Notre Dame (5-3) hosts fourth ranked Clemson (8-0) on Saturday evening in the marquee game of this season’s home schedule. The Fighting Irish have built a semblance of momentum over the past two weeks. They are riding a strong ground game, an improved defense, and lights out special teams as they strive to reach their full potential. Meanwhile, the Tigers view Notre Dame as the last major obstacle on their cruise to an undefeated regular season and a berth in the College Football Playoffs.  NBC will televise the game beginning at 7:30 pm Eastern time.

Coach Dabo Swinney is in his fifteenth season at the school since being hired midway through the 2008 campaign. Swinney’s record is 158-36 with two national championships in six playoff appearances. The program continues to attract top shelf talent and has dominated the relatively weak ACC over the past decade.

Swinney understands that Notre Dame presents a different challenge than a typical conference opponent despite its early season stumbles. “Early on they were figuring out some things, but they have three grown men at running back”, he said on Tuesday. “There is no secret what their identity is. You can either match that or you can’t. They’ve played eight games. You have a style of play at this point. They are a physical group.”

The Tigers are coming off a bye week after a come from behind home victory over Syracuse, whom the Irish vanquished last Saturday. The comparative scores might suggest an advantage for Notre Dame this week, but this matchup looks much different when the strengths and weaknesses of each team are analyzed.

The Irish reported no new injuries following last week’s game. Wide receiver Braden Lenzy and defensive tackles Howard Cross and Jayson Ademilola are among those who are approaching 100% after battling through minor ailments.

Health-wise, Clemson is the best position this week than it has been all season. The Tigers played without versatile linebacker/rover Barrett Carter (concussion) last week, but he is set to return against the Irish. Defensive end Xavier Thomas has not played in 2022 after breaking a bone in his foot in August. He was replaced in the lineup by K.J. Henry, who leads the team in tackles for loss and quarterback pressures. Thomas is set to return this week, so the Tigers will be that much stronger. Reserve tailback Kobe Pace remains out, so Phil Mafah will back up starter Will Shipley.

The weather may also play a role in the strategies and final outcome. As is typical for South Bend, the current forecast calls for rain, high winds, and cooler temperatures. Much of the precipitation should pass through the area before kickoff, however, but those of us who have lived there know that conditions can change in an instant.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. CLEMSON’S DEFENSE

The irresistible force that is the Irish ground game is about to meet the immovable object that is the Tiger defensive front seven. Clemson’s 4-3 base alignment features a swarm of top recruits that would be the envy of any program. Ends Myles Murphy and Henry are backed up by Taylor while tackles Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis hold down the middle with Ruke Orhohoro in reserve.

The battle between Notre Dame’s offensive tackles and Clemson’s ends will be fierce but the game may be won or lost depending on how well Jarrett Patterson and the Irish interior players are able to block Davis and Bresee. Without Patterson in the season opener, Ohio State’s Michael Hall wreaked havoc against the Irish offense. Two months later, Davis and Bresee will be twice as difficult to stop no matter who tries to block them. Pay close attention to this trench warfare.

Notre Dame must move the ball on the ground if it hopes to win. Syracuse had some success against the Tigers in the first half of their game because quarterback Garrett Shrader made several productive runs. The Irish don’t have this type of weapon in Drew Pyne, so the yards must come from their trio of running backs.

Clemson’s linebackers are athletic and fast. Carter is used as a Swiss Army Knife in that he has multiple roles in the defense. He will blitz the passer and also drop back to cover Michael Mayer. Leading tackler Trent Simpson and middle backer Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. are also capable players. The Irish will have to run right at this defense rather than try to go wide. Teams don’t get around the corner against Clemson and Notre Dame’s run scheme and personnel have not been particularly effective in getting outside against anyone.

When Pyne drops back to pass, his receivers will maneuver against a secondary that has been inconsistent this season. Braden Lenzy and Lorenzo Styles were silent last week and must rebound. Free safety Jalyn Phillips is the leader of the unit and the second leading tackler for the Tigers. Cornerbacks Nate Wiggins and Sheridan Jones, along with backups Toriano Pride and R.J. Mickens, have had their share of ups and downs to date. Strong safety Andrew Mukuba rounds out the group and sometimes lines up as a nickel back.

Notre Dame has fallen into a predictable pattern of play calls that must be broken on Saturday. First down should not be an automatic running down, but any passes should be higher percentage throws that are less likely to result in second and ten. Pyne simply cannot be expected to beat the Tigers on third and long.

CLEMSON’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Despite their unblemished record, the Tigers have struggled on offense from time to time. Quarterback D. J. Uiagalelei is a 64% passer and a powerful runner at 6’4” 235, yet he has endured unexplained lapses that have caused Swinney to summon freshman backup Cade Klubnik.

The wide receivers have experienced similar dysfunction, although freshman Antonio Williams has emerged of late to provide a boost. Joseph Ngata and Beaux Collins have not produced as expected. Tight end Davis Allen has been a pleasant surprise and is the second leading pass catcher behind Williams. Second tight end Jake Briningstool has also established himself as a legitimate threat, especially in the red zone.

Shipley has been the mainstay of the Tiger offense. He has averaged six yards per carry and is also a capable receiver out of the backfield. The offensive line features a pair of seniors in left tackle Jordan McFadden and center Will Putman, who moved over from right guard this season to fill a glaring need. Last season’s right tackle, Will Parks, moved to guard to backfill for Putnam. These moves created a space at tackle for freshman Blake Miller. All these changes have created a patchwork feel, but so far the Tigers have made it work. Notre Dame’s defensive line is better than any the Tigers have faced this season, however, so the jury is still out.

The Irish linebackers had their best game of the season against Syracuse. Both Marist Liufau and J.D. Bertrand were used as spies on Shrader and did a great job. A similar approach may be needed to keep Uiagalelei from scrambling for long gains. Otherwise, both were assignment solid and demonstrated improved instincts. Getting off blocks quickly enough remains a concern, especially with an explosive back like Shipley.

Safety Brandon Joseph also had his most impactful outing. He will be needed in peak form this week. Unfortunately, several other Notre Dame defensive backs have been liabilities. Cam Hart continues to be the worst tackler on the team and his whiffs have prolonged drives for the opposing team. Clarence Lewis and Houston Griffith are not much better, while freshman Benjamin Morrison’s breakdowns have been in coverage. If the Irish are going to win, all of these players need to step it up.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Clemson’s kicker B.T. Potter has been outstanding this season. He has converted 15 of 17 field goal tries and all 32 extra points. His longest kick is 52 yards. Punter Aidan Swanson averages only 41 yards and has allowed a few productive returns. He hasn’t had one blocked as yet, and Swinney is fully aware of Notre Dame’s recent successes in this area.

“Three games in a row – that might be a record,” hey said. “It’s hard to do that. They’ve done a great job of coming after it. That’s something that’s absolutely got our attention. High alert.”

The Tigers have enjoyed good field position when Shipley has an opportunity on a kickoff return. He averages 31 yards per try. Punt returns by Williams and Will Taylor have been largely uneventful. A windy night might cause both coaches to emphasize simply catching the punts rather than try to set up a return.

Irish kicker Blake Grupe has fallen short of automatic in recent weeks in terms of makeable field goal attempts. A miss in each of the last two games hasn’t caused significant damage but the Irish must cash in on every scoring chance this week. If the game comes down to a three-pointer, Potter gets the edge.

Brian Mason’s charges won’t stop trying to block punts just because Swinney insists he will be prepared. This is a highly motivated and well-coached group. The real challenge will be forcing the Tigers to punt in the first place.

SUMMARY

Success on first down is a major stress point for Notre Dame. Third and long situations play into Clemson’s hands. On third and fourth down in the last three games, Pyne is 8 for 28 for 110 yards and an interception. He is three for 14 for 29 yards when teams drop an extra (8^th) man into coverage. In those situations, his primary target (usually Mayer) is usually double covered and Pyne does not move through his progressions quickly enough. He also repeatedly fails to check down into the flat where worthwhile opportunities have been available. In previous games, the Irish pass protectors have given Pyne sufficient time to smoke a whole cigar in the pocket, yet he still struggled to pull the trigger. He won’t have that level of comfort this week.

Defensively, the Irish must win up front and tackle crisply on the back end. The Tigers offense is potent when they get on a roll but the running game is the element that enables everything else. Stopping Shipley will go a long way toward keeping Clemson out of the end zone and keeping the score within reach. Notre Dame is not going to put 30 points on the Clemson defense, so a low-scoring contest is a must for the hosts.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Which offense will have success in the ground game?
• Will Notre Dame’s defense be able to create turnovers?
• Can the Irish receivers give Pyne viable options against the Tiger secondary?
• Which offensive line will do the best job of protecting its quarterback?
• Can the Irish offense win on first down?
• Will the Notre Dame special teams continue to provide a spark?
• Which coaching staff will adjust most effectively during the game?
• Will Nick Saban run up the score on Brian Kelly?

PREDICTION

The Irish were fortunate last week that the game did not come down to Pyne’s ability to make winning plays. The defense came through with critical interceptions on the very first play and again early in the fourth period when the outcome hung in the balance. The specials teams blocked another punt to put the game on ice. A dominant ground attack made Pyne’s job far easier. It would be nice if any or all of those things were to happen again this week, but that is not likely.

If the difference between these teams comes down to quarterback play as I expect, the Tigers have a decided advantage in size, running ability, arm strength, experience and depth. The Irish can prevail if they get Pyne’s best version of himself, win the turnover battle, and get a magical boost from a boisterous home crowd that propelled them to a memorable upset two years ago. Unfortunately, my practical side tells me this scenario is a bridge too far in 2022.

CLEMSON 27  NOTRE DAME 20 

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