, nigh impossible, to apply the transitive property to college football teams.  Because Team A defeated Team B and Team B defeated Team C, it does not necessarily follow Team A would be expected to defeat Team C.  Each game has its own dynamics.  In math, 2 + 2 always equals 4, but in college football, 2 does not always equal 2.

Having copped to all that, let’s talk about Alabama.  They’re the Team of the Century, operating on a plane well above other mortal programs, and their 2018 national championship is a foregone conclusion.

Or is it?  Let’s examine their body of work.

The biggest thing working against Alabama is their out-of-conference schedule.  Their opener against Louisville was supposed to be a challenge, until the Cardinals turned into a dumpster fire.  The rest of the slate featured such formidable adversaries as Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and the cherry on this quality sundae, The Citadel.  Of course, the Tide blew those teams out, but weren’t they expected to?

The rest of their resume is made up of the allegedly always-dangerous SEC.  Every year, we’re inundated with stories about the mighty Southeastern Conference and how They Beat Up On Each Other™.  So let’s see how much they’re beating themselves.

Alabama 62, @Ole Miss 7.  The Rebs are 5-6, having just lost in OT at Vanderbilt.  Their schedule for the most part is big wins over nobodies and blowout losses to conference teams, with the exception of Arkansas, who they (and everyone else these days) managed to beat.

@Alabama 45, Texas A&M 23.  A&M currently is 3rd in the SEC West with a 7-4 overall record.  Their other three losses were by two to Clemson, 15 at Mississippi State, and four at Auburn.  They’ll take on LSU this weekend.

Alabama 65, @Arkansas 31.  As previously noted, the Hogs stink on ice.  If it weren’t for Eastern Illinois and Tulsa, they’d be 0-fer the season.

@Alabama 39, Mizzou 10.  The Tigers also sit at 7-4.  While their early resume looks weak, they have come on lately, including a win at Florida.  Yet they couldn’t beat Kentucky at home.  They’ll probably end up at eight wins after beating Arkansas this weekend.

Alabama 58, @Tennessee 21.  The Vols are 5-6, and have pretty much lost to every allegedly good team they’ve played.  In one of the few quality non-conference games I’m seeing here, they got clobbered by WVU to open the season.

Alabama 29, @LSU 0.  OK, this game I want to talk about a little bit.  LSU’s resume got an early boost when they handled Miami, but as with Louisville, that was before everyone knew how craptastic Miami would be this season.  But by then, it was too late — the LSU-as-quality-team mantra was established.  They gave Georgia their only loss so far, and definitely deserve credit for that.  Then again, they lost to Florida, and only beat Arkansas by seven.  And I still can’t wrap my head around the possibility Ed Orgeron, resident meathead and 31-31 lifetime record as a head coach coming into this season, is somehow an Elite Coach.

@Alabama 24, Mississippi State 0.  Another 7-4 SEC team who really didn’t play anybody OOC and managed to get pounded by Kentucky and score six points against Florida.

So what does all this tell us?

Overall, the lack of any kind of marquee OOC victory should be a drag on them.  They’re certainly a talented team, and if you give Saban and his army of analysts 40 days to look you over, chances are a win will be tough to come by.  But it’s not like there’s a game to which we can point here and say, “See, this proves they’re a true force to be reckoned with”.

But maybe that’s a problem everyone has right now, because outside of the Tide, there aren’t any teams that are considered truly elite.  The Irish have their detractors, although this week’s result should help.  Clemson has been blowing out bad teams, but only really played A&M OOC and has certainly looked mortal at times.  None of the one-loss teams necessarily stand out from each other, and all of them have a game or two where they looked weak.

12 games is a tough slog, and it’s hard to look good every week.  As insular as their schedule is, though, Alabama’s managed to do it just as well if not better than most.  So right now, it’s probably logical to assume a title for them … but that doesn’t make it impossible.

Which leads to the ND connection in all this — what if we play them in the post-season?

First, I’d much rather see them on January 7th than December 29th.  As I said, Saban and his posse are death with a month to prepare.  I think a week makes them much more reasonable, especially if it means the Irish have a quality win in Miami under their belt.

Second, I’m not going to consider an AL win a foregone conclusion in that event.  This team is not the 2012 team, where a once-in-a-generation talent at LB put the team on his back.  This team is getting contributions all over the place, especially on defense.  Although the OL still looks like the weak link, I like the possibility the Irish defense can make Tua Tagovailoa’s life interesting for at least an evening.

Third, I’ll go on the record now a reasonably-competitive loss to Alabama would be nothing to complain about this season.  We all know what a non-competitive loss looks like, we saw it in 2012.  Giving the Tide a game for a half or three quarters would be an accomplishment.  I’d vastly prefer four to three, but let’s see what we can do in the meantime.

6 thoughts on “Notes from the Geetar: Transitive Property Edition

  1. I am with you, Mike. I, too, am not sold on an Alabama title being a forgone conclusion this season. I am Alabama alum (but, I’ve bled Blue and Gold my entire life), so I have a ton of friends from school days who call/text/message me “I’ve never seen offensive production like this Alabama team.” My response is, usually, “Yeah, me either. But, it is easy when your competition is not all that great week-to-week.” which usually incites a war of words.

    The numbers you’ve presented truly only show that the SEC is really, now, only Alabama and Georgia (LSU are still pretenders AFAIC).

    And, for as much credit as I’ve given to Tagovailoa for his play, I do not see him through the same set of eyes as everyone else. Again, it goes back to the level of competition he and Alabama have played this season as compared to years past. Until he meets a really stout pass rush and is able to put up similar numbers, I’m not on the “Tua for Heisman” boat. Thus, in that same vein, until he and Alabama face someone tough on the D side of the ball, they’re going to have to earn their next title like everyone else in the country.

    Great article and analysis. Thank you, sir!

  2. Until recently, I was thinking there was 1. Bama, and then a distant 2) Clemson, and then a distant 3) Notre Dame. With that mindset, I was thinking there was some chance 2 could beat 1, and also a small but possible chance that 3 could beat 2.

    But with the way ND has been playing, I’m starting to think it is 1, 1a, and 1b. Clemson barely squeaked by Syracuse, who ND just destroyed. I was thinking that Clemson could beat Bama, but the way ND has been playing, I now think we can play with anyone, including Bama and Clemson.

    ND just beat a #12 ranked Syracuse team by 33 … and our offense did not play well. We took some dumb penalties (one on D cost us the shutout). What that means is – we can play EVEN BETTER! The ND talent level is elite. If we play our game, we can not only play with, but we can beat anyone. We could also get intimidated and screw up the championship game like in 2012 and get blown out again.

    Do you believe? I believe in ND!

    • I agree with what you’re saying, but keep in mind the Syracuse / Clemson game was the one where Clemson’s starter was knocked out and his backup had just transferred.

  3. Best scenario for ND is Ohio St beats Michigan and Oklahoma sneaks in at 4. This will ensure Saban has to prepare for a month of Oklahoma and their absurd offense. They can’t win the game but just might drive them nuts losing 55-41 type of game. Everyone raves about the Clemson QB, but I think he could get rattled with our d-line and make freshmen mistakes. If we get to a title game, anything is possible. It would be sum task beating Clemson and Bama back to back weeks and would make this the greatest season in Irish history.

  4. I appreciate the fact that you referred to the Alabama game as 2012, even though it actually occurred in 2013. The counter-trend (referring to the upcoming January 7 contest as the 2019 national championship game) will just lead to confusion in bar bets ten years hence.