Notre Dame’s final position in the Big East standings will begin to sort itself out when the Louisville Cardinals (18-5/7-3) travel to South Bend to play the Fighting Irish (19-4/8-3).  The winner will have the upper hand among the half dozen teams trying to position themselves in the league’s top four, and the loser will fall into a pack of the other five teams.  The upper hand might not last for more than another week in the difficult Big East, but it beats the heck out of chasing the crowd.

The Irish are excited about the opportunity to chase a first place finish, but they’re trying to channel their enthusiasm.  “The two H’s – humble and hungry,” said senior captain Carleton Scott.  “You stay cool, calm and collected, bring your lunch pail and go to work each day.”

What you need to know about Louisville

• #5 scoring offense in the Big East, 71.3 ppg
• #10 scoring defense in the Big East, 67.5 ppg
• #10 free throw percentage in the Big East, 68.1%
• #7 field goal percentage in the Bg East, 44.6%
• #5 field goal percentage defense in the Big East, 41.1%
• #6 three-point percentage in the Big East, 35.3%
• #10 rebounding margin in the Big East, -0.6
• #1 assists per game in the Big East, 17.2
• #6 turnover margin in the Big East, +0.9
• #4 assists/turnover ratio in the Big East, 1.2 (5 teams tied)

Louisville’s leading scorer, guard Preston Knowles, will return to the lineup after missing Saturday’s game against DePaul.  Knowles, who takes 62% of his shots from three point range, has scored 13.8 points per game in Big East play this season.  He has identical two and three point shooting percentages – 34.7%, so he is not an inside scoring threat.  However, he is capable of hot shooting games like his 31-point efforts against Michigan State and St. John’s.  Both of those games were at the Yum! Center in Louisville.

Fellow guards Peyton Siva and Chris Smith join Knowles with double digit scoring averages of 10.1 and 10.7 respectively.  Leading rebounder Rakeem Buckles has missed the conference season to date and will not play tomorrow.  Freshman center Gorgui Dieng will miss the game after suffering a concussion, and forward Stephan Van Treese is expected to be well enough to play after an early week stomach virus; so the rebounding burden will rest squarely on the shoulders of 6’10” junior forward Terrence Jennings.  Jennings has grabbed 5.6 rebounds per game.

Louisville has long relied on its defense generating offense, but it’s especially important with its front line depleted.  The Cardinals have done quite well at that aspect of the game, thank you very much, with a Big East leading 8.5 steals per game.  They also lead the conference in assists per game in no small part because fast break baskets are usually assisted.

What you need to know about Notre Dame

• #9 scoring offense in the Big East, 68.0 ppg
• #4 scoring defense in the Big East, 65.3 ppg
• #5 free throw percentage in the Big East, 73.3%
• #5 field goal percentage in the Big East, 45.4%
• #9 field goal percentage defense in the Big East, 43.3%
• #4 three-point percentage in the Big East, 37.7%
• #11 rebounding margin in the Big East, -0.8
• #8 assists per game in the Big East, 14.2 per game
• #10 turnover margin in the Big East, +0.2
• #4 assist/turnover ratio in the Big East, 1.2 (5 teams tied)

Ben Hansbrough’s 19.3 points per game lead the Irish in scoring.  He is 4th in the conference.  Tim Abromaitis (11.7) and Scott Martin (10.9) add double-digit averages with Carleton Scott and Ty Nash just under 10 points per game.  Carleton Scott’s 11-rebound effort against against Rutgers put him into the team lead.  He now averages 6.3 per game.  Nash, Martin, and Abromaitis  each add more than 5 boards per game.

The Matchup

I have talked about the need to improve rebounding for several games; and while this one is no exception with Louisville short handed on the front line, don’t expect to see Notre Dame hit the offensive boards at all against UL.  This game is all about tempo.  ND will do everything it can to keep the pace deliberate, and Louisville will try to get its running game going.  The game will be a battle of wills as much as it is a battle of skills.

Louisville will press; and because it plays three guards almost all of the time, Ty Nash is likely to draw a guard instead of a big man when he brings the ball up the floor.  With that advantage negated, look for Eric Atkins to play a big role for the Irish.  An excellent ball handler, Atkins is tied for the best assist/turnover ratio in the conference.

The Irish will run if they get opportunities after breaking the press, but they will be happy to play a halfcourt game most of the time because that’s where they get mismatches against the Cardinals.  UL’s three guards who start and play the most minutes are 5’11” (Siva), 6’1″ (Knowles), and 6’2″ (Smith).  Notre Dame starts one guard and four 6’8″ forwards.  One size mismatch is manageable, but UL will have to deal with two most of the time.  If Louisville brings forward help to Hansbrough on the drive, he’ll have his pick of 6’8 guys being covered by opponents under 6’2″.  Even zone will be a tough option for the Cardinals if they can’t keep the ball out of the lane.

At the other end of the floor, Louisville will try to find one match-up that works and go to it incessantly.  It will spend the opening minutes of the game probing for an advantage, so it will be interesting to see ND’s opening defensive assignments and any changes that are made in response to UL successes.  Martin will be key to the Irish defense because he has been effective covering guards.  Assuming Hansbrough starts the game defending Siva, will Martin draw Knowles or Smith.  My guess is that it will be Smith because he’s a dual threat scorer.  Zone will be an option to throw length at shooters if Louisville is hot from outside.

When all is said and done. tempo will determine the outcome.  Because the match-ups aren’t good for UL in halfcourt, it will need to get as many easy points from the fast break as possible.  ND’s first priority will be to stop the break, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Irish to use more and more shot clock as the game progresses.

Game Information

• #16 Louisville (18-5/7-3) at #8 Notre Dame (19-4/8-3)
• Wednesday, February 9th, at 7:00PM (ET)
• Purcell Pavillion at the Joyce Center, Notre Dame, IN
• Television: ESPNU
• Internet: None

(Note: All cited statistics are for conference games through Monday, February 7th

– Kevin O’Neill

PS… A little feedback please.

I cite a series of stats in each preview to give you snapshots of the teams.  Are there any others you would like me to include in the previews?