Most ND fans looked at the last two games as potential stumbles to avoid, and that pretty well sums up how those games unfolded.  This game is different.  A good team is coming to South Bend, the game is featured on national television, and the Fighting Irish have a path to a first place finish that became a little less than a pipe dream on Sunday.

This is going to be fun.

What you need to know about Villanova

• #3 scoring offense in the Big East, 71.2 ppg
• #11 scoring defense in the Big East, 68.2 ppg
• #1 free throw percentage in the Big East, 75.1%
• #7 field goal percentage in the Bg East, 43.5%
• #6 field goal percentage defense in the Big East, 41.7%
• #3 three-point percentage in the Big East, 37.3%
• #2 rebounding margin in the Big East, +3.8
• #10 assists per game in the Big East, 13.4
• #13 turnover margin in the Big East, -1.1
• #7 assists/turnover ratio in the Big East, 1.1 (6 teams tied)

If you have been watching Notre Dame all season, you will recognize many similarities when you get a look at Villanova – 7 man rotation, 88% of the points from the starting lineup, and a need to hit three point shots to make the rest of the offense work effectively.  Villanova’s three point shooting percentage is 19.2 points lower in its losses than it is in its victories, the largest margin in the Big East.  Notre Dame’s 15.6 three point percentage differential is second.

Unlike Notre Dame, which plays 4 forwards, Villanova plays 3 guards most of the time; and those guards provide most of the scoring punch.  Senior Corey Fisher averages 16.1 points per game (10th in the conference), senior Corey Stokes averages 14.0 per game, and sophomore Maalik Wayns averages 12.5 points.  The big men, senior Antonio Pena andsophomore Mouphtaou Yarou, add another 20 points while providing VU’s healthy rebound margin.  Pena averages 7.1 rebounds per game, and Yarou is corralling boards at a 6.5 per game clip.

As good as Villanova has been over the past several years, it has never been a great passing team.  Instead, the offense relies on guys who can penetrate and create their own shots.  They will try to run, and they will try to create space to create in halfcourt offense; so they’re susceptible to a defense that helps well more than one that tries to play man-to-man without switching and rotating much.

What you need to know about Notre Dame

• #4 scoring offense in the Big East, 70.4 ppg
• #9 scoring defense in the Big East, 66.6 ppg
• #6 free throw percentage in the Big East, 71.4%
• #2 field goal percentage in the Big East, 46.0%
• #9 field goal percentage defense in the Big East, 42.6%
• #2 three-point percentage in the Big East, 37.9%
• #7 rebounding margin in the Big East, +1.1
• #5 assists per game in the Big East, 14.9 per game
• #10 turnover margin in the Big East, -0.5
• #3 assist/turnover ratio in the Big East, 1.3 (3 teams tied)

Ben Hansbrough’s team leading 20.1 points per game place him 3rd in the Big East.  Tim Abromaitis (13.9), Scott Martin (10.1), and Carleton Scott (10.0) add double-digit averages.  Scott’s 7.8 rebounding average leads the team and ranks 4th in the conference.  Nash, Martin, and Abromaitis  each add between 5 and 6 boards per game.  Freshman guard Eric Atkins’ assist/turnover margin fell to 2.9 on Saturday, but he still has a comfortable conference lead in that statistical category.

The Matchup

It’s senior night at Purcell Pavilion, an undefeated home season is on the line, and the Irish are one win away from clinching the coveted double bye in the Big East Tournament.  They will be motivated, but they have to make sure to save some of the pregame emotion for the game itself because Villanova comes to South Bend one of five 9-7 teams battling for the last two spots in the Big East’s top 8 and a bye in the conference tournament.   Coming off losses to Syracuse and St. John’s and with a trip to Pittsburgh next weekend, the Wildcats will give the effort of a desperate team.

From Notre Dame’s perspective, the first half is about taking VU’s best shot, countering it with a surge of its own, and sending the Wildcats to the locker room doubting the game’s outcome.  Both Syracuse and St. John’s won games that were close at the half wit strong second half performances.  ND must make sure those second halves are in the Wildcats’ heads.

Villanova’s three point shooting is the most significant factor to watch.  Notre Dame ranks 16th in Big East three point percentage defense, and Villanova needs to make threes to win.   I don’t know that ND’s defense will matter as much as the VU shooters’ psyches.  The Wildcats are as capable of duplicating the 18% three point outing they had against Providence as they are the 61% outing against Louisville.  Providence is a terrible defensive team, and Louisville defends the perimeter aggressively; but you wouldn’t know that from the results vs. Villanova.

Ultimately, Notre Dame will win if it controls the pace of the game to negate Villanova’s speed advantage.  The Irish must stay with their offense even if the Wildcats shoot well and get an early lead.  If they start rushing shots to get back in the game, they will be playing VU’s game; and they won’t play VU’s game as well as VU does.

Game Information

• #15 Villanova (21-8/9-7) at #9 Notre Dame (23-5/12-4)
• Monday, February 28th, at 7:00PM (ET)
• Purcell Pavillion at the Joyce Center, Notre Dame, IN
• Television: ESPN
• Internet: ESPN3.com

(Note: All cited statistics are for conference games through Sunday, February 25th

– Kevin O’Neill