...but I believe this race will play out much like the Evan Bayh-Todd Young race in Indiana in 2016. Bayh, a popular former governor and senator in a red state, had an early double-digit polling lead over Todd Young, a congressman unknown outside of his district. While Bayh didn't trail in a single public poll until October, he lost by 10.
I know little about either of the two Democratic contenders. Both seem to have a wide range of establishment endorsements without an obvious ideological divide between them. Senate races turn on national issues in a way that gubernatorial races do not. Unless whoever gets the D nomination is terrible, Hogan will have a very tough time maintaining the lead. It is true that he is sufficiently popular that the Democrats will have to take the race seriously and spend money on it.
and the poor choices on the Democratic side. Are you aware of the controversy surrounding David Trone and his use of a racist erm at a hearing? Hogan will win here, I have no doubt
You could be right. But you sound exactly like me when Bayh jumped into the race in 2016. "You don't understand, Bayh is sui generis in Indiana, he hasn't gotten below 60 percent of the vote in an election since 1988!"
But his win (and Tester's) last came in a non-Presidential year. I assume it will be tougher to go against a presidential tide which is probably the reason Manchin is not running again (and which also helps Scott and Cruz while hurting Hogan and Tester). That said, this will be a very unique presidential race as it stands.
The GOP has the best possible set up right now in the Senate. The House races could easily go the other way since numerous House pick-ups in 2022 in NY and CA benefited from off-year election.
election. If apathetic Dem voters stay home because they aren't enthused about Biden, it will hurt Hogan's opponent. Same thing on the other side of the aisle.
hasn't happened yet. When I say "name recognition", it's more than simply knowing the names of the candidates. It's knowing their positions and how they carry themselves, etc. Until there's a nominee, people who didn't vote in that party's primary aren't really paying much attention.
I say that with having a lot of admiration for Hogan, that he represents the best of what's left of the GOP, and that he would be a top-notch senator.
But the reality is that it's very hard for even a popular ex-governor to get elected to the Senate as a Republican in a state like Maryland in a year like this because a lot of left-leaning moderates who voted for him for governor and would again have their eyes on who will control the Senate.
I don't know how it will play out and Hogan could well win and even win big, but polls for offices like this that are this early are notoriously unpredictive.
He’s very popular and it’s not like Trone (or Alsobrooks) has been saving dry powder. Trone has had ads running for the better part of a year. You’d think he was running for President. So it’s not a name recognition issue at this point, and Hogan jumped to the top of the race the moment he entered.
Pulled the trigger. From what I can tell (30 years as an MD resident and a center-right independent voter), it’s a recognition that neither of the Dems are strong, for very different reasons. Hogan was floating a couple of balloons about running for president. They never got off the ground. He’s got good political instincts and high integrity. And a solid communicator. He tried to do some good things regarding highways and transit. He’s popular here in part because MD is historically a state that rewards mediocrity, like other states with one party rule. The best evidence of his popularity is the democrats’ principal argument against him.
to write that.
You need to rethink. Hogan is a good, capable, and honest man. He is the best candidate in the field. Vote for him. Don't be a dumb shit.
We should be propping these types up as much as possible, for the sake of both parties and our country as a whole.
The Oregon GOP basically got taken over by Christian Nationalist wackos like Dallas Heard (who themselves have since stepped down, I think).
My former neighbor was the head of the Multco GOP and was pushed out years back by some dude who had the ear of the Proud Boys and brought muscle to a meeting. I can't even concoct a better story.
Even if a decent fellow wanted to ignore these asshats and run on a moderate platform, they'd be vilified as "extremists!" by anyone even slightly left of center.
I think the GOP is beyond saving - they should just bring back the Whigs and abandon it at this point.
Oregon Lefties are so out of touch with reality that anyone who is center left or right of that is "a fascist!!!!". There's no point in running moderate or center-right GOP candidates in Oregon- they'll be labeled MAGA extremists anyways, so why not just run the actual MAGA extremists. It's maddening.
You claim to be a Republican, and this guy seems to embody all the characteristics you'd want a non-Trump Republican to have.
Why would you not support someone like that?
With close numbers in the House and Senate, voting for any Republican could empower a GOP majority. And given that at least today, the GOP is ruled by MAGA, that isn't something I would enable.
A GOP majority completely under the spell of MAGA?
or
A GOP majority where MAGA's power is blunted?
Hogan doesn’t endorse the batshit crazy MAGA agenda (in fact he is very publicly against it and a RHINO in MAGA circles) and I believe he has the integrity not to do it in the Senate. I prefer him to an unabashed progressive like the two alternatives.
At least that's my guess based on his previous posts. Basically, he thinks any Republican win is seen as support of MAGA even if the candidate is not MAGA.
I don't know if he's right or not. It's a hypothetical, and I can see both sides being right --- full purge vs. supporting the type of Republican candidate that embodies non-MAGA Republican.
MAGA isn't going away, at least not any time soon. It's not like the nitwits in places like MTG and Gaetz's districts suddenly will have road-to-Damascus moments and stop believing the nonsense they believe.
Those people always existed, they just existed as a minority within the Republican party up until now. The only solution is to withhold votes from their candidates until the movement recedes into the background again, not to keep normal Republicans out of positions of power where they might do some good. Discouraging normal Republicans means they end up walking away and the task of getting rid of MAGA's becomes much more difficult.
If a Hogan-type was in my district, I'd crawl over broken glass to vote for him.
The closest thing I have is John Cornyn and he's not up for a while.
As noted earlier, I voted in the Texas Republican primary and left most of the boxes blank. It was truly a vote for "Quien es mas loco?" I voted against one guy I spoke to because he was clearly a disphit but little did I know that the guy I ended up voting for was 10x worse.
I think Ted Cruz might actual have a fight on his hands. Beto should've beaten him but Beto's not that bright. Allred is much smarter. Cruz's ace in the hole is probably the presidential election. The Red Hat ACP will be out in droves.
Not to keeping arguing on Barney's behalf, but I can understand his argument for the purge. Basically, the Republican party must be totally destroyed in order for it to be rebuilt.
Personally, I don't think he's right for the reasons that you mention -- MAGA's red state grip is not going away. Combined with the power of stupidity, MAGA wins if Hogan wins or loses. If he loses, then it's a point in their argument (at least, I assume it will be their argument) that Hogan is a RINO and the next candidate there will be full MAGA. If he wins, then he's a Republican/MAGA vote. MAGA only loses if Hogan wins and has the stones to stand up to MAGA. Are there ten Republicans that have been able to pull that off and win re-election?
Is there any chance he votes against the party if Trump wins the election? I just don't see it. Trump and his supporters would make every part of his life a living hell.
Look at Manchin or Sinema recently, or the Gang of Six from years ago, or the ACA vote wrangling process. When every vote counts, a centrist can leverage their vote to extract concessions and alter the bill.
Hogan seems like someone that would join a new Gang of Six to push forward a bi-partisan bill aimed at fixing one of our numerous problems. Look at his rational for entering the race:
“I still don’t have any burning desire to be a senator. I wasn’t looking for a title. I don’t need a job. But I’m just so frustrated with how broken our political system is,” Hogan said in an interview with CNN during a campaign stop at a food market in Baltimore last week. “George Bush was a pretty good salesperson trying to convince me that the party and the country needed me, and I would have had an important voice that I can make a difference.”
Someone that doesn't want the job is the exact person that we need. We have plenty of power hungry pols running around DC already, we don't need another one.
To the contrary, I'm quite sure he's aware of everything you've said.
He's shown no inclination to work with Trump before, why would he suddenly start doing it now?
And what would be the point of MAGA primary-ing him in Maryland? They have absolutely zero traction there.
I don't subscribe to Barney's stance. People should vote for whoever (whomever?) they want. I don't know anything about Hogan beyond this thread. If he's as you and others have described then I hope he wins as I lean toward the notion that principled, moderate Republicans are the key to defeating MAGA or at least keeping it in check. I guess I'm just skeptical that he will cross party lines to vote moderate.
Of course, Hogan is aware of everything I said. It's his career, and I'm barely even a political observer. But, also, it's his career. MAGA can "defeat" him without primary-ing him. They can keep him off desired committees, cut him off from any party financing, etc. Those are just the behind the scenes things.
If I could get a guarantee that Cruz loses in Texas.
I am concerned that with more time the senate becomes more MAGAfied and party leadership/control matters more than individual members.
I really hope that once Trump leaves the scene we can go back to having boring politicians and fights over policy.
Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, George W Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney -- all RINOs who would be rejected by Trump and the MAGA contingent. For God's sake, we are probably less than a decade away from Trump being deemed a RINO which is pretty funny because he is the only one that is actually a RINO since he's a Democrat.
There is a giant swath of the country that feels like they've been left behind, and they aren't wrong. They've been shucked like an ear of corn for 50 years. Well, now there's nothing left but the husk --- and their votes. They don't care who the candidate is, they just want to see the whole thing blown up. I'm not sure I can blame them. I put far more blame on the single-issue abortion voter and the head in the sand debt/deficit voter. They were the ones that decided "I know this candidate is bat shit crazy, but at least they aren't an abortion-loving, heavy-spending Democrat". Nevermind that Republicans regularly run deficits that would make Democrats weak in the knees and that many Republican candidates have far different personal views and experiences with abortion than their political "stance" would suggest.
We've had waves of nativism in the past, accelerating partisanship, etc.
Sometimes it takes a war or some sort of inflection point to reset things. Sometimes people just get tired of fighting each other and passions cool.
The problem right now is moderates have little to no leverage. There are many pro Ukraine/moderate GOP house members. They won't do anything to pressure leadership because they know they would be eaten alive in a primary and it doesn't matter in a general.
My hope is post Trump the MAGA types have less juice in the primary and the party cares a built more about leadership/governing. But alas probably not a hope grounded in reality.
I think it ends with him.
The only common policy across MAGA is who can be the biggest asshole and the answer will always be Trump. The rest is just celebrity and fear. There's no mantle to hand because there's nobody to take it. No one's spent the past 40-50 years polishing his bullshit brand.
But I see people like Tucker Carlson out there, and maybe even Don Jr.
A little name recognition and charisma might get it done.
I guess we'll keep hoping.
He has an animal cunning. He has a deplorable charisma but it is charisma. People should be studying his branding strategies which are less strategy and more finely tuned gut instinct.
I don't think we've had anyone remotely like Trump in 250 years and I don't expect another soon.
The second the GOP stops fearing him, I think it'll be a race to see who can disavow him the fastest and the loudest.
My money's on Marco Rubio. Fuck, I can't believe I voted for that guy in the primary.
It's possible that without the massive bully pulpit that Trump wields that moderate Republicans will be able to start winning primaries again after he's gone. Similar to this Hogan guy, I'm skeptical but hopeful.
Every post you make on this board claims that you're a purported conservative who laments the current state of the Republican party and what Trump has done to it. I hear you. I'm a right of center voter who has voted third party the past two elections because I would never under any circumstance vote for Trump (and live in a solid blue state, so don't have to worry that my third party vote could help Trump win). But if you claim to be an old school Republican, like Larry Hogan, and claim to be sad not to vote for him, why not just vote for him? Because he has an R next to his name? We need some decent people with Rs next to their name to win elections if the party is ever to become something respectable again.
...that a moderate Republican (a true, old school Republican) has such broad appeal in a state like Maryland (high income, high education). It should be a lightning bolt to the GOP to shed the MAGA bullshit and start attacking Democrats from the middle instead of the extreme.
Alas, it will probably remain an outlier.
I don’t think that fact connotes anything about national Republican strategy. The redder the state, the less moderate a Republican candidate (for Senate) needs to be.
POTUS is obviously the one and only election in which a candidate has to attempt to appeal across states. And I think the seeming insanity (to you and me) of the Republican Party at the national level is driven by a fear that, without the MAGA vote, they can’t win the POTUS election.
Edit to add: One of my best friends is a long time MD (Dem) politician and is close friends with Hogan. Sings his praises. My friend and I have long lamented that moderate Rs like Hogan and Charlie Baker (here in MA) have seemingly no chance at the Republican nomination for POTUS for the reason I mentioned above.
party (that is Republicans in Democratic states and vice versa) becomes as common as it used to be even as recently as 15 years ago. It will mean that maybe this ridiculous over-identification by party will have finally diminished at least somewhat.
If the Republicans are in the majority it seems unlikely to be a majority of one where his defection on votes would cause an issue. I would expect the MAGA folks to continue to control the caucus. I dont see how Hogan would be able to change anything Romney has not been able to change.
I heard Adam Kinzinger on a pdcast the other day on the Bulwark podcast. I am paraphrasing Kinzinger and he was discussing the House not the Senate but basically said the crazie hold all the cards because they are the ones willing to blow everything up. Until the "normal" members have both the willingness and the power to do the same the Crazies will continue to rule the roost.
I will gladly trade House control for Senate control for the next 4 years.
Will the GOP get the Senate? Who knows. But it appears Hogan running for Senate considerably increased the chances of that happening. GOP needs 2. While WV is surely one, I could see Dems winning the 7 seats they knew would be tough races (MI, PA, WI, AZ, MT, NV, OH). MD was not supposed to be a tough race. If Hogan wins, then the 7 tough races become more about the size of GOP hold on the Senate. Even 2 of the 7 would be huge. Then even a loss in FL or TX (still big longshots for Dems).
Hogan's entrance really changed things for the GOP.
think was the original poster's idea?
I dont see how it does. If the Republicans end up with a one vote majority in the Senate, control of the House and Biden in the WH will he break with the party line and work for agreements with Biden? If Trump wins will be break with the party and keep the MAGA initiatives from being passed?
factors which would change the direction of the Republican party, Trump failing to become president in 2024 is #1 and is more important than the other nine put together.
direction impossible. However, a loss still would leave lots of work to do. The admission that Biden won and acceptance of the results by the Party leadership and silencing of those who disagree is almost as important.
the influencing. The House is more right wing than the Senate. Just by shifting the power and the influence from the House to the Senate you change the GOP conversation at the highest level. And then the 60 vote rule further moderates the influence of the folks who are outliers in the Senate. MTG (and the like) as a back bencher in the minority in the House is very different from being in a narrow majority. Her prominence fades greatly if House GOP in minority. And if in the majority, it is still reduced by the Senate's majority. Right now we have Peak MTG.
P.S. The Party is what the Party does with power when it has power.
answered is the same one troubling Johnson in the house. Do enough members understand the Responsibility to govern and they go against the Maga caucus trying to blow everything up and are they willing to work with Dems to accomplish that.
I also think your idea presumes Biden is the WH because if it is Trump in the WH I think MAGA will be in full control.
The House is narrowly lost to Dems (GOP gives back some NY and CA pickups) and Senate - I think 52-48 GOP.
Even if Trump wins, a split House and Senate means more or less gridlock. I am OK with that. And anything that does get done will be at the end of a gun motivating both sides (like now with Israel support or when the 2017 Trump tax cuts expire for both businesses and personal taxes at end of 2025).
Hogan adds good voice to the stew - one I don't always agree with but one that would not even exist outside of a Maryland race. We need a few more Josh Gottheimers and Larry Hogans to balance out the MTGs and Matt Gaetzs.