That's one sentence I didn't ever expect to type before.
Our military is getting to go to school on all the weapons being used by all sides with very little damage to our own armed forces and equipment.
Am I wrong?
..."try out" it's new anti-drone laser. I've also read that Western militaries are on the ground in UKR taking note of tactics, particularly with respect to drones.
Foreign observers have been a feature of military conflict for ages. They were Europeans observers in the American Civil War and American observers in Crimea, for instance.
...which could be stolen or hacked or etc., they either (1) have something else more advanced out there (i.e., the laser is old tech); (2) they need a strong proof point on their new tech; (3) UKR is really really a hairs breadth from the shit.
Maybe (3) doesn't make sense, because then the tech could more readily get poached or captured..
...America's War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History.
Bacevich's theme, if I can paraphrase it, is that since at least 1980 we've been stumbling from policy to policy within the greater concept of War for the Middle East. I would add that we've been ranging from unfocused to screwed up vis a vis Iran since 1954.
The practice may not mean much in two years.
missiles in the end.
Launch of a bunch of useless crap at Israel, Israel shoots most of it down, claim internally through controlled media that you've fully retaliated and killed X number of Israelis.
I don't know why people were worried about this situation, Iran isn't capable of anything else.
After Sulamani was killed in 2020, the Iranians launched a dozen ballistic missiles at a US facility in Iraq, injuring over 100 soldiers. Back in January, in response to the bomb attack in Kerman, the Iranians used similar systems to strike at militant camps in Pakistan, killing or injuring a number of people. Iranian drones have killed three US service members and a defense contractor, and wounded dozens of others. An Iranian drone attack in 2019 took half of Saudi oil refining capacity off line. And it is Iranian drones which are killing Ukrainians and destroying Ukrainian infrastructure on a daily basis.
Never mind how much all of the defense missiles cost. It was a great advertisement for the Arrow system, but those suckers ain't cheap.
This wasn’t an “attack”, it was handbags at 20 paces.
Over 120 ballistic missiles, accompanied by drones launched to arrive at same time, and it wasn’t a serious attack meant to do significant damage? Iran would have to have incredible faith in Israel/coalition defense systems, faith we ourselves do not have, to think not one would reach a target causing significant loss that garners an equal response. It isn’t logical.
I do think they thought it would be relatively limited due to the air defense, but certainly not as ineffective as it was, in fact that was probably unsettling. But they had a communications plan, this was retaliatory in nature, hard but finite, and now we’re even.
They are not as big a foe, nor as isolated a regime, as we prop them up to be.
to defend against. If that ordinance were fired at you and you had no defense you would see fairly quickly how useful it was. If you want I would be happy to push you out of a c-17 with a parachute over a portion of ukraine that receives constant shelling and drone attacks. You can report back on how useless that ordinance is.
Don't mistake as useless those attacks deflected by a better defense.
And have them fly hours to their destination.
I don’t think the drones are useless, but this attack was done purely to save face and to allow Israel (and others) to easily shoot them out of the sky.
As Robert McNamara once said, when talking about the Cuban blockade, “This is language. A new vocabulary, the likes of which the world has never seen”.
And they are certainly expensive, but with all the oil they are selling to China, Irans economy is doing just fine
using missiles to shoot down the drones, not with the drones.
As to flying time -- it's only about an hour more flying time from Iran to Israel as it is from Russian territory to key targets in Ukraine. Even if the move is telegraphed, it still requires 100% success on defense to keep hundreds of pounds of explosives from hitting or crashing in Israel. The link below shows pictures of what happens when a small Iranian drone hit a merchant vessel (killing the captain and a crew-member)
99% success rate.
As I said below, if Iran really wanted to maximize damage it is not that hard for them. Have Hezbollah send in a volley of rockets right before the drones and missiles from Iran are about to get close to Israel's airspace. Overwhelm the Iron Dome and you would have a much lower success rate (Hezbollah reportedly has enough rockets to get through the dome by themselves anyway).
The reason why they didn't do that is pretty telling in my mind. I'm hoping Israel recognizes this is just a response to save face, as I think it's clear our government does, and does not escalate this any further. Heck, Iran even said that it was a retaliation to the Israel attack last week and its now over.
is going to bite the Navy in the ass... having to drive your boat back to port to reload is a tactical nightmare.
Luv ya' Across
UNREP - underway replenishment
SM2 - one of the SAM used for air and ballistic missile defense
VLS - vertical launch System
I suspect the extent and nature of the attack and Israel’s response were largely communicated ahead of time. At the very least, I ran was telegraphing exactly the nature of its attack and made little to no attempt to use basic combined tactics to increase the lethality of the strike. This allows them to respond while simultaneously minimizing the chance that it escalates
And Russia needs Iranian support to continue in Ukraine. Iran can’t provide them that support and fight a war with Israel that will be heavily backed by the United States
It is a big change for Iran to launch from their own land. It certainly is a move to appease their hardliners while also giving the biggest heads up to Israel that missiles and drones were on their way. It seems to be done to save face, while limited the need for Israel to have a severe response.
But, if Iran really wanted to do something they would unleash Hezbollah who have enough rockets to overwhelm the iron dome. This is not the best Iran can do. They are capable of much more. But, It’s what they are most willing to do at this time, IMO.
This is all a big game and Iran is just slightly escalating within the unwritten rules. Hopefully Israel continues with a mostly measured response and just hits back at some mostly useless Iranian military targets or even none Iranian land targets.
proxy weapons depots not in Iran. Hopefully this is the end of it.
What will you say when this symbolic act is met with 3x the force from Israel? Will you blame Israel for responding, or Iran for spinning the wheel of violence?
In response to the 10/7 attack, Israel has waged six months of war. What do you think that they will do in response to an unprecedented attack from Iran? Nothing doesn’t seem like it is on the table. So it is either attack their proxies in Southern Lebanon or attack Iran directly (logistically much more difficult, for sure).
Much different than 10/7
My point is that Israel isn’t known for restraint when it comes to these situations. Given the unprecedented nature of the attack, I can see them striking back much more forcefully to dissuade such action in the future.
if we are being objective Iran was probably within reason with this response — Israel blew ip up two of their generals. The trade of that strike for this futility seems like Israel should just take a win
Hezbollah being front and center. Hamas, too.
I’d say that Israel is justified in any attack on Iran, given their state sponsorship of terrirism in the region.
missiles at Israel. They had no power over that. Yes, the President said "don't" but what else could he say? We couldn't get Iran to stop providing missiles to the Houthis, so why did anyone think we could stop Iran doing something it always wanted to do?
The test is two-fold: (1) do we stand with Israel and assist in its defense? The answer so far is "yes" as we are (apparently) actively participating in its missile defense. Great. (2) can we influence Israel NOT to escalate, and perhaps even to respond asymmetrically. Right now, the Israeli government and the people are all about escalation dominance (ie, going over the top in response in a way that ends all further discussion; see Gaza & Hamas). If we can convince them NOT to launch even more missiles, but instead use sabotage, proxies, etc to make some things go "boom" inside Iran (for example), we will have done a good thing.
Believe it or not, this is a turning point for the entire region. The Biden admin was putting the pieces of the Saudi-Israeli deal back together. This will actually help that come true, if Israel and the US play it right.
Many are protesting against the government there
a hostage release. If a hostage release requires a ceasefire in Gaza, a majority supports that. If it requires a "permanent ceasefire" (an impossibility) with Hamas, a vast majority of Israelis reject it. You have to read the Israeli press to get the sense of it, the coverage here is all about Netanyahu.
like Steve Harvey, when his wife tried to comment on the "antics" of his fam's green-wearing wedding party:
And I still believe our woeful border policy is going to result in a strike here. Some idiot asked what Gaza has to do with Iran and the border when I said that. Idiot.
We lack sound leadership, and it is going to bite us in the ass.
They’re not all looking for a better life for their families.
Killed more Americans in America than any Islamic terrorists since 9-11 anyway. Domestic terrorists or mass shooters will continue to kill more Americans than the over the border boogeyman (I will concede that potentially drug overdoses from stuff coming over the border might be higher).
The fact that sleeper agents from various unfriendly countries exist on our soil was my point, and to me that’s more concerning than domestic terrorists at this point in time.
and historically speaking, they've not killed nearly the number of people that the domestic terrorists have. Instead of spending craploads of money on a wall, it might be better served to have the proper amount of funding for background checks, mental health, etc. Also, it might be good to have more funding for drug rehab and do more to help addicts get straight.
I'm sure some terrorists-type folks are getting into the country because even after 9/11 and the extra scrutiny, it's not that hard to get in, but I question if they aren't finding other means than our southern border. Same with Chinese and Russian agents. They *could* use either border, but the weak spots are more global than that. I suspect they can get into the US far more easily via fake documents than by risking getting caught on the southern border.
I'm just saying the unfriendly agent bug-a-boo hasn't amounted to nearly as many American deaths as the domestic terrorist issues, particularly guns (which aid those foreign agents if they choose to use them as well).
There's nobody in Iran who can forge a passport, rubber stamp a visa, or otherwise?
I would strongly disagree about domestic terrorism. We're seeing an explosion of Christian nationalism, and while it's not Oklahoma City level yet, the intolerance is going to be a brush fire as the election creeps closer.
Whatever you are consuming is nonsense. Seriously while your own city was held hostage by leftist loonies this is what you can come up with? A bogey man white Christian nationalist? What the fuck?
Since you seem to like making "see, I was right, nobody believed me, everyone is dumb but me. Source: my personal opinion" type of posts such as the one above, I think I need to reply.
1. You postulated that Iran has sleeper agents ready to strike and it should be our top threat priority. I disagree, and I cite the GAO's most recent report on domestic terrorism (linked below).
2. You insinuated that said sleeper argents are coming across via coyotes at the border. This is rather silly, given how easy it is to come here legally if one were a nation state actor. You also attempted to link it to the current drumbeat of "porous borders!", which is a concern in and of itself, but a bit of a bridge to directly link.
3. "Held Hostage" is hilarious. You won't find many defending the embarrassing inability of PPB to enact crowd control in 2020 (which was four years ago, btw) or the terrible inability of city/county government to make any sort of decision, but "held hostage"? Please. I was more held hostage by covid, because there were no bars or restaurants to go to. I could walk a dog downtown and shockingly encountered no checkpoints.
No, what happened in 2020 was criminal behavior piggybacking on protests, and it's a crying shame we all became dumbasses and failed to shut it down. It's over, but I won't soon forget.
And speaking of domestic terrorism, I'd say those groups are part of them. Shutting down roads, airports, and bridges is going to. lead to violence, and I have no trouble considering it as such.
But what are they waiting for? At least if you are talking about Iranian sleeper cells.
Soleimani was assassinated over 4 years ago and they have done nothing (outside of some stuff in the M.E). Outside of the Ayatollah, it doesn’t get much bigger than Soleimani. But, no response. They hire goons to try to kidnap or assassinate Iranian dissidents here in the US. They tried to hire a hit man to kill Bolton.
Seems like if they have all of these sleeper cells in the US they would have done something by now.
Iran loves using proxies and hiring outsiders to do their dirty work. They rarely use their own people.
The drugs. And cartels aren't dumb enough to risk shipping people and drugs together.
The article even argues that all getting more strict about border crossings did was shift smuggling from heroin to fentanyl.
Maybe now we’ll recognize Iran is not our friend. I do not want to do another war…
We haven’t even had diplomatic relations with them for 45 years.
But she’s Iranian so we shouldn’t be surprised.
this spineless coward.
Do you propose we bomb Iran? Glad you’re not in charge, if so.
From the article below:
“U.S. officials privately acknowledge they’ve gradually relaxed some enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil sales,” Bloomberg News reported in late August. The purpose of this policy was to encourage Iranian flexibility in nuclear negotiations, yet Tehran has only accelerated its drive toward a nuclear weapons capability.
Before Biden took office, Iran exported an average of 775,000 barrels per day of oil while the “maximum pressure” policy of the Trump administration was in effect. The average figure under Biden in 2023 is 1.4 mbpd barrels. The total estimated value of Tehran’s oil exports since February 2021 is between $88 billion and $98 billion.
In September, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies presented a method for estimating how much of Tehran’s estimated oil revenue is due to the relaxed enforcement of sanctions. Using new data from October, that method indicates that Iran earned an additional $32 billion to $35 billion because of lax sanctions enforcement.
There’s also the $6B that we paid to Iran to release five hostages.
Even going back to Obama, we have been soft on the Iranians. Obama went contrarian to prove that the Iranians could be trusted and bargained with. Since then, Iranian proxies have increased their aggressive behavior in the region. So much for buying goodwill.
There is a huge gap between do nothing and bomb Iran, right?
Who think Biden is awesome. There aren’t even many who think he’s just “good”.
That’s really all that matters.
you live in a swing state, you have the power to help keep a proven incompetent out of control monster out of a retaliatory second term. Everything else pales in comparison. That's your choice. Please own it. I am not interested in engaging in one more debate about Biden and the Democrats. In this case, not to choose really is to choose. (I see that Sununu, much praised in these precincts, says that he will vote for Trump. Of course.)
I suppose if there's a debate to be had, it's how much lasting damage you think Trump will or won't do. For the record, I don't share the hysteria of too many on the left. The country will survive four more years of this incompetent monster. But I'm hard pressed to think of even one way we or the world will be better off (does anyone think, e.g., Trump is going to help reduce the national debt, to pick the most defensible argument my GOP friends can make?). Maybe the fallout (metaphorical?) from four more years will help purge of us of MAGA fever once and for all.
Just like I did in 2016 and 2020.
I refuse to vote for candidates that I do not agree with, because of some lesser evil logic.
Our system is built upon checks and balances. I do not fear the orange monster, I just don't really want to live through it again. But if that is the will of the people, so be it. (Same goes for Biden winning. I'd rather not live through him, or Harris, but it is what it is.)
what happens. I confess I do not understand the indifference. But I could be the one who's wrong and it will just be another four years of watching our country trashed by a human being of unfathomable idiocy and vulgarity. We will, I repeat, survive. We're not Weimar.
While I agree with some, though certainly not all, of Trumps policies, I will not vote for him because I think he is a despicable human being and is unfit to occupy the office.
While Biden seems to be a better man than Trump, I agree with very few of his policies and his refusal to even consider the role of spending in inflation and deficits (admittedly Trump is poor here as well, but not nearly as bad) is disqualifying to me*. This, along with his refusal to address the chaos caused by his border policies are, to me, disqualifying.
* US Debt and defecits are far and away my most important issue.
board's center of gravity, if there is one. And debt and deficit are, as I expected, no. 1. "Indifference": okay, too strong and maybe unfair. I may be excessively grossed out by Trump's miasma of corruption in every sector of personal and public life. He secretes a pheromone that is peculiarly stimulating to a potent strain of American grievance and resentment. I can't think of a comparable figure in our political life from any point in the nation's history. He didn't create the grievance and resentment, which will be there when he finally pays the debt of nature. But he is really gifted at exploiting and stimulating it. Just profoundly depressing to see him gloating as he flies around on Air Force One and dominates our public life. His enemy list will make Nixon's look benign.
The decision is sad. I find Soren’s analysis compelling.
I voted third party in 2016. My vote for Biden in 2020 was the first for a Democrat in more than 20 years. Trump’s level of depravity and malice “mandate” a vote against him.
Sure, plenty of people here will vote for Biden, but the notion that Jimbo is mocking (that this board is full of rah-rah Biden cheerleaders) doesn’t make sense to me.
This board is very anti-Trump, but it’s not at all pro-Biden.
It’s usually based on a relative comparison to Trump.
At the end of the day, whether you vote for Biden because your car is covered in Biden stickers, or you do it by accident, the result is the same. It is a vote to keep him in office.
And is a one line emotipost that provides nothing.
I think because trump is so uniquely incompetent and embarrassing to traditional conservatives, many of them (rightly) have a bit of ennui in their choices this fall. They're not going to magically change all their principles to Democratic Party ones, and why should they? I totally get that!
However, some of them have instead chosen to take one of two routes:
- try to make Biden "just as bad" somehow, vs "wrong within normal parameters".
- attack the straw man that does not exist here; namely the rabid pro Biden voter.
Look, I'd kill for a ranked choice situation and a way out of this ever polarizing binary situation we're in. But we're a long way from "meh I don't care for Bush/Obama but life goes on".
Issues, it will be for the one with the less violent followers who did egg on a crowd to try and overturn the election.
I guess I'm tired of Boomer (or older) Presidential candidates.
Era irán policy that didn’t work then and isn’t working now. Trump had a far superior approach to Iran. Not everything he did was bad and should have ended.
But that is in the past. What we should be doing now is shutting down oil to Russia and telling them we aren’t going to just sanction these two idiots. We are going to bomb houthis and take their tankers until they all come to a table to talk with SA and Iran.
I hate trump but he would likely be in favor of such actions.
Instead we are falling into ww3 like Biden boarding Air Force one.
And again I have been right about all of this. Gaza is flattened. Millions displaced. Multiple states in the region have been sucked in and for those with their heads not up their assed we have now bombed targets in the region and actively defended Israel putting us servicemen at risk.
Other predictions from people who have more time to write because they don’t actually work:
No Iran support via drones to Russia. Wrong
Russia sanctions will cripple them. Wrong
Russian oil market will collapse. Wrong
Regime change In Russia. Holy hell wtf is wrong with some of you.
Biden pivot is good because Iranian women want regime change. Again wtf is wrong with you? Have you been to these countries?
Poland is stocking up on food and preaching learning to eat dirt to survive a drawn out war with Russia.
Bidens border policy is effectively an open border. Some ask how we are supposed to comply with asylum laws and manage the border. Sorry I’m not sure why that is a problem. Europe doesn’t allow such loose requirements, has much stricter rules, and still has incredible problems. Many of you need to get your head out of your asses and read international publications.
Drones coming in slow to keep Iron Dome busy and then back it up with ballistic missiles.
Things I am pondering:
A. Will Hezbollah stay put or attack from north.
B. Does USA just play defense and shoot down missiles or actively participate in a counter.
C. Who does Jordan support? Perhaps Israel due to existing peace treaty?
participate in a counter." We have more than we can handle on our plate already.
Importantly, Israel had done little or nothing to earn more help from us. Bibi's war should not be our war.
How did this start again?
The Jordanian military, along with US and British forces, are helping to track and intercept the drones.