Recruiting, Stars and RKGs

(Notre Dame Football Recruiting News) –

See also: Recruiting Video Review

(The Rock Report) – The bottom line on this recruiting class, as new head Coach Brian Kelly readily acknowledges, is that it’s not good enough for Notre Dame and coming after last year’s disappointing class, Kelly has his work cut out for him in 2011. At the same time, it’s a class that’s similar to other top program’s classes signed in a coaching transition.

Kelly seems aware that there’s a lot of work to do, “We’ve got to have time. I mean, two months is not enough time to get the kind of guy that I want at the University of Notre Dame. You need time to build a relationship.”

Do Stars Matter?

No team has won the BCS title without having its freshmen through senior classes rate at least 3.6 stars on average and when this class matriculates it will move Notre Dame below that line. Just as recruiting is worthless without development, development will only get you so far without the right talent. Championship coaches do both well. Some fans seem to focus on one or the other, but the bottom line is that you need both to compete at the very top level.

Just in case you had a question about how much recruiting can improve your odds, consider the 2008 draft as documented by Athlon. 12 of the players drafted in the first three rounds were 5-star prospects. On average there are 27 5-stars per class. That’s a 44% hit rate. Now it’s ballpark because of early entries and 5th years, but even adjusting the numbers substantially, 5-stars have a much, much greater chance of being drafted in the first three rounds. On average there are 300 4-star players each year, but only 30 were drafted in the top three rounds in 2008 or 10%. For 3-stars the average is just under 4% and 2-stars average exactly 1%.

Even using these as just ballpark indicators, the difference in probability of being drafted in the first three rounds (a decent barometer of very good college performance) is stark:

5-Star = 44%
4-Star = 10%
3-Star = 4%
2-Star = 1%

One way to look at this is that there’s ample room for smart bottom fishing if you’ve got a great eye for development, but where would you place your bets? Exactly.

Development matters, but it’s a hell of a lot easier if you’re working with top athletes and Kelly’s going to be competing against coaches who (unlike Weis) can recruit, coach and develop.

Listen to Urban Meyer (no slouch at developing players) who prides himself on being able to recruit, motivate and develop top players, “If you know me, you know I think any offense can work if you have the right personnel back. Offenses are overrated. People are not… Again, it’s based on people. I keep going back to that, but if you have really good players, it’s really easy. If you don’t, it’s really hard. Is the West Coast offense easy to teach? If Joe Montana is throwing to Jerry Rice, yeah, Daffy Duck can teach it. I don’t want to de-value teaching. It’s absolutely critical, but I’m still going to go back to personnel.”

When a well coached team with exceptionally developed lower level recruits meets a well coached team with exceptionally developed higher level recruits the result looks like this:

Florida 51
Total Yards: 659

Cincinnati 24
Total Yards: 246


And it wasn’t even close to that close, the score was 37-3 at one point.

How Did Kelly Do Compared to Saban, Meyer and Stoops?

While this class is certainly in the “not good enough” category, it comes with an asterisk. This is a transitional class for Brian Kelly and in the end, it came in about on par with the transitional classes of top coaches who took over after the previous coach was fired. I used Rivals for consistency (for example Saban’s first class at Alabama was ranked 22nd in Scout and 10th by Rivals) and Phil Steele’s and others for classes that predated Rivals. For the record, Kelly’s transitional class was ranked 14th by Rivals and 19th by Scout.

  • Kiffin (UT): 10th*
  • Saban (Bama): 10th*
  • Kelly: 14*
  • Meyer: 15th*
  • Holtz: 15-20***/14th***
  • Saban (LSU): 24th**
  • Stoops: 36th**

*Rivals **Phil Steele aggregate rankings. ***Joe Terranova/Tom Lemming

Here’s what the breakdown of Rivals 5-star, 4-star and 3-star recruits looks like compared to recent coaches who have taken over after the previous coach was fired.

Kiff
in 2-09-12
Neuheisal 0-12-11
Kelly 0-10-12
Saban 0-10-12
Chizek 0-09-16
Meyer 0-08-09
Spurrier 0-06-15

So not a great start, but certainly right in the pack when compared to the benchmark coaches Kelly is competing against (both current and historical.) As I wrote before, about all you can make of this class is that there were no major red flags and. as Mike Coffey pointed out, no green flags either. Next year will tell us what we need to know about Kelly and his staff’s recruiting prowess.

Kelly, leveraging Weis holdover Dave Peloquin, dual tracked recruiting, “I think we’ve got our system in place in terms of our recruiting system. That is absolutely crucial. And now our coaches know their geographical areas. And I think now it’s not a scramble. We have clearly identified prospects for 2011 that we have had conversations today with a number of juniors. And recreated the signing day, essentially for them with those phone calls today, and offering scholarships to the University of Notre Dame. Really getting them to think, hey, the culmination of this in the next 365 days is going to be you signing your national letter of intent to come to the University of Notre Dame. So that is really the most important thing.”

From the “holy crap that was really bad file” the ten four-star recruits in this class (which equals last year’s total) are eight more than Weis recruited in his first class and twice as many as ND signed in 2004 and 2005 combined.

By manor98’s count on Rock’s House, Notre Dame is slightly ahead of last year’s pace as far as getting offers out early and 69% of those offers have gone to four or five star players. How does that compare with Saban, Meyer and Kiffin? 86% of Alabama’s offers are to four or five star players, 67% of Meyer’s offers are to four or five star players and 92% of Kiffin’s offers are to four or five star players.

What The Hell is All This RKG Talk?

One big question many fans have about Kelly and recruiting is exactly what he means when he uses the acronym RKG (right kind of guys.) I, like many, feared RKG was code for taking low hanging fruit and shying away from star athletes who might have attitudes or need more social development (the kind of players who often win championships and turn out well in the end.)

Championship coaches don’t take on head cases, but they also don’t shy away from taking on the development challenge of bringing in the very best athletes. Good coaches find a way to mold (scared you with that word didn’t I?) the best players. For example without Mardy Gilyard, Cincinatti wouldn’t have been undefeated this past year, yet Gilyard was hardly a stellar citizen when he was recruited (and not by Kelly, btw.) Great coaches win championships with great players. USC wouldn’t have won the National Championship without Bush. Texas wouldn’t have won their title without Vince Young. Tressell may yet win it again with Terrell Pryor (whom many thought was a problem player.)

So is it code or is it something else? As with every thing else about Kelly ( he appears to be an organizational freak,) he’s clearly defined what an RKG is so we don’t have to guess.

Here’s Kelly’s definition of an RKG:

  1. They’ve got to make profile
  2. They’ve got to have the academics.
  3. We have to clear their medical history.
  4. They’ve got to be socially a young man that we trust.
  5. They’ve got to have the right character.
  6. They have to have a passion for the game.

So there’s the RKG demystified. It still doesn’t answer the question about whether Kelly values, is willing to fight for and can land the top players, but at least it’s not mutually exclusive of 5-star athletes. The other important question is if RKGs include players like Chris Zorich.

What Does he Mean by Profiling?

For example, Kelly wants defensive ends that have long arms and are in the 6’4″ range; he also wants 6’6″ offensive tackles. If a player doesn’t make the profile, he has to have a compelling factor or intangibles that override the profile. One poster mentioned that Parcells used profiling as well, regardless, I think we’ve seen the end of the “smurf” cornerback. Little guys need not apply.

As he told told Irish Sports Daily, “I recruit power, big skill and skill. Those are the three categories, those are the only three categories I operate out of. Power, big skill and skill.”

Kelly also places a premium on those “big skill” kids, of which he recruited more than a few in this class, “big skill is profiling out, if I could take 20 guys who are tough gentlemen who fit the profile at Notre Dame academically and were 6-foot-4, 215 or 220 pounds, you’d never be able to track whose playing where.”

Kelly nabbed a couple of kids who were low rated quarterbacks, but have size and excellent athleticism for other positions. This was a smart route to go late in the game and is an underutilized recruiting stream.

Okay, that’s a big download.

What’s The Summary of All This by Position?

QB – Good numbers to work with, but no sure fire studs. We really needed a QB last year.
RB – One decent back. Not a great need.
WR – Numbers, but only one top recruit in Jones.
TE – Good, but not a gamechanger. Tough kid.
OL – Good. The development of Nichols will be interesting to watch. James and Lombard are very good. I’ll bet Heggie ends up here.
NG – Very good get in Nix.
DE – Weak. Two projects and only one is a likely future DE. Warning: We have one real DE recruit in two years.
LB – Good, not great, but decent numbers if you include Spond and/or Roback.
CB – Okay. Wood and Boyd are good not great gets. Warning: We have three CB recruits in two years.
S – Okay, not great. Collinsworth could end up here. Warning: We have one S recruit in two years.

It’s a decent glue/transition class, but Kelly needs to bring in the stars next year.





17 thoughts on “Recruiting, Stars and RKGs

  1. You're going to be surprised at how good this class will end up. Five of them are already a level ahead in physical maturity after just a month of work. It's easy to make fun of RKGs until you play against them.

  2. Sleepers in the class:

    Spond & Roback: Two big and very athletic white guys. I'm not sure where they'll fit, but I like picking them both up late in the game.

    Utupo: Big potential to move to defensive end and be a difference maker

    Shembo: Like Utupo, could become a great pass rushing defensive end, which ND desperately needs

    Nix, James and Lombard are great recruits for the line(s).

    Tai-ler Jones will challenge Kamara's freshman records (but not quite Floyd's)

    I'm most worried about the defensive backfield. Some have raved about the young guys that just came in, but they seem too small. We need more 6'2" 210-220 athletes at corner and safety to have a good defense. I think Kelly got some really great size up front (someone like Shwenke who already is lanky and looks like he's 25) but I'm hoping he moves some of the bigger athletes to the defensive back field.

  3. "We've got to have time. I mean, two months is not enough time to get the kind of guy that I want at the University of Notre Dame. You need time to build a relationship."

    Wait, I'm confused. So the kids he offered were not the kind of guys that he wants at ND?

    Seems he is trying to have it both ways. These are the RKGs but they are not good enough.

    Yes, this class was transitional, but of the 10 four stars signed by ND, only two were brought in by him. Most of this class' success has to be given to Charlie. If Kelly were hired after Ty, then this would be about a top 50 class.

    I'm not buying Kelly can recruit yet. We'll see how he does next year.

  4. Kelly was undefeated and played in a BCS bowl without having top recruits. I would love just see real improvement. I think he is the most qualified coach they have had since Holtz.

    ND over the last three years has had trouble beating just about everyone. Think about it, they lost to Navy twice, and awful Syracuse team, barely beat a San Diego State team that went on to have winless year. They lose to BC and MSU on a regular basis and those schools do not get top talent.

    My guess is that when ND plays Navy this year they will not be out hit and that they will be able to score from inside the ten yard line.

  5. "We don't play in the SEC"

    Yeah, it's hard to compete against members of the South Eastern Cheating/Criminals Conference.

    Are they still recruiting directly from the jails and prisons like they did in the '80s?

  6. Not going to argue this class will win any nat'l championships on its own (far from it), but I'm tired of the obsession I read constantly on this board that "Kelly cant recruit the big time guy". To me its assinine. He was at Cincinnati…no 5-star guy was gonna look at Cincinnati. He had no time to develop any relationships with them.

    Look…its this simple…when you win games, players come. And this recruiting class was better than 11 of our 12 opponents. This fall will be more of the same. We'll have more talent than the other team 11 of the 12 wknds we take the field. If we WIN THE GAMES WE'RE SUPPOSED TO WIN, we'll follow that up with Top5 recruiting classes year in and year out.

    WIN THE GAMES WE'RE SUPPOSED TO WIN. The rest will take care of itself.

    As for judging classes, this class will obviously be better than the '05 class (only 4 real contributors) but I firmly believe this class will pan out much much better than the vaunted 28member '06 class. I think you all need to stop looking at past class rankings when the kids left high school and start looking at on-the-field performance. In that '06 class we lost: Reuland, Carufel, Frazer, Jones, Gaines, Jackson, Prince, Yeatman to transfer, and Webb to injury. Another 8 solidly ranked guys barely contributed because they just weren't any good. Alot of that was on the fact that they just didnt have the talent….That's HORRIBLE recruiting.

    I trust Kelly more than the last guys we had at not only DEVELOPING players but also EVALUATING them.

    When he wins (and he will win just like he has everywhere else) the 5-star recruits will follow. The rest of this speculation is just a masturbatory exercise.

  7. Chilly, yeah, yeah, yeah baby, right on. Friggin perfect post.
    Sick of all this "can't recruit, can recruit" bs. HELLLLLOOOOO – WE'VE GONE 16-21 OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS. That ain't Kelly's fault. We're lucky to pull who we did this year. All this bs about our failure to close out on more 4 or 5stars b/c of Kelly's lack of recruiting acumen is just a lame attempt at substituting causation for association.

  8. Interesting insights in the above but all the speculation based on recruits is just that….speculation. Raw talent helps but hey let's have the strength and cond have at them and let the coaches go to work. Rankings are fun to play with, but it all counts on the field. I could care less if ND has the 100th ranked class and wins games consistently…

  9. You arm chair critics are so full of it, claiming impending doom because of the last two recruiting classes when only one or two of ND's future opponents had a better class. Stand back and let the coaches coach. ND needs to get back to a BCS bowl before they play for a national championship.

  10. In fact, he used the game as an avenue to teach life’s lessons. Coach Valesente, along with my parents, are responsible for any success I may have in life or coaching. I am forever indebted to him and could never repay him for what he has done for me and every other player that has ever stepped foot in his program at Ithaca College.

  11. Otis Criblecoblis says:

    Already, most folks are giving Kelly a pass on his first Irish season by labeling 2010 as a 'rebuilding' year.

    Huh?

    Aren't these the same people who also labeled Kelly a 'genius,' a proven winner, the marquee coach who will make us stop pining for the Holtz days, and the guy who can be a Big Time winner with 'less talent'…?

    So, why is this a 'transition' season? ND is loaded with talent, most of the recruits, thanks chiefly to Weis and his staff, are excellent, and Kelly brought his staff and organization with him to South Bend; i.e., he ain't starting from scratch.

    If Kelly is such a genius, then the expectations must be, 'win now,' and nothing less than a 2011 bowl game.

    I mean, it's not like he just jumped from the NFL and never head-coached in college before, or he was clueless about recruiting and top high school talent.

    In Weis's first season, he was a couple of plays away from the National Championship game, and he was dealt a lot worse cards than poor Brian Kelly has to play with.

    If Kelly's as good as his enormous billing, he should win at least 9 games this season.

    No more talk about rebuilding. Kelly needs to live up to his inflated hype this season.

    No excuses.

  12. Charlie was labeled the genius, not Kelly. Haven't heard anyone describe him that way. I also haven't seen the hype around Kelly, most seem very cautious about him. What hype and enormous billing are you referring to?

  13. Replying to Otis: Already, most folks are giving Kelly a pass on his first Irish season by labeling 2010 as a 'rebuilding' year. Huh?
    Aren't these the same people who also labeled Kelly a 'genius,' a proven winner, the marquee coach who will make us stop pining for the Holtz days, and the guy who can be a Big Time winner with 'less talent'…? So, why is this a 'transition' season?
    If Kelly is such a genius, then the expectations must be, 'win now,' and nothing less than a 2011 bowl game."

    I was the first guy on this blog to say Kelly was the right man for the job and I carried his banner, arguing, in the face of tremendous criticism, that he had demonstrated he didn't need 4 and 5star kids to compete for a National Championship. NO ONE should give him a pass on Year 1 based on this year's recruits. The key question mark is QB. Kelly had Pike and Collaros. Both were terrific and Collaros was actually better than Pike. I didn't see much of Crist, but he didn't impress me a good QB. If Andrew Hendrix sucks as well, it makes it hard to go 9-3. 8-4 might be more realistic. Anything less than that is a disater.

  14. "When a well coached team with exceptionally developed lower level recruits meets a well coached team with exceptionally developed higher level recruits the result looks like this:

    Florida 51
    Total Yards: 659

    Cincinnati 24
    Total Yards: 246

    And it wasn't even close to that close, the score was 37-3 at one point."

    Great article, overall, but this comment misses the whole point of the Kelly hiring. Kelly didn't coach the Bearcats in the Sugar Bowl and the Cats were plainly scared ___less from the jump because they knew Jeff Quinn, who did coach the game, was way way over his head. Quinn approved a decision to ditch the team's black unis, which they'd worn all season, for surrender all-white pants, jerseys and helmets. He failed to make a single adjustment all game and if the Sugar Bowl had a mercy rule the game would have been called at the Half. With Kelly at the helm, the Bearcats win or come extremely close. THAT my friends, is why Kelly is the right guy for Notre Dame.

  15. I'm a Bearcat fan and I am tired of people thinking that it would have been any different in the Sugar Bowl if Kelly coached if anything the score MAY have been a bit closer but no guarentee that ANY team could have beaten Florida in Tebows and wat was thought to be Meyer's last game! The Gators would hav stomped a mudhole in anyone that night! Now as 4 ND dnt think that things will change overnight 4 a program that's been going downhill 4 the last decade that's assinine! Kids want 2 win games, Championships and ND has been a far longshot cry from that for a long time now! The fact is its not Kelly and it wasn't Weis its Notre Dame! Kelly sceem worked here at UC and in the Big East but from the two BCS bowl games that UC has lost the past 2 years should let you know that Kelly doesn't have 6 star program COACHING experience! ND is on a much different level than UC and Kelly hasn't really seen that level yet coming from UC so ND should ask themselves this: Is Kelly the man that can ressurect the dead? Becuz in reality UC's ressurection started the year B4 Kelly arrived! He just got all the credit! But he can keep a program alive and make it better but can he TOTally revive it? That's the question