Two weeks ago, Fighting Irish fans were excited about an eight day span that included home victories over North Carolina and Louisville and a road win at Clemson. A free pass to the ACC Tournament quarter-finals seemed certain, and Head Coach Mike Brey talked about finishing in first place for the regular season.

Notre Dame has lost three of four games since then including two losses in a row for the first time in two years, and those two losses weren’t close. Even the one victory was a lackluster performance at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have completed their conference season with a 2-16 record.

What changed? What went wrong?

A New Identity

Understanding the struggles of the last two weeks requires some context.

For years, Mike Brey basketball meant passing and shooting. Typical Notre Dame teams had assists on more than 60% of their baskets, often a percentage in the upper 60s. They were at or near the top of the NCAA assists per game list. The offense worked best when they had inside scorers like Luke Harangody and Jack Cooley. They fed the post, passed out of the double team, and made opponents chase around the perimeter until a shooter was open. When the Irish shot well, they were very hard to beat; but when they couldn’t hit their outside shots, there were no other answers.

The approach has changed since the Irish joined the ACC. Notre Dame has become a team that drives to score. As well as Jerian Grant passed last season, only 55.7% of the team’s baskets were assisted in 2014-15, and only 44.5% of this season’s baskets have been assisted.

Three point shot attempts are down to 32.4% of the mix even though the team’s three point shooting is as good as usual, 35.1% this season vs 34.4% the four preceding seasons.

There are two noteworthy positives in the new approach. The team’s two point shooting is better than ever, 54.1% last season and 51.0% so far this season compared to 47.8% in 2013 when Cooley was making a high percentage from the post. In addition, the emphasis on driving to the basket is getting the Irish to the free throw line an average of 19 times per game.

Why The Change?

When Notre Dame played in the Big East, Brey said that he chose his offense for two reasons. First, Notre Dame’s admissions requirements prevented him from get the quantity of great athletes that teams like UConn, Syracuse, and Louisville could recruit; but he always was able to get guys who could handle the ball and shoot. Second, he wanted to compensate for the lack of great athletes relative to the top teams in the league by running an offense that nobody else in the Big East used. That would make it harder to prepare for Notre Dame than it was to prepare defend a team that ran the same offense that ten other teams in the conference used.

I asked Brey if he changed upon moving to the ACC for similar reasons. That wasn’t it.

“”Not so much the ACC,” Brey said. “It’s personnel. When we had that great week that got us in the big dance, our two big guys were pounding people in the paint… second shots, posting up, going at people’s throats. Those two drive it; and then Steve and Demetrius, we’ve told them, ‘Go drive that sucker. Get fouled.’

“The foul line has been more of a weapon,” Brey continued. “So we’ve not been as reliant on the jump shot as we’ve been in this program. Having said all that, we still were efficient and scoring at a good clip, scoring twos and getting free throws; but we haven’t really been able to do that lately.”

The Hot Streak

The Irish didn’t shoot any better than their season percentages when they beat UNC, Clemson, and Louisville. In fact, their two point shooting was a little down in those games, only 45.4%.

ND didn’t defend all that much better when winning than they have since then either. The only opponent number that is significantly different in the losses compared to the wins is three point percentage, and it’s worse in the losses.

One number stands out. The Irish went to the free throw line an average of 26 times per game in the three big wins. They only averaged 16 free throw attempts in the three losses. It also helped that they made 83.5% of their free throws during the hot streak, but the 71.2% they had in the losses is not awful for a team number.

Simply stated, the Irish succeed when they attack the basket and draw contact. They will make their fair share of those shots and go to the line to complete three point plays; but when they try to avoid contact, they tend to get neither the basket nor the foul.

The Goal

First place is out of the question, obviously; but a double bye in the ACC Tournament remains in play. Because Louisville will not participate, the last free pass to the quarterfinals will belong to either Duke or Notre Dame. Duke has a one game lead going into Saturday’s games, but Notre Dame owns the tiebreaker over Duke.

The Irish must do their part by beating North Carolina State. Then Notre Dame fans will cheer for North Carolina when the Tar Heels visit Duke this evening.

The Cure

For Notre Dame to do its part on Saturday as well as to have any postseason success, it must recommit to taking the ball to the basket and absorbing contact instead of trying to avoid it. Watch for that, and watch to see if the screens that get Jackson and Vasturia on their way to the basket are better.

It will be good news if we see the Irtish shoot 25 free throws vs NC State; and if they don’t become that team again, it will be baseball season sooner than expected.

(Final note: Season stats cited above are for conference games only because stats from patsy games in November and December tend to skew numbers in a major conference team’s favor. Conference games do a better job of telling what a team is doing.)